Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
This is the kind of financing that's good for baseball. Rather than concentrating wads of cash into the hands of a select few free agents, you give a kid who's performed well the chance to do what he loves and make enough money to live well for the rest of his life. If he outplays the contract, you won't find him griping about still just making ends meet; if he flames out, you won't find the club filing for bankruptcy. All this, and it helps level the playing field across the board so that teams like the Rays can compete.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
Baseball Ref and Cots both have his service time at 0.168 going into this year. That can't be right can it?
But anyway, he would have been arb-eligble in 2015 (Super 2).
So...trying to guess the savings (these are my guesses on what his salary would be if he is a solid 1B bat.)
2013 .5 MM
2014 .5 MM
2015 3 MM
2016 5 MM
2017 8 MM
2018 11 MM
2019 15 MM
Which totals 43 MM. So all in all, the extension really doesn't save that much...but it does give cost certainty. If I'm a Cubs fan, I like this deal. I like these type of deals for teams, so I'm biased, I will freely admit.
That doesn't change my above opinion a few posts back that you can easily find a plug in option for 1B cheaply on a consistent basis.
And if he does tank, this contract is just money lost in the couch cushions for the Cubs, which is important to note when evaluating this deal.
That's basically my point...the upside of the deal is relatively small, maybe you save a couple million. The downside is he could have a career ending injury tomorrow and you are out $41 million. This is bad risk benefit analysis IMO. I would never bet $41 million to make $2 million in the stock market that's just terrible investing....
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DocRed
That's basically my point...the upside of the deal is relatively small, maybe you save a couple million. The downside is he could have a career ending injury tomorrow and you are out $41 million. This is bad risk benefit analysis IMO. I would never bet $41 million to make $2 million in the stock market that's just terrible investing....
That's not the upside though. The upside is that he becomes a perennial Allstar and the Cubs save 10-15 million when the options are all said and done. And that is not considering salary inflation over 7 years.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
That's not the upside though. The upside is that he becomes a perennial Allstar and the Cubs save 10-15 million when the options are all said and done. And that is not considering salary inflation over 7 years.
OK let's take a closer look then...
Let's assume for a moment that Rizzo somehow rises to Joey Votto's level. (Votto BTW is a far better defender IMO for what it's worth. But in any case....)
During the same 7 year time period Votto made $47 million....so the MAX upside is 6 million if he becomes an MVP in 2 years. The MAX downside is $43 million. (Don't forget the $2 million dollar buyout the Cubs would have to exercise even if he gets injured tomorrow)
But wait...let's consider the option years!! Even if you consider the 2 option years at $14.5 million each and compare it to Votto's contract who makes $14 and $20 million its still only an additional savings of $5 million.
So...in the best case scenario option years included, if all the moons align and Rizzo becomes an MVP in 2 years and arises to Votto like status then the Cubs will have saved $11 million in the best possible scenario. In the worst possible scenario they would have lost $43 million.
Investing $43 million for a max return of $11 million is generally a bad investment IMO. Honestly though if you truly believe in the player it's really not THAT bad of an investment. However, the kicker is you could have easily waited 2-3 years and had a far better evaluation of the player and still likely payed the same price. THAT's why this is a bad move IMO. This has nothing to do with Rizzo's talent as a player, it's just simple math and economics and timing.
P.S.-I think people are forgetting how INSANELY uncompensated MLB players are for the first 5-6 years of their career under the current collective bargaining agreement no matter how good they perform. And it's an understandable shotgun reaction....but when you do the math it just doesn't add up.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
I think you're missing the part where he is never going to get the kind of contract Votto's playing under now or, to make a more realistic comparison, an Adrian Gonzalez or Teixeira deal because he won't reach free agency in his 20's now. This isn't about saving a few million bucks, it's about keeping control of most of his prime years while not giving up the flexibility to let him walk before his decline years.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
For starters Doc you are omitting the fact that Votto's salary drops in his 7th year due to the workings of the long term deal. Same with the option years you referenced. Votto is easily a 20 MM player post arbitration.
I'm hoping that was just an oversight on your end and you didn't try to sneak that in unnoticed.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
For starters Doc you are omitting the fact that Votto's salary drops in his 7th year due to the workings of the long term deal. Same with the option years you referenced. Votto is easily a 20 MM player post arbitration.
