Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Not defending Ondrusek, who I thought was disappointing last year, mostly late in the season.
But overall in three MLB seasons he has allowed 155 hits in 174.2 innings and has a 1.34 WHIP overall. (I like to see a reliever at around 1.3 WHIP or better.) He has a 15-7 W-L record and a 3.45 ERA. And, based on Shelton's article, last season he did well with inherited baserunners. Ondrusek allowed 1.1 homers per nine inning lifetime, which is not bad for a GABP pitcher.
His big issue, seems to me, is walks. His lifetime K rate is 6.1 per nine, his walk rate is 4.1, and the walk rate has gone in the wrong direction over time. His K rate isn't great, but not terrible either.
My point is that despite complaints about his stuff, and despite some unhappy peripherals, Ondrusek has a reasonable set of performance stats. Last season, one could argue that Logan was ok for most of the season and just had a terrible August-September.
I tend to agree that the Reds will have a hard time finding room for him on the roster and that two years for Logan is a surprise. But his performance measures have been pretty reasonable for a middle reliever and I don't think it's a ridiculous signing.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
_Sir_Charles_
That's not going to break the bank, but I still feel it is money misallocated.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
_Sir_Charles_
1.8 Million and 1 year too much IMO. The Reds have 10 guys for 7 spots in the pen and he's my 10th choice of that group personally. As for keeping him around for minor league depth, there are a lot of guys looking to hook on somewhere who could serve that same purpose.
IMO, this signing means that JJ Hoover starts the season in AAA unless some one comes up lame.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
The ages are on April 1st. Does this mean Sam LeCure is the 13th pitcher with Hoover being the 14th? That's some pretty good depth before you get into guys like Todd Redmond, Tony Cingrani, Pedro Villarreal, Dan Corcino, et al.
Code:
SALARY AGE SRVTIME NAME
7.400 27.12 5.000 Johnny Cueto
6.500 36.10 10.150 Bronson Arroyo
5.100* 26.91 4.017 Homer Bailey
4.600* 25.31 3.079 Mat Latos
4.500 30.59 6.088 Sean Marshall
4.000 28.79 7.020 Jonathan Broxton
3.100 30.88 5.146 Nick Masset
2.900* 25.39 3.000 Mike Leake
2.000 25.09 2.034 Aroldis Chapman
1.200 29.01 3.168 Jose Arredondo
0.950 28.13 2.144 Logan Ondrusek
0.800* 31.90 3.146 Alfredo Simon
0.500 28.91 2.072 Sam LeCure
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mth123
1.8 Million and 1 year too much IMO. The Reds have 10 guys for 7 spots in the pen and he's my 10th choice of that group personally. As for keeping him around for minor league depth, there are a lot of guys looking to hook on somewhere who could serve that same purpose.
IMO, this signing means that JJ Hoover starts the season in AAA unless some one comes up lame.
Completely agree. No way Ondrusek deserves a BP spot over Hoover.
Again, we are talking about a middle reliever, so this move will not sink our season, but it was still a poor move by Walt.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Edd Roush
Completely agree. No way Ondrusek deserves a BP spot over Hoover.
Again, we are talking about a middle reliever, so this move will not sink our season, but it was still a poor move by Walt.
Wait a minute. A "poor" move? Let's not write Walt off so easily. He's not prone to "poor" moves. Surprising, maybe, but I think "poor" sells Walt short.
In fact, from a financial point of view, the move makes sense. Ondrusek may come up short in the beloved peripherals, but he has pitched pretty successfully most of the time. A two-year deal for just over two million is cheap by today's standards.
So Walt has locked in a veteran reliever, who he knows and trusts, and who has pitched ok most of the time, on a pretty low cost deal.
Walt obviously prefers this to the waiver wire or promoting relievers who aren't good or aren't ready.
Now - if the Reds misuse Logan, that's another story. If the Reds send down Hoover to keep Logan, that would be controversial. If he made Logan a late inning guy, that would be controversial.
But last year, Logan spent time at AAA and didn't make the playoff roster. The Reds haven't shown that they are in love with this pitcher, they obviously know his limitations.
So, to me, it's a surprising move but it provides valuable depth. Financially, it's a low cost contract. Baseball wise, well, it's hard to see how all these guys can make the roster, but let's see how things shake out.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mth123
IMO, this signing means that JJ Hoover starts the season in AAA unless some one comes up lame.
Not a chance.
Edit: I unfortunately retract this statement. There's probably a distinct chance. It would be an idiotic move, but it looks possible.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Not a fan of this signing, especially if it means Hoover begins the season in Louisville, when he is a much better pitcher than Ondrusek.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake to start the season
Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Masset, Ondrusek, Hoover and one of Simon/Arredondo/etc. (I let ST sort out the back of the pen)
Chapman starts the season in AAA starting. Once ready, he comes up and Leake goes down. Once Chapman nears his innings limit (or just to limit his innings), bring up Leake as needed...rinse and repeat.
