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Why All The Negativity?
Have to ask why all the negativity towards the Reds moves this offseason? They go out and shore up the bullpen, acquire a good fielding third baseman that is a capable hitter in the seventh spot of the order. They acquire a lefty pitcher capable of winning 15 games.
But judging by reactions on this board, you would think the Reds don't have a clue to what they are doing. They don't spend money they get criticized. They spend money and people complained that they overpaid.
Seems to me no matter what they do it won't be to the fans satisfaction. Even if they acquired Randy Johnson you would have people complaining the talent the Reds gave up and assuming Johnson's contract.
The Reds have money. They just don't tell the world they do. It helps them in their negotiations with the agents.
I have to say if you can't get excited about the moves the Reds have made without trading anyone with the exception of Moseley, then nothing will. I can hear it now if the Reds are winning next year with fans saying another collapse is just around the corner.
Like I said the doom and gloom on this board by some people is amazing considering the Reds haven't even played a game yet for the 2005 season.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
Krusty,
What I see is accentuating the downside of the transactions and looking at the deals on an individual basis. From the posts you've made, it seems you recognize that the whole may be greater than the sum of its parts. That part of the equation seems to be missing from the analyses I've seen that are dead set against what the Reds have done.
Personally, Milton is pricey, and I think he is being paid about $3M a year too much. But then, when I look at the market, I do believe that he was likely to get the same money elsewhere, so in that sense we didn't overpay.
I can see where both camps are coming from, and like most things, you can throw out the extreme "Totally Hate It, we're doomed" opinions on one end and the extreme "Great job DanO, we're now contenders" opinions on the other end and the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by traderumor
Personally, Milton is pricey, and I think he is being paid about $3M a year too much. But then, when I look at the market, I do believe that he was likely to get the same money elsewhere, so in that sense we didn't overpay.
When Joe Mays gets 7.25 a year it's gonna be hard to pick up guys for pennies.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by westofyou
When Joe Mays gets 7.25 a year it's gonna be hard to pick up guys for pennies.
That was my thought this morning. I know some are skeptical about what Milton was gonna get from the big boys, but the Phils paid him $9M last year, so its reasonable to assume that he would get similar money in this market. From his perspective, he could say he had a good season last year, blame the ballpark for the outrageous home runs allowed, and say he actually took a pay cut to come to the Reds.
Like it or not, we are going to have to pay some market prices here and there, and they are not always going to be our first choices. I do think that this is somewhat virgin territory to see the Reds have to pay through the nose just to secure some average pitchers, but with the years of non-prductivity from the farm system, the mortgage came due.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
It is good to see the front office finally realize they are going to have to spend some money to put fannies in the seats (and thus make money).
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by Krusty
They go out and shore up the bullpen, acquire a good fielding third baseman that is a capable hitter in the seventh spot of the order.
Respectfully Krusty, that's just your opinion and others don't have to agree with it. That doesn't make them "negative", it just means they've analyzed the situation and come to a different conclusion than you have. That is allowed isn't it.
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They don't spend money they get criticized. They spend money and people complained that they overpaid.
Not the same people, Krusty. There are a lot of people on this board with amny opinons. I have never been one to toot the horn of just spend money. I know lots of people who feel the same way I do. Those people who simply wanted the Reds to spend money have been very happy this offseason. Seeriously Krusty, have you looked atthe Milton thread and the poll thread? There's an overwhelming majority of people who actually DO like the Milton signing and the moves the FO has made. So what's the poblem. Does EVERYONE have to agree. No, there's always going to be people who disagree with the majority and they shouldn't be marginalized because of it.
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I have to say if you can't get excited about the moves the Reds have made without trading anyone with the exception of Moseley, then nothing will.
Come on Krusty, don't you think that's a little of an exaggeration? There's plenty of things the Reds could do that would make me and plenty of the naysayers happy. Do you think the Reds have a chance to conend for the playoffs this year?
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I can hear it now if the Reds are winning next year with fans saying another collapse is just around the corner.
Now this is a comment I don't get. Have you watched the last three years? If they come out of the gate winning, there's a good chance another collapse WILL be around the corner. People have predicted it in each of the last two years and been utterly lambasted for it. But were they right or wrong? And trust me, there's no joy in being right about it. I would have LOVED nothing more than to be completely and utterly wrong about the collapse. But when you look at all the factors and objectively analyze the situation, it was clear that the Reds early season success wasn't sustainable. Some of us just spoke up and voiced our opinion.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
I think all the moves made aregood solid moves. I worry a bit about the relatively high risk of the pitchers, but thats why we could afford them. The bullpen moves were shocking to me, but welcomed by someone who is used to Gulley trying to re-vamp complete washouts. This time around he has a couple arms with some past success to build on. I still feel a trade coming from the OF, and the only one that makes sense is WMP.
