Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
Really? So how do you explain the Reds' pitching being 14th out of 15 in the NL in RA?
Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA
That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.
If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:
Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Francisco Cordero
Jared Burton
Bill Bray
Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
To put it bluntly, if Jay Bruce doesn't start at least 25 games per month, the Reds need to fire Dusty Baker.
If it comes down to Walt vs. Dusty, Dusty will lose every time.
But I don't think it will come to that.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SMcGavin
Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA
That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.
If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:
Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Francisco Cordero
Jared Burton
Bill Bray
Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.
Good stuff right there.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
*BaseClogger*
A lack of groundballs and flyballs? :D
Well ...
Code:
Ball-in-Play Rates
Reds NL
GB% 43.19% 44.82%
GB BABIP .237 .231
FB% 34.52% 36.02%
FB BABIP .147 .143
LD% 22.30% 19.16%
LD BABIP .740 .720
If the Reds had league average BIP percentages, then they'd have 42 less line drives allowed. Those 42 line drives would instead be dispersed as ground balls and fly balls. And of those 42 extra line drives, 30-35 of them would be turned into outs if they were ground ball balls or fly balls.
The BABIP differences between the Reds and the NL in ground balls and fly balls is roughly a half dozen balls over the season so far. That's it, nothing more.
Everything else is due to a combination of A) a high line drive percentage, and B) more of the Reds' line drives allowed end up as hits than the NL average. Defense cannot at all be blamed for the former, and it only has a small share of the responsibility for the latter (approximately a half dozen balls here).
Really, put it together and the Reds defense is only 12 balls behind the NL average once you account for the types of hits that the pitching staff is allowing.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SMcGavin
Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA
That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.
If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:
Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Francisco Cordero
Jared Burton
Bill Bray
Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.
This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.
Depth.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.
Depth.
It's nothing of the sort. It's the seven pitchers who are going to be on this team next season. Some are off to good starts, some are off to bad ones. Cherry picking would be keeping Affeldt on the list while taking off Arroyo and Cueto. The fact is the success/failure of Fogg, Affeldt, Lincoln, Mercker have zero bearing on how good the Reds will be next season.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.
Depth.
But those three are part of the future, so why would he remove them? If any of the top 5 of that list are on the Reds next year I'll be surprised.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SMcGavin
It's nothing of the sort. It's the seven pitchers who are going to be on this team next season. Some are off to good starts, some are off to bad ones. Cherry picking would be keeping Affeldt on the list while taking off Arroyo and Cueto. The fact is the success/failure of Fogg, Affeldt, Lincoln, Mercker have zero bearing on how good the Reds will be next season.
There's a ton of things that will have a bearing on how well that identified "core" performs next season.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
Guys fill out. They become stronger. 22 is young.
I too am waiting for Cueto to grow 5 inches and become stocky rather than the bean pole he is.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
And I never predicted failure for Volquez. Not once.
This is puzzling then:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
I would absolutely not throw out Fogg just yet. Not with Volquez's volatility. He's very likely to be out of the rotation by the middle of May with his control problems. There's just no stability in this rotation; need as many warm bodies as possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
Captain, I have plenty of credibility. Consistently. Your shifting mirages, parries and dodges in arguments have been your hallmark. You assert something, retract it, try to argue that you never said it.
Seriously. I sometimes wonder if you even bother reading my thoughts before you argue them.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
14 out 15 in the NL in pitching.
This season is beyond lost.
The Reds still have 111 games left.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cyclone792
Well let me ask you this:
What's responsible for a high line drive rate? Bad pitching? Bad defense? Bad luck?
It's a little bit of Column A and a little bit of Column C, but it certainly isn't any of Column B.
The defense certainly can't be blamed for a high line drive rate.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jojo
I too am waiting for Cueto to grow 5 inches and become stocky rather than the bean pole he is.....
This is puzzling then:
Seriously. I sometimes wonder if you even bother reading my thoughts before you argue them.
So how does my arguing that Volquez would be on a short leash due to his storied control problems make me pessimistic? It's pretty clear that I was arguing worst-case scenario for him, not career-ending failure.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
There's a ton of things that will have a bearing on how well that identified "core" performs next season.
Well, yeah. The success/failure of Fogg/Mercker/Affeldt/Lincoln isn't one of them. Not sure what point you're trying to make here.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SMcGavin
If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:
This seems like a very reasonable approach.
Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
I'll see, but it will be Jocketty's revamping that gets it done, if it indeed gets done. (Cueto's at least two or three years from really contributing, if ever).
Whoa. Already giving up on Johnny Cueto after a few rough starts. The only downside to calling up Jay Bruce is how some fans will react when he goes through his first slump.