They give us some love. Three Reds made it. It's free content.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/262497.html
Printable View
They give us some love. Three Reds made it. It's free content.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/262497.html
So what is the consensus timetable on when Bruce might make his reds debut? Will he follow a homer like rise or are OF more incremental?
I would think that Bruce would start the year in High A next year and probably be promoted (if continuing to play well) to AA by the end of next year (2007). In 2008, I'd guess that he'd start the year in AA and potentially move up to AAA around mid year (again, if playing well and no injuries). He could be a potential Sept call up in 2008. In 2009, I expect him to be a starting OF on the Reds.
With a guy like Bruce, his play makes the call. He blows up in 2008 like Dunn did in 2001, you bring him up.
Or we could trade him for Coco Crisp. Proven veteren you know.
I'm curious, what is the failure rate of top offensive prospects (who have actually accomplished something in the minors -- not just pure hype monsters) relative to top pitching prospects. It seems like there just aren't that many great offensive guys who fall flat, particularly ones ahead of the curve.
Pitchers flop a lot more often than hitters. At first thought thats what comes to mind. I dont have much to do this evening, I will go over the last 10 years of BA top 100 prospects and do the top 10 hitters and top 10 pitchers from every draft and see what I can come up with.
Here is the lists
There are a lot more pitchers that are in the "never heard of him" or "that guy was a top prospect in baseball?" than there are hitters. Each group has its hits and misses, but the hitters seem a lot more hit than pitchers.Code:2005
Hitters Pitchers
Joe Mauer 1 Felix Hernandez
Delmon Young 2 Scott Kazmir
Ian Stewart 3 Matt Cain
Joel Guzman 4 Adam Miller
Casey Kotchman 5 Chad Billingsley
Rickie Weeks 6 Jeff Niemann
Andy Marte 7 Jeff Francis
Hanley Ramirez 8 Jose Capellan
Lastings Milledge 9 Mike Hinckley
Dallas McPherson 10 Edwin Jackson
2004
Hitters Pitchers
Joe Mauer 1 Edwin Jackson
BJ Upton 2 Greg Miller
Delmon Young 3 Scott Kazmir
Rickie Weeks 4 Adam Loewen
Alexis Rios 5 Zack Greinke
Kazou Matsui 6 Cole Hamels
Grady Sizemore 7 Dustin McGowan
Prince Fielder 8 Gavin Floyd
Andy Marte 9 Chin-Hui Tsao
Casey Kotchman 10 Angel Guzman
2003
Hitters Pitchers
Mark Teixeira 1 Jesse Foppert
Rocco Baldelli 2 Jose Contreras
Jose Reyes 3 Gavin Floyd
Joe Mauer 4 Francisco Rodriguez
Brandon Phillips 5 Scott Kazmir
Hideki Matsui 6 Adam Waitwrights
Miguel Cabrera 7 Jeremy Bonderman
Casey Kotchman 8 John Vanbenschoten
Justin Morneau 9 Sean Burnett
Jason Stokes 10 Rafael Soriano
2002
Hitters Pitchers
Hank Blalock 1 Josh Beckett
Sean Burroughs 2 Mark Prior
Carlos Pena 3 Juan Cruz
Joe Mauer 4 Ryan Anderson
Wilson Betemit 5 Dennis Tankersley
Drew Henson 6 Nick Neugebauer
Mark Teixeira 7 Jerome Williams
Austin Kearns 8 Jon Rauch
Joe Borchard 9 Carlos Hernandez
Nick Johnson 10 Ty Howington
2001
Hitters Pitchers
Josh Hamilton 1 Josh Beckett
Corey Patterson 2 Jon Rauch
Sean Burroughs 3 Ben Sheets
Ichiro Suzuki 4 CC Sabathia
Nick Johnson 5 Ryan Anderson
Carlos Pena 6 Roy Oswalt
Vernon Wells 7 Chin-Hui Tsao
Drew Henson 8 Juan Cruz
Antonio Perez 9 Jerome Williams
Alex Escobar 10 Bobby Bradley
2000
Hitters Pitchers
Pat Burrell 1 Rick Ankiel
Corey Patterson 2 Ryan Anderson
Vernon Wells 3 John Patterson
Nick Johnson 4 Mark Mulder
Ruben Mateo 5 Kip Wells
Sean Burroughs 6 Matt Riley
Rafael Furcal 7 Josh Beckett
Dee Brown 8 AJ Burnett
Josh Hamilton 9 Brad Penny
Alfonso Soriano 10 Wilfredo Rodriguez
1999
Hitters Pitchers
JD Drew 1 Rick Ankiel
Eric Chavez 2 Bruce Chen
Michael Barrett 3 Brad Penny
Pablo Ozuna 4 Ryan Anderson
Ruben Mateo 5 Matt Clement
Alex Escobar 6 Roy Halladay
Lance Berkman 7 John Patterson
Carlos Beltran 8 Matt Riley
