Does this make sense...?

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10-07-2006, 06:29 PM
Ltlabner

Does this make sense...?

I was working a tradeshow booth today and thinking about the whole baseball stats arguments that explode around here from time to time. (yes, was very bored in the booth).

I realized that after being around here since May, this is how I tend to look at a players offensive stat line when it is flashed on the jumbotron at the stadium. These are in order.

(1) BA: Gasp....but I still want to know the average percentage likelyhood of a player putting wood on the ball, putting it in play and getting at least to 1B safely.

(2) SLG: if he makes it to 1B I want to know the relative likehood of him making it an xbase hit.

(3) OBP: while this includes hits, I use this to guage the general likelhood of a player making it on base via a not hit (ie walk)

(4) I've found myself quickly adding OBP and SLG in my head when a players stats are flashed on the jumbotron to get a rough guage of his offensive worth. (please be at least in the high .700's) I do this since they don't list OPS on the score board.

(5) I'll check out runs to see how many times the player has made it home once getting on base to get a quick and dirty idea of speed, and the likelyhood of seeing this guy score (assuming those batting next get their job done)

(6) RBI: I know it's linked to the skill of those in front of him and the line up construction but I still want to know how many times he's driven in a run or if I should get up and get a soda if someone is on base and he's at bat.

I don't know. I'd like to think this is a good ballance in the use of tradional and "newer" stats. I've probably mixed some terms or still have something out of wack but it seems to be where I am at right now.

I guess I am posting this because it's an evoution in my thinking about stats, while still using and not dimissing the "tradional" numbers. I guess this is partly a thank you for some different ways to think about the game, and partly a "here's what I've done with it" sort of post.

I'm not sure why I am really even posting this but like I said, I was bored today and thought I would share some of the madness.
10-07-2006, 09:56 PM
Natty Redlocks

Re: Does this make sense...?

You should come up with a catchy name for that OBP and SLG added together thing.........how 'bout "OBS"?

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)
10-07-2006, 10:01 PM
Ltlabner

Re: Does this make sense...?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Natty Redlocks

You should come up with a catchy name for that OBP and SLG added together thing.........how 'bout "OBS"?

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)

I prefer either IBS or PBS but they are both taken.

I realize that the combination of OBP and SLG is OPS, but they don't list it on the score board at the reds game. Hence, the quick mental calculation.
10-08-2006, 03:42 PM
Spitball

Re: Does this make sense...?

Thanks for sharing your "madness".:thumbup:
10-09-2006, 03:32 AM
Topcat

Re: Does this make sense...?

Where does gut feel and heart come into an equation of numbers. Belief from a coach or team mates? New contact lenses, a lighter bat, the chicken that you ate at a drive by stand, a visit to a sick child and a promise of a homer, a new pending contract, finding out from the love of your life that twins are on the way ? Human factors can not be broken down as numbers. I whole heartedly agree they are exceptional indicators on ability and projections of future success, what I do not agree on is stats being the end all be all.
10-09-2006, 06:36 AM
Ltlabner

Re: Does this make sense...?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Topcat

Where does gut feel and heart come into an equation of numbers. Belief from a coach or team mates? New contact lenses, a lighter bat, the chicken that you ate at a drive by stand, a visit to a sick child and a promise of a homer, a new pending contract, finding out from the love of your life that twins are on the way ? Human factors can not be broken down as numbers. I whole heartedly agree they are exceptional indicators on ability and projections of future success, what I do not agree on is stats being the end all be all.

Trust me, I agree totally. Often times I think managers are squwered because fans look at the numbers and scream when the manager makes a move that flys in the face of said numbers. While all the heek-hack erupts, what gets missed is that maybe the hitter with the better numbers has a stomach ache or is having personal issues that are distracting him. Perhaps the pitcher with the better ERA against RHP has had explosive dirreah for the past 3 days and is physically weak. Maybe a particular player is being sat as a punishement or lesson for some team rule infraction but the manager isn't broadcasting it to the world.

Because 95% of the time we have no idea what is going on beyond the sceens I give managers the benefit of the doubt when a move is made and people are screaming that he doesn't understand stats, or is a dunderhead.