Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
traderumor
Without looking at all the scenarios, I imagine the "don't make the playoffs" scenario is not very likely on the probability scale.
If the Bengals lose to the Ravens (and the Ravens beat the Pats), all it would take is Miami winning their final two games (@Buf, NYJ).
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RiverRat13
Week 17 against Baltimore could present a crazy all-or-nothing scenario for the Bengals. If:
- Miami beats Buffalo and NYJ
- Baltimore beats NE
- and Cincy beats Minnesota...
...then the Bengals game against Baltimore the last week would mean that a win would give them the #2 seed and a bye and a loss would knock them out of the playoffs.
Just to add another layer of craziness to that scenario: the Bengals would still make the playoffs if they lost to the Ravens in Week 17 if New England also lost to Buffalo. In that case, the Dolphins would win the AFC East, and New England would be out of the playoffs.
And by the way, that Bengals/Ravens game could easily be flexed. It will depend on how the NFC North and NFC East races come down--there are many scenarios where Bears/Packers and Cowboys/Eagles could also be for a playoff spot. Point being, though, that we could know going into a Sunday night game that the Bengals will either have a bye or will be going home. That would be mind boggling.
But all of this depends on the Bengals beating the Vikings, who have looked pretty good lately. And it looks like Peterson will be back this week.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
traderumor
Because Rodney Harrison's opinion is representative of the league's opinion is a problem with the opinion that is not based on factual information, so why should a Bengals fan care?
His opinion is based on fact. Doug already posted the stats for the Bengals last 10 primetime games. I didn't need Rodney Harrison or Doug to tell me though, because I already knew. On the flipside, I'm glad the Bengals have these primetime games to play now, because there was a several-year period in which we didn't have any. When the schedules are finalized and released, the first thing I do is look to see if we have any primetime games, because those are my favorite. Now we have to start winning our share of them.
Just like winning a payoff game, it's a hump the franchise has to get over. It doesn't carry the same importance as a playoff game obviously, but for a lot of fans, including most of them I know, it does have meaning.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
top6
And it looks like Peterson will be back this week.
The Vikings would be smart to just shut him down for the rest of the season. :)
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BuckeyeRedleg
If the Bengals lose to the Ravens (and the Ravens beat the Pats), all it would take is Miami winning their final two games (@Buf, NYJ).
Bengals lose to Ravens 50% chance
Ravens beat Pats 50% chance
Dolphins win last 2 games 70% chance
Feel free to adjust my numbers but at those odds, (if anything erring slightly towards the bengals missing the playoffs), there is only an 18 percent chance of all that happening.
I want the Bengals to get in as I hate the Ravens, but all that said, I don't think the Bengals want any piece of the Ravens in a do or die game.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
Bengals lose to Ravens 50% chance
Ravens beat Pats 50% chance
Dolphins win last 2 games 70% chance
Feel free to adjust my numbers but at those odds, (if anything erring slightly towards the bengals missing the playoffs), there is only an 18 percent chance of all that happening.
I want the Bengals to get in as I hate the Ravens, but all that said, I don't think the Bengals want any piece of the Ravens in a do or die game.
Amen brother. It's a scary proposition.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
top6
Just to add another layer of craziness to that scenario: the Bengals would still make the playoffs if they lost to the Ravens in Week 17 if New England also lost to Buffalo. In that case, the Dolphins would win the AFC East, and New England would be out of the playoffs.
And by the way, that Bengals/Ravens game could easily be flexed. It will depend on how the NFC North and NFC East races come down--there are many scenarios where Bears/Packers and Cowboys/Eagles could also be for a playoff spot. Point being, though, that we could know going into a Sunday night game that the Bengals will either have a bye or will be going home. That would be mind boggling.
But all of this depends on the Bengals beating the Vikings, who have looked pretty good lately. And it looks like Peterson will be back this week.
Not a guy you want to miss a tackle on like they have been doing the last few weeks.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
Bengals lose to Ravens 50% chance
Ravens beat Pats 50% chance
Dolphins win last 2 games 70% chance
Feel free to adjust my numbers but at those odds, (if anything erring slightly towards the Bengals missing the playoffs), there is only an 18 percent chance of all that happening.
