Shakeup needed?

Yes I know the reds are over .500, aren't that far put, and it's early. I can't help but get a 2011 vibe from this season. Where we all go oh it's early, this team has talent, and they will come around only to watch them gradually fade back and then out of contention.

I'm newer here so ill preface this by saying that I'm not a huge dusty hater, but I think it's time that his leash gota little shorter. In his tenure I have seen many things that leave me scratching my head: his player personnel decisions, his handling of up and coming players, the lineups he runs out sometimes leave me wondering is he trying to lose or not sport the best team possible that day, his decisions when it comes to leaving starting pitchers in, and issues with the handling of the bullpen.

I'm friends with fans of many other teams that have history's with dusty or are a rival: cubs giants cards. They all tell me the same thing. Dusty is holding this team back and with the talent we have we should be playing better even with the injuries. Furthermore, he is the manager that can get the reds to the playoff but not over the top. After taking some time to think about it, I think I agree. I think to win it all the reds would have to outplay dustys managing on the field. Ill never take away from his personality handling skills but you have to manage on the field too.

All this being said, lets try to not make this a rip dusty thread. I'm asking since its too early for a major trade, does anyone think, and with sound reason, that maybe it's time to shorten dustys leash or even perhaps let him go?

:p You write a full post bashing Dusty then say don't make this a Dusty bashing post....

I agree about poor lineup construction. I disagree he has problems with young up and comers. Too much evidence right on the Reds he will play youngsters if they are ready. Mes is a differeng case. Something not good is going on there and it isn't all Dusty. Going back to last year the pitchers seem to get annoyed at him too. Arroyo was noticeably irritated last start. Something went down at the end of last year and Mes hasn't gotten back in anyone's good graces yet it seems. There have been threads and allusions to this on ORG. So his light use of Mes may be as much an unspoken of clubhouse problem. All that said and the fact I believe managers have little to do with winning but can have definite detrimental effects and I don't see lineup construction mathematically to be a deal breaker (computer simulations of all possible lineups show most lineups of the same guys will produce very very close run totals...the highest always come from putting highest obp's at top but frpm best to worst it amounts to percentage points of a run). Dusty is frustrating and maddeningly old school but I believe his strengths handling players and instilling never say die are weighted in his favor overall.

A shakeup may be coming. It is May...nearly mid May and the scuffling offense continues. As long as the pitching keeps them close there is no need to panic. The Cards to date have an unsustainable RISP and a starting era the same. Just too low to be sustàinable long term. So there is no need to make a deal too quick before weighing options, looking at every potential match viz a viz other teams and cost/return. I trust Walt and it is too soon to rush to "save"the season. Firing Dusty mid season would also be a mistake. My bet is he stays and after its all done if they haven't at least come within a game of the Series then he'll be gone. As for the weak spots it is Frazier and left field. Todd because his pedigree says average hitter overall at best...lowish avg with decent slugging...and he is streaky and cold right now...and LF where a Paul/Robinson platoon doesn't equal much production.Heck I wish they would just plug in Lutz and let him play fulltime for a while. Let me add though that Frazier's defense has been rock solid so far. Knocking him on that basis doesn't work. And Hannahan would not add much defensive improvement and has never never been a good hitter. He is a sub plain and pure. Shaking things up by starting Jack would be a step backwards, imo.

double post...sorry

I like Dusty the person and clubhouse chemistry guy.

I don't like Dusty the strategical manager.

I think everyone, including me, needs to simply wait this out until the end of May or middle of June and then as we approach the midway point, start to get nervous if things aren't looking up.

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Originally Posted by RedlegJake

:p You write a full post bashing Dusty then say don't make this a Dusty bashing post....

I agree about poor lineup construction. I disagree he has problems with young up and comers. Too much evidence right on the Reds he will play youngsters if they are ready. Mes is a differeng case. Something not good is going on there and it isn't all Dusty. Going back to last year the pitchers seem to get annoyed at him too. Arroyo was noticeably irritated last start. Something went down at the end of last year and Mes hasn't gotten back in anyone's good graces yet it seems. There have been threads and allusions to this on ORG. So his light use of Mes may be as much an unspoken of clubhouse problem. All that said and the fact I believe managers have little to do with winning but can have definite detrimental effects and I don't see lineup construction mathematically to be a deal breaker (computer simulations of all possible lineups show most lineups of the same guys will produce very very close run totals...the highest always come from putting highest obp's at top but frpm best to worst it amounts to percentage points of a run). Dusty is frustrating and maddeningly old school but I believe his strengths handling players and instilling never say die are weighted in his favor overall.