If Masset isn't ready, he goes to the DL and one of the other RP options comes up.
I really don't see why this is so complicated.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Edd Roush
That's not going to break the bank, but I still feel it is money misallocated.
I agree. Logan is replaceable, and that money would be better served elsewhere.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
Wait a minute. A "poor" move? Let's not write Walt off so easily. He's not prone to "poor" moves. Surprising, maybe, but I think "poor" sells Walt short.
Even the best managers/ decision makers make poor moves. Saying that Walt made a poor move does not mean that he is a poor GM. Far from it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
In fact, from a financial point of view, the move makes sense. Ondrusek may come up short in the beloved peripherals, but he has pitched pretty successfully most of the time. A two-year deal for just over two million is cheap by today's standards.
It makes no financial sense to sign bad players at all, let alone to multi-year deals. Logan Ondrusek has been worse than a replacement player for the last two years and he was barely better than replacement level in 2010. Signing bad players to contracts is bad business by any era's standards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
So Walt has locked in a veteran reliever, who he knows and trusts, and who has pitched ok most of the time, on a pretty low cost deal.
Walt most certainly knows Logan Ondrusek, but he surely should not trust him to get guys out. There are three things that a pitcher should try to do, strike out as many guys as possible, walk as few guys as possible and give up as few home runs as possible. Logan is average to below average at striking guys out, his walk rate is terrible and his home run rate was bad last year. Calling him okay is calling 2012 Miguel Cairo OK.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
Walt obviously prefers this to the waiver wire or promoting relievers who aren't good or aren't ready.
Just because Walt does something or prefers something, does not always make it the correct move. The waiver wire was very good to Walt last year where he grabbed Alfredo Simon, who is certainly better than Logan. Furthermore, for a list of readily available relievers who are better than Logan please refer to post #27 made by mth123.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
Now - if the Reds misuse Logan, that's another story. If the Reds send down Hoover to keep Logan, that would be controversial. If he made Logan a late inning guy, that would be controversial.
Every use of a less than replacement level pitcher is a misuse. There are many available pitchers who are better than him. He doesn't do anything that a pitcher can control well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
But last year, Logan spent time at AAA and didn't make the playoff roster. The Reds haven't shown that they are in love with this pitcher, they obviously know his limitations.
If Walt is properly assessing Logan's limitations, then why are they signing him to a multi-year deal? Again, I am not saying that this move has sunk the Reds, just that this move, in isolation, is poor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
So, to me, it's a surprising move but it provides valuable depth. Financially, it's a low cost contract. Baseball wise, well, it's hard to see how all these guys can make the roster, but let's see how things shake out.
Sure, this move adds depth, but so does signing a better pitcher, who is a free agent, to the same contract. Signing the better pitcher also improves the Reds as a ballclub. Look at camisadelgolf's post of all of the pitchers the Reds already have under contract, did the Reds need to sign Logan for depth? Is he an improvement at all? I think not.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
_Sir_Charles_
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake to start the season
Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Masset, Ondrusek, Hoover and one of Simon/Arredondo/etc. (I let ST sort out the back of the pen)
Chapman starts the season in AAA starting. Once ready, he comes up and Leake goes down. Once Chapman nears his innings limit (or just to limit his innings), bring up Leake as needed...rinse and repeat.
If Masset isn't ready, he goes to the DL and one of the other RP options comes up.
I really don't see why this is so complicated.
Because it will be Broxton, Marshall, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Masset, Lecure and Leake in the pen unless some one is hurt. They may send Leake down to start (with a $3 Million salary) and keep Simon. Hard to see Hoover or Cingrani, who IMO are two of the top seven arms, making the opening day roster. The lack of a second lefty makes Arredondo a lock IMO. Masset is making $3.1 Million. Leake will be making around $3 Million. Simon and Ondrusek will be making around $900K each.
Leake won't be able to be sent down without clearing waivers after his option clock expires in Mid-April or so. Pretty sure Arredondo ($1.2 million guarantee) can't be sent down without waivers either. Not sure on Ondrusek's status. Simon is out of options. The Reds should have cut Ondrusek loose and signed another 11th or 12th man type to a minor league deal. A lefty would have been a better fit, but there are a lot of righties out there who are better too.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
_Sir_Charles_
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake to start the season
Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Masset, Ondrusek, Hoover and one of Simon/Arredondo/etc. (I let ST sort out the back of the pen)
Chapman starts the season in AAA starting. Once ready, he comes up and Leake goes down. Once Chapman nears his innings limit (or just to limit his innings), bring up Leake as needed...rinse and repeat.
If Masset isn't ready, he goes to the DL and one of the other RP options comes up.
I really don't see why this is so complicated.
There is no chance Chapman goes to AAA. None.
I would bet that Chapman starts in the bullpen and comes to the rotation some time in June.
Re: Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal
This signing might make him easier to deal.
Cost certainty is very valuable.
I might also make Arredondo, Simon, or (gulp) Hoover more available.