My unscientific percentages would be:
Bengals win division: 50%
Bengals get wild card: 35%
Bengals stay home: 15%
They could even win the division this weekend with a win over the Vikings and a Ravens loss to the Pats. Of course, that would probably kill the 2-seed. I still haven't decided who I want to win that Ravens-Pats game. I'm feeling kind of greedy and want the 2-seed, so I think I'll pull for the Ravens.
Go Bengals
Go Baltimore
Go Buffalo (insurance)
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
traderumor
Without looking at all the scenarios, I imagine the "don't make the playoffs" scenario is not very likely on the probability scale.
Too possible for comfort.
Miami has a pretty soft remaining two games, meaning they will likely finish at 10-6. If Baltimore beats Cincinnati in week 17, they would get the 2 seed. The Bengals and Dolphins would be tied at 10-6 but Miami holds the tie break with the head to head win.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
If the Bengals lose to the Vikings at home this week, they don't deserve to go to the playoffs. Losing in Pittsburgh was predictable and was likely to happen. I don't think less of them because of that game. Following that up with a loss at home to a bad Vikings team would be a choke job.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
New York Red
His opinion is based on fact. Doug already posted the stats for the Bengals last 10 primetime games. I didn't need Rodney Harrison or Doug to tell me though, because I already knew. On the flipside, I'm glad the Bengals have these primetime games to play now, because there was a several-year period in which we didn't have any. When the schedules are finalized and released, the first thing I do is look to see if we have any primetime games, because those are my favorite. Now we have to start winning our share of them.
Just like winning a payoff game, it's a hump the franchise has to get over. It doesn't carry the same importance as a playoff game obviously, but for a lot of fans, including most of them I know, it does have meaning.
Now that the circle is complete....one more time, to use that record to make the conclusion you are is statistics abuse. Carry on, if Rodney Harrison says it, who am I to question.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
It hasn't worked out the last few times when week 17 meant nothing. Week 1 of the playoffs starts in Week 17 at home and hopefully goes from there.
Regardless of the outcome next week, Bengals will be playing for at worst the #4 seed at home.
Miami won't have it easy in Buffalo this weekend.
Not one of the AFC contenders wants the Ravens to get into the playoffs.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BuckeyeRedleg
My unscientific percentages would be:
Bengals win division: 50%
Bengals get wild card: 35%
Bengals stay home: 15%
They could even win the division this weekend with a win over the Vikings and a Ravens loss to the Pats. Of course, that would probably kill the 2-seed. I still haven't decided who I want to win that Ravens-Pats game. I'm feeling kind of greedy and want the 2-seed, so I think I'll pull for the Ravens.
Go Bengals
Go Baltimore
Go Buffalo (insurance)
According to this site (http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html), the Bengals have about a 74% chance of winning the division, a 15% chance of being the wildcard and an 11% chance of missing the playoffs altogether.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
traderumor
Without looking at all the scenarios, I imagine the "don't make the playoffs" scenario is not very likely on the probability scale.
Wrong actually - it's quite reasonable at this point that the Bengals may not make the playoffs. If I had to quantify it from the hip, I'd say maybe 20% or so (Dolphins [vs. Bills/Jets] and Ravens [vs. Pats/Bengals] win out).
I like the all-or-nothing scenario of the 2 seed or missing the playoffs. I'd rather see the Bengals collapse and some drastic changes (elevate Zimmer to HC?) then see the Bengals back into the playoffs and lose first round on the road (once again).
I can't envision a scenario where the Bengals win in Baltimore after playing them at home. A good coach like Harbaugh makes adjustments and has his team ready to play in the big game. Can't say the same for Marvin.
Therefore, I'll be rooting for the Ravens to beat New England this Sunday, setting up the all-or-nothing scenario in Week 17.
Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Benihana
Therefore, I'll be rooting for the Ravens to beat New England this Sunday, setting up the all-or-nothing scenario in Week 17.
I'll root for a Bengals win accompanied with New England win - and a division title.