A shakeup may be coming. It is May...nearly mid May and the scuffling offense continues. As long as the pitching keeps them close there is no need to panic. The Cards to date have an unsustainable RISP and a starting era the same. Just too low to be sustàinable long term. So there is no need to make a deal too quick before weighing options, looking at every potential match viz a viz other teams and cost/return. I trust Walt and it is too soon to rush to "save"the season. Firing Dusty mid season would also be a mistake. My bet is he stays and after its all done if they haven't at least come within a game of the Series then he'll be gone. As for the weak spots it is Frazier and left field. Todd because his pedigree says average hitter overall at best...lowish avg with decent slugging...and he is streaky and cold right now...and LF where a Paul/Robinson platoon doesn't equal much production.Heck I wish they would just plug in Lutz and let him play fulltime for a while. Let me add though that Frazier's defense has been rock solid so far. Knocking him on that basis doesn't work. And Hannahan would not add much defensive improvement and has never never been a good hitter. He is a sub plain and pure. Shaking things up by starting Jack would be a step backwards, imo.

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I meant by dusty ripping is calling him dumb and stupid and things of that nature with no real evidence to back that up. I've heard that far too often outside of this site. Maybe I should expect more here. As far as the prospect development goes I wasn't strictly referring to Mez. Corey Patterson got the nod over Bruce. Hatteberg over votto. Fred Lewis over Alonso, renteria over cozart willie harris over frazier, and hanigan over Mez. I do agree that there may be more to that though. The prospects he has played have been be a use he really has no other choice.

He does make very frustrating on field decisions. There is no doubt about that. I don't why corky is playing more than once week right now for example or why cozart continues to bat second. This year the injuries have paid a toll on this team so all in all I think that dusty maybe needs a shorter leash but not fired. If the underperforming continues after a deal is made or players one back, I think it may be time.

As far as Fraziers D....everyone I talk to off of this site, which includes some very knowledgeable baseball people agree with me on his D. So who knows. Ill see what I see and you guys can see what you see. It really won't matter either way if he keeps up his current level of offense anyway. And that's the issue. If he was hitting like last year then I'd not call for hannahan. I think some sort of three way platoon situation betwee Frazier lutz and hannahan would work. It's get Todd in and hopefully out of the funk, lutz a look and make todda much needed right handed be ch bat right now on the days he is out.

At this point it's not Dusty's fault Ludwick was a fool for sliding head first, or that Bruce can't hit or we have a number of injuries and such. Dusty isn't the one who made up the schedule that was very difficult. I am not a Dusty fan at all, but it's time to look at the players and our degree of difficulty and IR list as to why this team is where it is right now.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

I meant by dusty ripping is calling him dumb and stupid and things of that nature with no real evidence to back that up. I've heard that far too often outside of this site. Maybe I should expect more here. As far as the prospect development goes I wasn't strictly referring to Mez. Corey Patterson got the nod over Bruce. Hatteberg over votto. Fred Lewis over Alonso, renteria over cozart willie harris over frazier, and hanigan over Mez. I do agree that there may be more to that though. The prospects he has played have been be a use he really has no other choice.

He does make very frustrating on field decisions. There is no doubt about that. I don't why corky is playing more than once week right now for example or why cozart continues to bat second. This year the injuries have paid a toll on this team so all in all I think that dusty maybe needs a shorter leash but not fired. If the underperforming continues after a deal is made or players one back, I think it may be time.

As far as Fraziers D....everyone I talk to off of this site, which includes some very knowledgeable baseball people agree with me on his D. So who knows. Ill see what I see and you guys can see what you see. It really won't matter either way if he keeps up his current level of offense anyway. And that's the issue. If he was hitting like last year then I'd not call for hannahan. I think some sort of three way platoon situation betwee Frazier lutz and hannahan would work. It's get Todd in and hopefully out of the funk, lutz a look and make todda much needed right handed be ch bat right now on the days he is out.

