Who are the top pitching prospects in the Reds minor leagues?

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Originally Posted by redsof72

Stephenson has the most potential of any Reds arm in the last 35 years.

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Of course, I am talking about guys who came up through the system, not guys, who, say, defected from Cuba and started in Triple-A.

I guess I'd see it this way (starting pitchers only) . . .

Top level (guys who clearly rank as major prospects, no particular order):

Corcino
Cingrani
Stephenson

Level two (guys who are pushing toward or have an evident chance to attain the top level, no particular order):

Guillon
Rogers
Travieso
Cisco
Lotzkar

Level three (guys who are looking pretty good, and who knows?, no particular order)

Obispo
Allen
Langfield
Garrett
Romano

Level four (guys who are still in the picture to varying degrees, no particular order)

Villarreal
Redmond
Smith
Gerson
Quezada
Mugarian
Adames
Diaz
Johnson
Crabbe
Moscot
French
Robles
Covington
Clarke

I like the way you broke that down Mace. I would probably bump Garrett up a level, but aside from that I don't know that I would change anything else.

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Originally Posted by dougdirt

I like the way you broke that down Mace. I would probably bump Garrett up a level, but aside from that I don't know that I would change anything else.

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My reservation on Garrett has nothing to do with his potential. (His two starts in Billings were head-turning.) It's just the myriad complications involved with him playing Big East basketball.

Langfield has put up some impressive stats. Under 5 in H/9 and over 13 in K/9. His BB rate is still a little high, slightly over 4 per 9. At draft time BA noted that he had 3 strikeout pitches, a FB that can touch 97, a hard slider, and a curve that breaks down with power. A third round pick coming off a college season in which he pitched at least 79 innings, it looks to me as if the Reds have elected to keep him at Billings to keep his innings down and perhaps work on minor adjustments to improve his command.

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Originally Posted by MikeS21

By the way, my attention was diverted during last night's game, but did I hear Welch and Grande talking about Pete Schoureck and that someone suggested a tweak to him that resulted in a jump in velocity from 88 to 95 mph? Did I hear that right?

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I didn't hear that on TV, but I remember hearing at the time that Gullett or someone else in the Reds org made a change to his delivery that transformed him into an ace pitcher (at least until health issues killed his career).

Schourek might be the best scrap heap/reclamation project of all time :)

Watching the Reds-Phils last night, one had to wonder whether the Reds would be more effective v. Phil with some good lefty starting pitching. Phillies' meat of the order is all left handed, Utley, Howard, even the tablesetters hit lefty (Rollins a switch hitter).

Cingrani's left handedness is potentially important. All other things being equal, it would be great to have him in the rotation as an effective lefty against teams like the Phils.

Just one more reason why it would be great if he worked out, and in the rotation.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

Watching the Reds-Phils last night, one had to wonder whether the Reds would be more effective v. Phil with some good lefty starting pitching. Phillies' meat of the order is all left handed, Utley, Howard, even the tablesetters hit lefty (Rollins a switch hitter).

Cingrani's left handedness is potentially important. All other things being equal, it would be great to have him in the rotation as an effective lefty against teams like the Phils.

Just one more reason why it would be great if he worked out, and in the rotation.

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And one more reason why some of us were unhappy that a certain Cuban defector was not given every chance to start.

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Originally Posted by puca

And one more reason why some of us were unhappy that a certain Cuban defector was not given every chance to start.

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Not like it meant anything this year.........

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Originally Posted by puca

And one more reason why some of us were unhappy that a certain Cuban defector was not given every chance to start.

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I used to want Chapman to start.

I've come around to having a guy who effectively limits the other team to only 8 innings to score. They pretty much don't stand a chance in the 9th inning if the Reds have the lead.

Watching him blow away Utley, who has been a pain in the Reds rear the last 2 nights, with a 102 mph fastball was a thing of beauty.

And when people talk about the money.......plenty of other teams are paying their closers $6M to $10M or $12M. Chapman is a bargain right now as a closer. And he's one of the best.

Since arriving in Pensacola, Chad Rogers has started 4 games, given up 4 ER, and sports an e.r.a. of 1.71 in 21 IP.

John Manuel from BA provides his take:

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Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Which Reds top arm (Stephenson, Corcino, Cingrani, Traviesio) has the highest upside?

John Manuel: I'm partial to Travieso but haven't heard anything not to like about Robert Stephenson, he's got to top that list. Corcino gets props for being closest to the majors, and his ceiling is more in the 3/4 range for me. There's not a 7 on the scouting report and for some scouts it's all 50s. I would still take him over Cingrani, though I greatly respect what Tony has done this year and since he got into pro ball. He's a power LHP, those are hard to fine. I'd go Stephenson, Travieso, Corcino then Cingrani, but I could see you shuffling the last 3 in any order and defending it.

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Interesting that he likes Travieso more than Corcino or Cingrani, although BA is known to really value draft pedigree/recent draftees.

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Originally Posted by Benihana

John Manuel from BA provides his take:



Interesting that he likes Travieso more than Corcino or Cingrani, although BA is known to really value draft pedigree/recent draftees.

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Good stuff.

I'm a results guy. Following Cueto and Bailey through the minors, all you'd hear is how Bailey was da man, had the better stuff and higher ceiling. In the end, Cueto made it to the majors quicker and is in the running for a Cy Young, while we still debate whether or not Bailey is a #4 or #5 starter.

I've seen way too many guys that have all the pitches, power, right stuff, struggle to put it together, and way too many pitchers that were written off surprise people.

No one has conclusively passed Cingrani, for me.

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Originally Posted by Benihana

John Manuel from BA provides his take:



Interesting that he likes Travieso more than Corcino or Cingrani, although BA is known to really value draft pedigree/recent draftees.

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I enjoy reading BA, but they have absolutely no grasp of probability. Their prospect lists are always loaded with 'high ceiling' guys in the low minors (or who haven't even played in the pros yet). Those guys have 'high ceilings' because they haven't had the warts in their game exposed yet. Most of them will never even make it to the majors. BA consistently undervalues guys who have established 'high floors' but have warts that will probably prevent them from being stars.

Todd Frazier is a good example of this. They had him ranked behind Yorman Rodriguez in their preseason rankings. Why? Because Yorman has 'unlimited upside' while Todd was pigeonholed as a utility player. The reality is, Yorman is a physically gifted athlete who is more likely to never make the major leagues than he is to become an impact player. Yet he ranks above Frazier, who pretty clearly had a major league future as a utility man and still had a chance to pan out to be even more. It drives me batty every year seeing half (or more) of those top 10 lists filled with guys who will never make the majors, while guys like Frazier get ignored.

Now, back to the pitchers, I think BA over-rates Travieso & Stephenson because they don't know their weaknesses yet, and they interpret that as him not having any weaknesses rather than a lack of information. On the flip side, they know Corcino and Cingrani's supposed weaknesses, so that makes them lesser prospects than the two recent draftees with unknown weaknesses. They also ignore the biggest weakness of all young pitchers .... staying healthy. Corcino and Cingrani being a couple of years ahead of the kids has value in and of itself, as it reduces the likelihood of them having a career-altering injury before making it to the majors.