This ones for you Krusty:
WMP, Randa and Graves to the Cubbies for Aramis Ramirez.
Cuts salary, fills one hole while eliminating a surplus and a bad contract......
Cubs get the OF to replace Sammy, a setup man and a replacement for Ramirez.
Maybe?
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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but with the years of non-prductivity from the farm system, the mortgage came due.
Yep, currently the Reds are unemployed and are using their high interest credit cards to buy stuff for the house. Stuff they need, but will have to pay a little more for over time.
Sure they wanted that Krupps coffee maker and the wide screen TV, but the Mr Coffee and the 36 inch TV will have to do.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by MWM
There's plenty of things the Reds could do that would make me and plenty of the naysayers happy.
MWM, I'm curious, what are some of these things?
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by Krusty
Have to ask why all the negativity towards the Reds moves this offseason? They go out and shore up the bullpen, acquire a good fielding third baseman that is a capable hitter in the seventh spot of the order. They acquire a lefty pitcher capable of winning 15 games.
But judging by reactions on this board, you would think the Reds don't have a clue to what they are doing. They don't spend money they get criticized. They spend money and people complained that they overpaid.
Seems to me no matter what they do it won't be to the fans satisfaction. Even if they acquired Randy Johnson you would have people complaining the talent the Reds gave up and assuming Johnson's contract.
The Reds have money. They just don't tell the world they do. It helps them in their negotiations with the agents.
I have to say if you can't get excited about the moves the Reds have made without trading anyone with the exception of Moseley, then nothing will. I can hear it now if the Reds are winning next year with fans saying another collapse is just around the corner.
Like I said the doom and gloom on this board by some people is amazing considering the Reds haven't even played a game yet for the 2005 season.
:clap:
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
I think from a Red's point of view, they are trying to improve....but from a general baseball perspective they are not a championship team. It stil comes down to certain teams that spend more money, have a better farm system, etc...
Lets look at the Red's starting pitchers they signed. All of them have 4 plus ERA's and average stats. Yes, once again from the Red's perspective, the team has improved but only to a certain degree.
And didn't I once hear the Red's were rebuilding? Hmmm, so let's see. They trade their young pitching prospect(Mosely) for Ortiz. That's not staying young. Even though I think these are good additions to the team, Randa, Weber, Weathers, and Mercker are 35 and over. I'm looking forward to Encarncion in the minors to play third in a year or so.
The Reds should be a 500 club next year, probably barely. It still comes down to other teams in this division that will dominate over the Reds.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by MWM
Do you think the Reds have a chance to conend for the playoffs this year?
Yes.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
MWM, I'm curious, what are some of these things?
Acquire a single player who was worth significantly more Runs than average in 2003 versus their positional peer group.
For starters.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
I dig what the Reds have been doing this offseason...I am amazed we only traded away Mosley in the process and kept our projected payroll under $70mil and then we signed a very proudctive bat to a minor league contract in Cruz...DanO...well, I think he rawks!
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by MartyFan
I dig what the Reds have been doing this offseason...I am amazed we only traded away Mosley in the process and kept our projected payroll under $70mil and then we signed a very proudctive bat to a minor league contract in Cruz...DanO...well, I think he rawks!
Yes, I like the moves too, they were "good". BUT the Reds still do not have an ace starting pitcher!
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
Although directed at Krusty, can I interject?
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Originally Posted by MWM
Respectfully Krusty, that's just your opinion and others don't have to agree with it. That doesn't make them "negative", it just means they've analyzed the situation and come to a different conclusion than you have. That is allowed isn't it.
I define negative as the people on either side who tell posters they disagree with that they are stupid, or "haven't learned a thing about baseball after all these years" because their opinion is different. That's negative. The opinions themselves are just that - opinions. Even with Dunn, who I just think its so apparent what a tremendous player he is - there are opinions on both sides. When I stop and set aside my bias toward Dunn I can usually see some element of truth in the other argument. Same with the debate on these moves.
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Originally Posted by MWM
No, there's always going to be people who disagree with the majority and they shouldn't be marginalized because of it.
Agreed.
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Originally Posted by MWM
Do you think the Reds have a chance to conend for the playoffs this year?
Actually - yes, I do.
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Originally Posted by MWM
Now this is a comment I don't get. Have you watched the last three years? If they come out of the gate winning, there's a good chance another collapse WILL be around the corner. People have predicted it in each of the last two years and been utterly lambasted for it. But were they right or wrong? And trust me, there's no joy in being right about it. I would have LOVED nothing more than to be completely and utterly wrong about the collapse. But when you look at all the factors and objectively analyze the situation, it was clear that the Reds early season success wasn't sustainable. Some of us just spoke up and voiced our opinion.