I'm hoping that was just an oversight on your end and you didn't try to sneak that in unnoticed.
The Doctor knows how to operate......
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PuffyPig
The Doctor knows how to operate......
I hate to accuse people of things, but my mother taught me to never trust someone who manages to bolden, italicize, capitalize, and exclamation point in a single response to you.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
For starters Doc you are omitting the fact that Votto's salary drops in his 7th year due to the workings of the long term deal. Same with the option years you referenced. Votto is easily a 20 MM player post arbitration.
I'm hoping that was just an oversight on your end and you didn't try to sneak that in unnoticed.
Oh I didn't miss that at all and even if you give the upside another 2,3 or $4million, the downside risk is still far larger. There is no perfectly comparable contract and that is why we have discussions here. However, the bigger point here is they could have made the same contract in 2-3 years from now, eliminated some downside risk and still had him for the same price and for the same amount of years.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-...y-rizzo-again/
Dave Cameron is more bullish on the deal than I am. He forsees a future where Rizzo is a 30 MM per year player after arbitration. Cameron even says over the final 3 years of the contract the Cubs could save 50 MM. (A bit more than Doc's best-case 11 MM.)
Dave is not God when it comes to this stuff, but he knows what he is talking about more often than not. Having said that, I just find it hard to justify saying this is a "bad" deal.
Aside - Wouldn't this deal be insured to some extent regarding injuries?
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-...y-rizzo-again/
Dave Cameron is more bullish on the deal than I am. He forsees a future where Rizzo is a 30 MM per year player after arbitration. Cameron even says over the final 3 years of the contract the Cubs could save 50 MM. (A bit more than Doc's
best-
case 11 MM.)
Dave is not God when it comes to this stuff, but he knows what he is talking about more often than not. Having said that, I just find it hard to justify saying this is a "bad" deal.
Aside - Wouldn't this deal be insured to some extent regarding injuries?
It all comes down to what you think of Rizzo. If you think he's special, and will be in the Fielder/Votto/Pujols category, it's a good deal for the Cubs. That's what the Cubs are betting on.
I just don't see it, and would put him more in the LaRoche/Overbay/Napoli category. If that ends up being the case, it's not such a great deal. If he gets hurt or doesn't produce, it's a bad deal.
But the Cubs are run by the guy who drafted him and another guy who traded for him twice, so it's clear they think he's special.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
If Rizzo turns out to be a Votto or Pujols, I would classify this deal as better than "good".
I'd personally place him in in a category lower than Votto but better than LaRoche and Napoli...if such a place exists. He's only 23 and I like what I've seen.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
757690
It all comes down to what you think of Rizzo. If you think he's special, and will be in the Fielder/Votto/Pujols category, it's a good deal for the Cubs. That's what the Cubs are betting on.
I just don't see it, and would put him more in the LaRoche/Overbay/Napoli category. If that ends up being the case, it's not such a great deal. If he gets hurt or doesn't produce, it's a bad deal.
But the Cubs are run by the guy who drafted him and another guy who traded for him twice, so it's clear they think he's special.
I didn't realize at first, but it's almost the same deal those same guys signed Dustin Pedroia to after his 2nd season, only with just one option year instead of the 2 on Rizzo's.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
Agreed. Too many people don't consider the actual downside here. Lets say he's a 3-4 WAR player every year, how much does he cost the Cubs? They have control for the next 5 years anyway.
I get the value and if I had to bet, I'd say the Cubs come out ahead, but I think people fail to set the appropriate baseline of he would have earned given the range of possible performance outcomes and account the guarantee aspect.
It's a good deal, but with less clearance than many are suggesting. Most of his relative cheapness over that timeframe was already a sure thing.
The guy kinda reminds me of Adam LaRoche. My eyes tell me he has a long swing which I do not like. I think there is a decent chance he becomes a better than average 1b but not a top tier 1b. I also think there is a chance he goes James Loney and is DFA'd before his contract is up.
Re: Anthony Rizzo Signs 7 Year, $41 Million Deal
Playing the Cubs tonight I noticed Rizzo's BA was down to .249 down from the high .280's just a couple weeks ago. After checking his stats he is 6 for 46 (.130) since signing the contract with 1 HR and 3 RBI's during that period (including 0 for his last 23). Small sample size yes but interesting nonetheless...
