Re: Walks to Votto and OBP
Dusty stated the other day "he wants guy's to be more aggressive". Coaching coupled with several guys who are contact challenged lead to a low OBP team.
Re: Walks to Votto and OBP
Cozart didn't walk much in the minors.
Phillips has never walked much in his career.
Ludwick has never walked much in his career.
Chris Heisey didn't walk a ton in the minors and hasn't walked much in his MLB career.
Votto has always walked at a very high rate. Bruce didn't walk a ton in the minors, but has seemingly improved his walks as he has aged (not surprising with someone who progressed as fast as he did). Hanigan and Mesoraco have their fair share of walks.
To me it seems more like personnel rather than coaching.... with the exception of Stubbs, who always walked a lot. I get the idea with him being more aggressive early, but it really isn't working so far.
Re: Walks to Votto and OBP
Too many 7 and 8 hole types in the line-up. Pitchers don't fear getting burned so they pound the zone...
...Except to Votto and sometimes Bruce.
Its really that simple IMO. A lefty bat or two to at least make them change the formula from get ahead on the first pitch, throw balls that break away from all those RH bats and watch them expand their zone late in the count because they fell behind early.
Re: Walks to Votto and OBP
I thought it would be interesting to see how the Reds regulars rate across contact ability, discipline and power. So I did this quick and dirty look at Contact%, BB% and ISO.
I looked at league averages since 2010 and then took what I thought what a reasonable range around them to get a low, medium, and high category and assigned those to our regulars based on their performance 2010-2012. I then assigned 1, 2 or 3 points accordingly . Here's what I came up with.
Code:
Contact%: <Low> 76% <Med> 86% <High>
BB%: <Low> 6.5% <Med> 10.5% <High>
ISO: <Low> .120 <Med> .180 <High>
Contact Disc. Power Total
Votto Med High High 8
Rolen Med Med High 7
Hanigan High High Low 7
Bruce Low Med High 6
Cairo Med Med Med 6
Frazier Low Low High 5
Heisey Low Low High 5
Cozart Med Low Med 5
Phillips Med Low Med 5
Stubbs Low Med Med 5
Ludwick Low Med Med 5
Average 1.6 1.8 2.4
Rembering that 2 is, theorhetically, league average, I think that looks about right. Below average contact, slightly below average discipline, above average power. Of course, when it comes to producing runs, these 3 things aren't equal, but I think the composition is right.
Re: Walks to Votto and OBP
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
I thought it would be interesting to see how the Reds regulars rate across contact ability, discipline and power. So I did this quick and dirty look at Contact%, BB% and ISO.
I looked at league averages since 2010 and then took what I thought what a reasonable range around them to get a low, medium, and high category and assigned those to our regulars based on their performance 2010-2012. I then assigned 1, 2 or 3 points accordingly . Here's what I came up with.
Code:
Contact%: <Low> 76% <Med> 86% <High>
BB%: <Low> 6.5% <Med> 10.5% <High>
ISO: <Low> .120 <Med> .180 <High>
Contact Disc. Power Total
Votto Med High High 8
Rolen Med Med High 7
Hanigan High High Low 7
Bruce Low Med High 6
Cairo Med Med Med 6
Frazier Low Low High 5
Heisey Low Low High 5
Cozart Med Low Med 5
Phillips Med Low Med 5
Stubbs Low Med Med 5
Ludwick Low Med Med 5
Average 1.6 1.8 2.4
Rembering that 2 is, theorhetically, league average, I think that looks about right. Below average contact, slightly below average discipline, above average power. Of course, when it comes to producing runs, these 3 things aren't equal, but I think the composition is right.
Very interesting post, I enjoyed reading it, thanks. The outcome is what one might expect, but it's interesting to see how you got there.
Re: Walks to Votto and OBP
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
To me it seems more like personnel rather than coaching
Spot on. I know it's a popular narrative out there to say Dusty turns these guys into hackers, but they're pretty much the same hitters they've always been.
Anyway, the take-and-rake philosophy that was so popular last decade is partially dependent upon pitchers' fear of "rake." When that fear isn't present and pitchers are coming right after hitters -- and the hitters themselves are a little contact-challenged -- then I don't have a problem with what Dusty's saying. They're making most of our guys hit their way on, and many times the most hittable pitch in an at-bat is the first or second one as the pitcher tries to get ahead in the count. That doesn't mean swing no matter what, though, which is the line between "aggressive" and "hacking."
Re: Walks to Votto and OBP
Quote:
Originally Posted by
IslandRed
Spot on. I know it's a popular narrative out there to say Dusty turns these guys into hackers, but they're pretty much the same hitters they've always been.
Anyway, the take-and-rake philosophy that was so popular last decade is partially dependent upon pitchers' fear of "rake." When that fear isn't present and pitchers are coming right after hitters -- and the hitters themselves are a little contact-challenged -- then I don't have a problem with what Dusty's saying. They're making most of our guys hit their way on, and many times the most hittable pitch in an at-bat is the first or second one as the pitcher tries to get ahead in the count. That doesn't mean swing no matter what, though, which is the line between "aggressive" and "hacking."
I haven't done any in-depth studies or anything, but I'm coming around to Dusty's line of thinking as well. Gomes was a great example last year. He was extremely patient early in the year, but when pitchers figured it out, he was 0-2 every at bat and had nothing resembling the bat skills to claw his way out of pitcher's counts. I'm all for guys like Stubbs and Heisey letting it rip on a good pitch early.