And if the Reds break out with a great record but the numbers are similar (minus runs scored-allowed , tons of relief innings early in games that will burn out the pen later on, lower than average OBP, etc) then I'll be predicting the same collapse. It's my opinion the moves made will address some of that.
I agree with the thrust of what Krusty says. Milton is not Perez or Clement, but maybe we couldn't get them foir any price. Maybe they just weren't seriously interested or wanted even more than market to come here - and the market is ridiculous for pitching. It seems some posters think that you want a guy you just go out and sign him or trade for him. Like there are no other factors that go into it. I would have loved Perez and Clement fronting the rotation but Milton - Ortiz beats the heck out of Hancock-Harang. And we still have the H boys for some depth, too.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by RedlegJake
Although directed at Krusty, can I interject?
I define negative as the people on either side who tell posters they disagree with that they are stupid, or "haven't learned a thing about baseball after all these years" because their opinion is different. That's negative. The opinions themselves are just that - opinions. Even with Dunn, who I just think its so apparent what a tremendous player he is - there are opinions on both sides. When I stop and set aside my bias toward Dunn I can usually see some element of truth in the other argument. Same with the debate on these moves.
Agreed.
Actually - yes, I do.
And if the Reds break out with a great record but the numbers are similar (minus runs scored-allowed , tons of relief innings early in games that will burn out the pen later on, lower than average OBP, etc) then I'll be predicting the same collapse. It's my opinion the moves made will address some of that.
I agree with the thrust of what Krusty says. Milton is not Perez or Clement, but maybe we couldn't get them foir any price. Maybe they just weren't seriously interested or wanted even more than market to come here - and the market is ridiculous for pitching. It seems some posters think that you want a guy you just go out and sign him or trade for him. Like there are no other factors that go into it. I would have loved Perez and Clement fronting the rotation but Milton - Ortiz beats the heck out of Hancock-Harang. And we still have the H boys for some depth, too.
But think about this, do you honestly(not because you want them to because you like them) think the Reds can dominate over the other top 3 teams in this division?
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by SteelSD
Acquire a single player who was worth significantly more Runs than average in 2003 versus their positional peer group.
For starters.
:clap:
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
I thought alot about this last night. I was not impressed with the Milton signing yesterday, but am impressed that the FO and ownership are out there fighting to be a winner. I like all of the bullpen moves (i think Weber is going tobe a steal), Ortiz is someone I have liked and have come around on that deal.
On Milton, I think the Reds overpaid. Then it occours to me, the Reds most likely would hav eto overpay for anyone (decent) to play in Cincinnati right now. Ala the Bengals of recent years. They were in on Clement, and who i sto say they were not in on Perez or Millwood as well? Milton is one they could "sell" and did it.
Its kinda like having a bad credit rating. You can probably still buy a car, but your going to pay more for it and probably wont get your first choice when the time comes. In time, as you do thing s right, pay your bills and all, you will pay market prices and have more choice.
The same can happen for the Reds if they play things right the next couple years - show a committment to winning and continue to build the orgainization.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
Having seen this organization over since Lindner bought the team I am skeptical.
What if Milton pitches poorly and the Reds flop early. We will see another purge? Will Dunn and Kearns be traded because Jr and Milton are overpaid and the Reds "can't afford them"?
Spending a little money this offseason is a start but will this FO see it through if the teams starts losing and the fans don't show up? I have little faith that they will and the cycle begins all over again.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by deltachi8
I thought alot about this last night. I was not impressed with the Milton signing yesterday, but am impressed that the FO and ownership are out there fighting to be a winner.
Will they see it through if the times get tough or will they punt?
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by archiebunker
But think about this, do you honestly(not because you want them to because you like them) think the Reds can dominate over the other top 3 teams in this division?
I didn't say dominate - I said contend for a playoff spot. I think they will.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by flyer85
Having seen this organization over since Lindner bought the team I am skeptical.
What if Milton pitches poorly and the Reds flop early. We will see another purge? Will Dunn and Kearns be traded because Jr and Milton are overpaid and the Reds "can't afford them"?
Spending a little money this offseason is a start but will this FO see it through if the teams starts losing and the fans don't show up? I have little faith that they will and the cycle begins all over again.
If the Reds do poorly next year, expect to see a fire sale.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by flyer85
Will they see it through if the times get tough or will they punt?
thats the question, flyer. I think it all depends on how deep the commitment goes. I also want to see if they (the Reds) plan on a committment long term to Dunn, that would go futher than Eric Milton in showing a commitment.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by archiebunker
If the Reds do poorly next year, expect to see a fire sale.