Corey Patterson 9 AJ Burnerr
Alex Gonzalez 10 Braden Looper
1998
Hitters Pitchers
Ben Grieve 1 Kerry Wood
Paul Konerko 2 Matt White
Adrian Beltre 3 Kris Benson
Aramis Ramirez 4 Carl Pavano
Travis Lee 5 Matt Clement
Miguel Tejada 6 Rick Ankiel
Todd Helton 7 Brian Rose
Mark Kotsay 8 Ryan Anderson
Chad Hermansen 9 Matt Anderson
Brad Fulmer 10 Eric Milton
1997
Hitters Pitchers
Andruw Jones 1 Kerry Wood
Vladimir Guerrero 2 Matt White
Travis Lee 3 Kris Benson
Migeul Tejada 4 Bartolo Colon
Todd Walker 5 Carl Pavano
Ruben Rivera 6 Jaret Wright
Nomar Garciaparra 7 Roy Halladay
Paul Konerko 8 Matt Morris
Jose Cruz Jr 9 Chris Carpenter
Scott Rolen 10 Braden Looper
1996
Hitters Pitchers
Andruw Jones 1 Paul Wilson
Ruben Rivera 2 Alan Benes
Daren Erstad 3 Livan Hernandez
Derek Jeter 4 Jason Schmidt
Karim Garcia 5 Matt Drews
Vladimir Guerrero 6 Billy Wagner
Ben Davis 7 Bartolo Colon
Derrick Gibson 8 Kerry Wood
Rey Ordonez 9 Chan Ho Park
Richard Hildalgo 10 Rocky Coppinger
Hmm... the hitters do VERY well... almost all of them are quality MLB players. About half of the pitchers seem to pan out.
Also, I didn't realize Votto was quick (24 steals)... I was thinking he was a big bulky power hitter for some reason.
This is significant recognition. 3 players out of 14 total, with all three at positions where the Reds could use an upgrade in the next two years. Big improvement from last year.
The Reds sure have a lot of players on this list, don't they?
How weird is that direct quote from Baseball America about the Cincinnati Reds? Makes me think 2009 or 2010 could be fun.
My understanding is that what we really lack is depth. Sure, now we've got a few guys at the top, but particularly offensively, it doesn't seem like we have much mid-level talent --- Denorfia types who play pretty well but aren't considered high ceiling guys. I'm thinking of a Nick Punto who will never be an all-star but is better than replacement and keeps you from spending a million bucks on Juan Castro...
I don't buy it. When it comes to finding players like Punto, I think it's really a matter of organizational will -- it takes some guts to go with low-pick guys who have relatively pedestrian minor league numbers (take a look at Punto's sometime if you want to be underwhelmed). Who's to say that guys like Drew Anderson, Brendan Harris, Mike Griffin and Justin Turner (guys like Valaika and Loo come more highly touted) can't turn into useful utility infielders in the Punto mold?Quote:
My understanding is that what we really lack is depth. Sure, now we've got a few guys at the top, but particularly offensively, it doesn't seem like we have much mid-level talent --- Denorfia types who play pretty well but aren't considered high ceiling guys. I'm thinking of a Nick Punto who will never be an all-star but is better than replacement and keeps you from spending a million bucks on Juan Castro...
And forget about BA assessments when it comes to "depth" -- after decades of reading that publication, it's my opinion that they trot out an evaluation about depth only to prop up whatever grade they want to assign to an organization (the grade being based primarily on the top prospects plus the chumminess factor -- BA fawns on some orgs as a matter of habit, for whatever reason). Just my opinion...
I fully expect Bruce to be fast-tracked, so I'd challenge him and bump him up to AA next year. I don't know that spending part of the year in High-A next year will really do him all that much good. If he struggles at Chattanooga then you send him to High-A and let him get things together for a month or so and then bring him right back. If he continues to develop as he has, I could see a September call-up next year if the Reds aren't in the playoff picture and a full-time job for 2007. It's probably overly optimistic, but I just get the feeling that this organization is planning on Bruce moving up fast now that he's shown he's legit.