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What in is his D bothers you? How many errors does he have, how does it compare to other players at this position? do you feel his range is poor or decision making? Exactly what bothers you with his D?

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Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I like Dusty the person and clubhouse chemistry guy.

I don't like Dusty the strategical manager.

I think everyone, including me, needs to simply wait this out until the end of May or middle of June and then as we approach the midway point, start to get nervous if things aren't looking up.

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I'm thinking I'm in the same boat as you.

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Originally Posted by Johnny Fan

What in is his D bothers you? How many errors does he have, how does it compare to other players at this position? do you feel his range is poor or decision making? Exactly what bothers you with his D?

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I think he looks insecure when the ball is hit to him. I think his range has more to be desired and his arm scares me in the fact I see him sail a lot of throws and bring votto back across the base to catch them.

I love his hard work and desire to become better. I don't think it's so much the errors, but I feel like if he was able to react faster he'd make more plays or get to other balls he's not. Maybe rolen spoiled me but I feel like Frazier doesn't get some balls he should, his confidence at third looks shakey and his arm is iffy in the fact he sails a lot of throws.

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Originally Posted by Johnny Fan

At this point it's not Dusty's fault Ludwick was a fool for sliding head first, or that Bruce can't hit or we have a number of injuries and such. Dusty isn't the one who made up the schedule that was very difficult. I am not a Dusty fan at all, but it's time to look at the players and our degree of difficulty and IR list as to why this team is where it is right now.

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That could be the ironic part about it. This year the things going on aren't his fault but I could see him getting on the hot seat because I feel like there is more pressure to make this year our year.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

That could be the ironic part about it. This year the things going on aren't his fault but I could see him getting on the hot seat because I feel like there is more pressure to make this year our year.

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Outside of the Reds finishing in last some 10-20 games under .500 there is zero chance Dusty gets removed. Bob C. loves Dusty and is going to stick with him unless there is a total colapse. Dusty is here until dusty is ready to retire.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

I wasn't strictly referring to Mez. Corey Patterson got the nod over Bruce. Hatteberg over votto. Fred Lewis over Alonso, renteria over cozart willie harris over frazier, and hanigan over Mez. I do agree that there may be more to that though. The prospects he has played have been be a use he really has no other choice.
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Maybe my memory is flawed, but I recall that Bruce did not make the club in the year that Corey Patterson was here. Wayne K sent him down to the minors. Once Bruce was up on the ML club, Bruce played just about every day. Patterson got an audition in the beginning of the season, then was benched. At the end of the season, due to injuries, Dusty was forced to start Patterson. Now maybe the arguement could be made that Dusty gave Patterson too long of a trial in the beginning of the season.. but his GM just gave this guy 3 million.. Patterson (or any other FA) is going to get plenty of chances by any manager in that situation. Dusty can't start Bruce when Bruce is in AAA

Fred Lewis over Alonso.. Alonso could not play LF.

Willie Harris over Fraiser? Harris only appeared in 25 games (most off the bench). Only had 44 ABs.

Renturia over Cozart: In 2011, Cozart was not called up until July 7. Shortly later, he had a pretty severe elbow injury. Again, Dusty can't start Cozart when he's spent so much time in AAA and the DL.

Hat over Votto? In 2008 (Votto's first full season), Hat only had 52 ABs.

Mez vs Hannigan.. I agree this is kind of mysterious, but part of the reason is that Hannigan did a great job last yar.

I don't mean to get in your face about this, but Dusty gives young players plenty of chances. He does not play over the hill veterans over promising kids.
I will concede his handling of Mez is a bit odd though. But this seems to be the exception rather than the rule. I will also say this.. Maybe Mez just isn't as great as we hoped he'd be? I'm not giving up on him, but it's not as if Dusty has the next Gary Carter on the bench.

Dusty is a pretty good manager, probably one of the 5 best in the game. Managers get too much credit when they win and too much blame when they lose. Dusty has dealt with some injuries to some key players the last couple of years (Votto, Ludwig) and has handled the situations well.