Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Quote:
Originally Posted by
OnBaseMachine
So you still think the Reds should have traded Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto for Erik Bedard? A two year rental who is having a solid but not great season and has been injured twice already. That trade would have set the Reds back another five years.
Yep. By adding Bedard and factoring in the loss of a Bruce/Cueto, the Reds would've started the season maybe 6-7 games worse than the Cubs talent wise this season instead of the 9 that it looked like they were.
The Cubs would've basically just nullified that one year "gain" with this trade and the Reds would basically be nowhere fast with the cupboard bare....
Going for broke early when you don't have the stamina to finish the sprint is a sure way to lose the race.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
I can honestly say I have no clue what you are talking about.
I am afraid that was clear back in MArch.
And from the responses so far from the samo players on this board, none of you still have any clue what I mean......so, I have been poor at making my point, but I am not going to try again, so, it is what it is.
I guess it is goooooo Cubbies!
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Quote:
Originally Posted by
red-in-la
I am afraid that was clear back in MArch.
And from the responses so far from the samo players on this board, none of you still have any clue what I mean......so, I have been poor at making my point, but I am not going to try again, so, it is what it is.
I guess it is goooooo Cubbies!
Okay so I don't get your point.
But looking back, how would the Reds be better off by going for it this year and saying screw the future? We wouldn't be anywhere near the Cubs with a Bedard, and lose a big chunk of the future.
Whatever your point is, I'm not sure how the Reds would be better off by making a trade like those you were a heavy proponent of. The target staying fixed, or moving is still far and away above the Reds right now. Erik Bedard doesn't change that. Your shooting for 80-85 wins and at the same time arguing that we need more than that.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
You are the guys assuming I meant they should screw the future. You make moves, you then make other moves, you then make more moves.
The Reds idea of a move is giving Corey Patterson 3 million dollars.
My point was, IF they were going to compete it had to be soon, because JR and Dunn would for sure be gone and Harang, Arroyo and Phillips might well be gone (or hurt or whatever) by the time they could build a competitive rotation from kids.
Along the way, I also asked, as Haren, Bedard, Blanton (and yes, even Santana) went elsewhere, if they cannot compete with these moves, if they couldn't got make moves like this TO COMPETE, then they never will again.......not without a couple of really lucky drafts where they happen upon 12 or so STARS at the same time (in two years).
So, it may have failed big time, OK, but if it failed, forget about it and become a Cubbie or Yankee fan.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Quote:
Originally Posted by
red-in-la
You are the guys assuming I meant they should screw the future. You make moves, you then make other moves, you then make more moves.
The Reds idea of a move is giving Corey Patterson 3 million dollars.
My point was, IF they were going to compete it had to be soon, because JR and Dunn would for sure be gone and Harang, Arroyo and Phillips might well be gone (or hurt or whatever) by the time they could build a competitive rotation from kids.
Along the way, I also asked, as Haren, Bedard, Blanton (and yes, even Santana) went elsewhere, if they cannot compete with these moves, if they couldn't got make moves like this TO COMPETE, then they never will again.......not without a couple of really lucky drafts where they happen upon 12 or so STARS at the same time (in two years).
So, it may have failed big time, OK, but if it failed, forget about it and become a Cubbie or Yankee fan.
All of these teams making these moves have payrolls significantly bigger than the Reds do and thus can make mistakes a little easier than the Reds can because they can buy their way out of them a little easier.
Still, the point remains, even if the Reds did make any of those moves, they would still suck, be under .500 and likely not have a future nearly as bright as they do with Cueto/Bruce/Votto.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Trying to compete in a window centred around Griffey was a flawed idea to begin with. Unless the Reds traded all their good prospects to grab Haren, Bedard, and a bat, they wouldn't stack up with the Cubs. To make a real push to win now, it would have to be a "screw the future" approach.
The worst thing they could have done was to trade enough prospects to hinder the future, and at the same time come up short in the now. Something edabbs has stressed, and one of the few points I agree with him on has to do with lining up all of your assets to be at their peak at the same time. It makes more sense to have a 70 win season and a 90 win season rather than two eighty win seasons. Billy Beane has made the same point that it's foolish to be stuck in a continuous 75 win type season.
The Reds were too flawed to compete now, so they are probably best served making a run at the Votto-Bruce-Cueto-Volquez, etc window. Those are the marquee talents of the Reds... use expensive chips and secondary chips to build around those guys. Don't get rid of those guys to accomodate the Griffey's of the world.
So I agree, if the Reds wanted to seriously compete this year, they should have traded all of their prospects to get some big time talents. They had lots of good chips to make a 1-2 year run, but they would be completely screwed after that. That's likely why the Reds didn't do that, as their chips would be best served to accomodate the more talented, better designed core group of players. As such, competing right now really wasn't a realistic goal in the best interest of the franchise. They would have probably been better served to move guys like Arroyo, Dunn, Encarnacion, and secondary pieces to stockpile young talent and make a really strong group for 2009 and beyond.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
I hate the payroll argument. The Reds are a mid payroll team because they want to be not because they have to be. And times have been a changing. That said, I still wouldn't have traded the farm for Haren, Bedard or even Santana. It's not how much you spend, it's how you spend it. Remember the Orioles in the late 90's? Huge payroll, crap team.