Agreed. Since all these moves are short term anyway, I'd expect just that. I'd agree with it too. To me that means moving out all the veterans you can, adding prospects and retaining the younger players. If this bunch collapses, why not? OB's moves have been predicated on being competitive this year without hurting the future. Hudson, Claussen, Wagner, Valentine, Pauly, Gardner, Bailey, Votto et al. I'm talking 2007-2008. I still think that's the real timetable the FO is looking at. Everything til then is just trying to keep fannies in the seat with a somewhat competitive team.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by RedlegJake
I didn't say dominate - I said contend for a playoff spot. I think they will.
The point is, if they can't beat these teams they don't stand a chance. I think wild card spot is there only chance but that is a long shot. But I really think they could be a 500 team next year.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by deltachi8
also want to see if they (the Reds) plan on a committment long term to Dunn, that would go futher than Eric Milton in showing a commitment.
Amen.
Or at least a couple of the young OFs.
I have never seen any statements from the Reds about trying to sign Dunn to a LT deal or any statements from Dunn about be interested in a LT deal with the Reds. It is a big unknown at this point.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by SteelSD
Acquire a single player who was worth significantly more Runs than average in 2003 versus their positional peer group.
For starters.
Such as? I'm just curious, trying to understand your perspective.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
They should have already signed Dunn to a long term deal! It is very unusual
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by flyer85
Having seen this organization over since Lindner bought the team I am skeptical.
What if Milton pitches poorly and the Reds flop early. We will see another purge? Will Dunn and Kearns be traded because Jr and Milton are overpaid and the Reds "can't afford them"?
Spending a little money this offseason is a start but will this FO see it through if the teams starts losing and the fans don't show up? I have little faith that they will and the cycle begins all over again.
The flip side would be that each time they get a little deeper into the water, they realize that they didn't drown and try to go into even deeper water. Sometimes cycles get broken from learning and humbly admitting past failures. Now, I'm only saying that's possible, once again giving folks the benefit of the doubt rather than always assuming that, given a course of actions, that the worst alternative will always be chosen.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
Such as? I'm just curious, trying to understand your perspective.
Why sign Randa when you have Freel?
Why offer 25.5 mil to Milton if O. Perez is still on the market?
Why trade a Mosely for an Ortiz? Especially if from all reports it is likely the reds could have gotten him for much less?
Why not sign or at least go after Wade Miller? for 1.5 mil, he might be the steal of the off season.
it's mistake after mistake after mistake going all the way back to drafting homer bailey over chris nelson.
that's the reason for negativity.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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If the Reds do poorly next year, expect to see a fire sale.
You are absolutely right. I believe that Milton's contract was backloaded for that reason, 4.5 mil for 2005. If the Reds really tank the first half of the 2005 season, i'd expect Milton to be gone at the deadline.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
At some point you have to build around something. The only player the Reds had signed LT(past 2006) before yesterday was Jr and he is not something to build around. He contract is just living with a past mistake.
The Reds have 3 players to build around for the next 4 to 5 years. We have seen or heard of no effort to sign these players. Instead we have seen the Reds throw money at complementary players(Larue, Randa, Ortiz, Milton, Jimenez, etc). Nothing wrong with that if they are used to build around a nucleus for the LT.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
I Like This Team As Is. Look At All Of The Depth - There's Someone To Step Up At Every Position.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by TRF
Why sign Randa when you have Freel?
Why offer 25.5 mil to Milton if O. Perez is still on the market?
Why trade a Mosely for an Ortiz? Especially if from all reports it is likely the reds could have gotten him for much less?
Why not sign or at least go after Wade Miller? for 1.5 mil, he might be the steal of the off season.
it's mistake after mistake after mistake going all the way back to drafting homer bailey over chris nelson.
that's the reason for negativity.
I agree.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by maniem
You are absolutely right. I believe that Milton's contract was backloaded for that reason, 4.5 mil for 2005. If the Reds really tank the first half of the 2005 season, i'd expect Milton to be gone at the deadline.
He may be untradeable like Jr and Graves have been. Meaning they will be stuck with him unless they want to include a decent sized amount of cash.
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by archiebunker
They should have already signed Dunn to a long term deal! It is very unusual
Why? He strikes out too much and doesn't hit sacrifice flies. Not to mention he never bunts. :mhcky21:
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Re: Why All The Negativity?
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Originally Posted by TRF
Why sign Randa when you have Freel?
Why offer 25.5 mil to Milton if O. Perez is still on the market?
Why trade a Mosely for an Ortiz? Especially if from all reports it is likely the reds could have gotten him for much less?
Why not sign or at least go after Wade Miller? for 1.5 mil, he might be the steal of the off season.
it's mistake after mistake after mistake going all the way back to drafting homer bailey over chris nelson.
that's the reason for negativity.
Wow - great post TRF. Kinda sums up all of most people's problems with the signings in half the words - good job. I especially agree with the Miller and Randa sentiments. :thumbup: