Juan Francisco or Todd Frazier?
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Juan Francisco or Todd Frazier?
I have a few guys still on the list ahead of both of these guys. Since I think they both will struggle to hold down a spot as a regular, I'll go with Frazier's versatility over Francisco's power. I'd love to see Francisco do what he's doing and I agree that he's defied the odds with each move up the ladder, but he's just a guy I won't believe will succeed until I see it happen.
The fact that the Reds were unwilling to give Francisco a look in the OF when the team was down to 2 healthy OF really dropped him (and Alonso) in my rankings. There seems to be a lot of skepticism about him and 3B and the team was unwilling to use him in LF. That just leaves 1B and the bar is so high there, he'd have to not only make the jump, but be a fairly significant hitter to be more than an interchangeable part. His power is awesome so he has a chance to do that, but he just seems like a guy major league pitchers will be able to exploit.
Juan Francisco may be the better minor leaguer, but I'd bet all my assets that Frazier will have the better career in MLB.
Frazier OPS
2007 - .943
2008 - .853
2009 - .832
2010 - .781
Francisco OPS
2006 - .718
2007 - .763
2008 - .799
2009 - .847
2010 - .890
Francisco has hit .316 against major league pitching
I'll take the younger, steadily improving, more productive player, Juan Francisco.
I'll go with the guy who plays defense well, knows the concept of patience at the plate, has only one year with a sub-.800 OPS under his belt, and is only one year older.
+1Quote:
Originally Posted by camisadelgolf
Francisco's minor league career K/BB rate would be the absolute worst of any Major League regular if those numbers were left intact. If MLE translated, they'd be to the point where he would not be in the league very long.
People can show his minor league OPS until they're blue in the face. But if he doesn't improve his K/BB rate (and thereby OBP), it's an indication Major League pitching will have an absolute field day on him.
AAAA anyone?
Frazier is 'safer' because he can play defense at multiple positions well enough to at least be a super sub. It isn't like he doesn't have a starters ceiling either.
Francisco has a much better ceiling because he has legit 40 HR power. At the same time, his defense at third sucks right now and even if he corrects some issues he is likely to be quite limited range wise because of his size. As for the plate discipline issues, I will say this as someone who has been very hard on Francisco in terms of his plate discipline in the past.... he has better plate discipline than his walk rate would suggest. He used to swing at anything within a foot of the plate. He doesn't anymore. He actually worked the count pretty well in AAA this year. His issue is that, at least in my opinion, he doesn't want to walk. When he got to a 3 ball count, he would fight and fight to try and get a hit. While I still think he has some work to do, and a lower floor because of it, I truly believe he could 'get it' very soon too.
I'll take poor man's Kung Fu Panda.