Getting Hardin doesn't mean the Cubs win the World Series. It means they have a #1A starter that is a HUGE injury risk that has been on the DL twice this year.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
And Doug, if they cannot compete now, don't put it on Cueto/Bruce/Votto to fix it. They will need a whole lot more.
Do you think the Reds will improve if they lose JR, Dunn, Phillips and maybe Harang over the next couple of years? Throw in the fact that you have no use for Hairston or Hopper two guys with at least some chance of hitting. Just who are the others around those few guys you point to that are going to make the future so bright?
As I said over and over again, the Reds, to compete, had to be able to make competitive moves. If you are saying they aren't capable now, maybe they never will be. They either had a chance with a fair amount of talent right now, or they are the Pittsburgh Pirates. Choose your poision.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Quote:
Originally Posted by
red-in-la
And Doung, if they cannot compete now, don't put it on Cueto/Bruce/Votto to fix it. They will need a whole lot more.
Do you think the Reds will improve if they lose JR, Dunn, Phillips and maybe Harang over the next couple of years? Throw in the fact that you have no use for Hairston or Hopper two guys with at least some chance of hitting. Just who are the others around those few guys you point to that are going to make the future so bright?
As I said over and over again, the Reds, to compete, had to be able to make competitive moves. If you are saying they aren't capable now, maybe they never will be. They either had a chance with a fair amount of talent right now, or they are the Pittsburgh Pirates. Choose your poision.
by more do you mean a 3b that can OPS in the upper .800's? check.
How about a closer with shut down abilities? check.
Setup guy just as good as your closer, making just over the league minimum? Check.
How about a LH reliever that is now healthy and dominating.
The Reds have more than three pieces, and I didn't even mention Adam Dunn.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Great point TRF....the Reds are 10.5 back with all that talent AND, the guys they are chasing just managed to get, as their GM says, one of the two impact arms available....oh, and I almost forgot, where did the other one go?
Besides managing a 43-47 record
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Quote:
Originally Posted by
red-in-la
As I said over and over again, the Reds, to compete, had to be able to make competitive moves.
Not trading Bruce and Cueto, was a competitive "move" IMHO.
It's probably not possible to sum up everyone's arguments against many of the proposed "blockbuster" trades that some equated with being competitive. Generally though I think it's fair to say the argument was that the Reds would be getting less back than what they'd have to give up. While there may be a time to pull the trigger on a deal like that, given the current talent level, such a trade would've been like standing on a treadmill that was about to slide backwards down a steep incline.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
red-in-la
If you are saying they aren't capable now, maybe they never will be. They either had a chance with a fair amount of talent right now, or they are the Pittsburgh Pirates. Choose your poision.
I'd suggest that is a false choice.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
red-in-la, what the heck are you talking about? Do you honestly believe that any of the big much debated moves would have helped the Reds in 2008? Do you think this team would be better off without two of Bruce/Cueto/Votto and even Bailey?
I am baffled as to what your, I told you so argument is?
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Wow. That's a great baseball trade for both teams. And frankly, even though the Cubs are rolling the dice that Harden can stay healthy for the season, he's the kind of pitching addition that can throttle other teams in the playoffs. When he's healthy he's one of, if not the, best starting pitcher in the game. Gaudin, while not a dominant reliever by any stretch of the imagination carries additional value due to his ability to start. Kind of a Harden "insurance policy" so to speak. This is a solid short-term medium risk/high reward deal for the Cubs who are busting out all the stops to go for it this season.
From the A's side, Sean Gallagher is the obvious prize, with MiLB rates of 9.02 K/9 and 0.49 HR/9 at 22 years of age. The guy profiles as well, if not better, than our own Johnny Cueto and I'm surprised the Cubs would leverage him in a deal like this, but they're in the "now" so I can understand.
The remainder of the return is very solid as well. The A's got the good Patterson (Eric knows how to take a BB) and Matt Murton is a decent OF who's moving into his age-prime years. Josh Donaldson is a very interesting guy as the lowest-level member of the deal and he's had his good (2007, Boise- 1.075 OPS) and his bad (2008, Peoria- .625 OPS) in similar sample sizes. His reality is likely somewhere in between and that's worth a grab considering the rest of the return is MLB-ready and talented.
The Cubs got what they wanted, and possibly what they needed. However, the A's also received pieces that can help the MLB team right now. Frankly, I'm amazed that the A's continue to mine this kind of return. They have a team that's currently 4th in the AL (6th in MLB) in Run Differential and they just gave up another high-level SP for a return that can help now and over the long-term. Hopefully, the Reds are taking notes.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Beane gives away another starter. Imagine that. I sure wish the Reds would have gotten Dan Haren. Oakland's days of being serious contenders are a long, long way away. Billy Beane will be gone before it happens again. You just don't give away starting pitching for "hope".
If Rich Harden is healthy, he will be one of the 3 or 4 best starters in the league.
Re: Cubs Acquire Rich Harden
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SteelSD
I'm surprised the Cubs would leverage him in a deal like this, but they're in the "now" so I can understand.
And there is the real point. The Reds weren't in the "now" during the offseason. The Cubs simply needed Harden as a single glove to compete in the "Michael Jackson lookalike contest."
The Reds are still figuring out how to moonwalk.