Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Westbrook had a low ERA for most of the year, even though he walked more than he struck out.
Many of us said it (the ERA) couldn't continue.
It hasn't as his luck ran out.
Bailey has pitched as well or better as most pitchers in the league this year. His stats don't show it, but he's on the verge of being considered a dominate MLB pitcher.
He could conceivably be in the middle of a 18-6, 2.90 , 200 K season, if he had better luck. That Bailey for Profar trade would be realistic.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
swaisuc
A lot of this thread will depend on whether you believe stranding runners is a skill or if it's essentially random.
LOB% regresses back to roughly 73%. It's tough to argue its a repeatable skill.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
But take a step back....
The object of pitching is to hold the other team without many runs. Runs.
You can have the best strikeout rate, the best OPS against rate, the best WHIP, the best of all these.
But if you allow a bunch of runs, the impact on games is adverse.
Now, obviously, these other stats are very important. Including the fielding independent stats, and league/park adjusted stats. They are all important.
And sometimes, as Doug notes, ERA is impacted by BABIP which may make it unreliable.
But at the end of the day, if you give up too many earned runs, you and your team have a problem. So ERA needs to be considered IMO.
One can completely ignore ERA and really know all one needs to know about a pitcher. One can't understand ERA if they ignore his peripherals, luck metrics, indicators of the quality of the typical defense behind him and information about the environment he pitches in.....
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Bailey consistently has underpitched his peripherals. Seven years into his career I think we need to recognize that with Homer you're going to get slightly less than the sum of his parts. That's all right because he's still good, but it makes him more of a talented #3 pitcher.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
I like team ERA as an rough representation of how many runs the run prevention unit is likely to give up per game.
To me, there are other more useful individual pitching performance measures.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
nate
I like team ERA as an rough representation of how many runs the run prevention unit is likely to give up per game.
To me, there are other more useful individual pitching performance measures.
Not to belabor the discussion, but I don't see ERA as a team stat nor do I think it represents the "run prevention unit's" effectiveness.
Since it is limited to earned runs, the stat tells us nothing about a major aspect of team defense -- making errors, allowing unearned runs. These factors are completely absent. A team can lead the world in unearned runs allowed and it will have zero effect on ERA.
ERA is limited to earned runs purposely to focus in on pitching performance. Now, obviously team defense (e.g., range) factors into earned runs allowed. But I think ERA is a pitcher's stat, although certainly not a perfect reflection of performance.
The problem with ERA is the same problem that OPS, BA, and similar stats have. They are used as proxies for overall performance. But they are mere shortcuts and should be viewed as a starting point only. There are too many available stats that break things down more specifically.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PuffyPig
Bailey has pitched as well or better as most pitchers in the league this year. His stats don't show it, but he's on the verge of being considered a dominate MLB pitcher..
Bailey is very talented. I agree with you on that point.
That said, I think he has underperformed his perphirals every year (including this one).
On the other extreme, Bronson has consistently outperformed his peripherals.
I think if we looked through the league, we could find more examples.
I think this means that these peripheral measurements are useful tools, but aren't exactly the perfect measurement either. I know ERA isn't either.
Baseball is such a complex game to model. We all want to sum up a player in a few tidy numbers, but the assumptions that are made in compiling these numbers are pretty huge.
Think about it. We are comparing Latos to Homer early in the thread.
The guys have not even pitched against the exactly the same teams this year.
Different ballparks, different lineups (both sides), etc, etc.
I can't pinpoint why Homer's peripherals don't translate into a higher percentage of Quality Starts, but this seems to have been the pattern throughout his career thus far. I know some people hate QS as much as ERA too, but QS% is something Homer needs to improve to be an ace IMO.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
M2
Bailey consistently has underpitched his peripherals. Seven years into his career I think we need to recognize that with Homer you're going to get slightly less than the sum of his parts. That's all right because he's still good, but it makes him more of a talented #3 pitcher.
How many #1s and #2s do you believe are out there? It's relevant when you claim Bailey is a 3.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jojo
LOB% regresses back to roughly 73%. It's tough to argue its a repeatable skill.
Just throwing some things out there. Possible "skill" reasons your ERA could outperform your other pitching stats...
1. High K rate
2. Induce lots of ground balls
3. Induce lots of double plays
4. Ability to hold on runners or pick runners off
5. Lots of intentional walks
6. Pitch better out of the stretch
7. Great bullpen consistently strands runners you leave on
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
How many #1s and #2s do you believe are out there? It's relevant when you claim Bailey is a 3.
Bailey's lifetime record is 46-43 with a 4.33 ERA. His lifetime ERA+ is 95, league average is 100.
Over the last two seasons he has a 3.68 ERA, exactly the same in 2012 and so far in 2013. His W-L record for that period is 21-20. His ERA+ in 2012 was 114, well over league average, this year it's 108. Mat Latos in the last two years has an ERA+ of 120 last year, 136 this year.
I think number 3 starter is fair for a solid pitching team.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TRF
So, great game by Latos today so I took a casual look at the Reds starter's stats.
Bailey and Latos have had nearly identical years, with Bailey actually being better in regards to BB's and hits. They have just about the same OPS against .680 for Latos, .675 for Bailey. BAA .245 for Latos, .244 for Bailey.
Latos has given up 62 runs 54 ER. Bailey 69 and 67.
Both have been very, very good this year. All these numbers show it.
ERA? pfft. I mean I'll still look, but I no longer take it as the gospel that a pitcher is pitching well like I would have when I was younger. I barely grasp advanced metrics. But I like the top level ones like OPS, WHIP H/9 etc. Easy enough to grasp, simple components that allow me to look a little deeper without breaking out a calculator.
This is precisely why I consider ERA now an undervalued stat along with wins. I think Bailey CAN be as good as Latos, but his mentality is one that he loses it a little. His career ERA is a full run lower with Hanigan catching vs Mesoraco (171 IP 4.5 ERA, v 368 IP at 3.5) He needs the psychologist catcher. Here are their career stats in clutchish situations, Latos remains the same, Bailey needs Hannigan. In high leverage situations, Bailey has allowed 10 more HRs(over double in less AB) and 200 points on OPS. It may come down to fastball v slider as an out pitch. But the HR's in these situations would indicate that when Bailey is hit, he's being hit harder.
Code:
Latos G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
High Lvrge 122 655 574 127 126 22 4 7 48 137 2.85 0.220 0.280 0.308 0.588 0.270
Medium Lvrge 131 1587 1450 133 363 73 13 43 114 327 2.87 0.250 0.307 0.408 0.714 0.295
Low Lvrge 130 1083 993 41 206 39 4 25 86 300 3.49 0.207 0.273 0.330 0.603 0.271
2 outs, RISP 122 353 293 80 60 14 3 3 56 82 1.46 0.205 0.340 0.304 0.644 0.274
Ahead 94 1500 1370 138 337 58 12 39 102 334 3.27 0.246 0.301 0.391 0.692 0.297
Behind 67 719 640 74 143 39 3 8 66 158 2.39 0.223 0.295 0.331 0.626 0.281
Late & Close 49 236 216 17 53 8 5 2 14 46 3.29 0.245 0.293 0.356 0.650 0.302
Hannigan 29 764 694 72 161 36 3 25 52 176 3.38 0.232 0.290 0.401 0.690 0.275
Mesoraco 23 619 559 59 141 32 7 8 48 133 2.77 0.252 0.316 0.377 0.694 0.317
Bailey G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
High Lvrge 124 601 523 179 153 28 4 17 44 126 2.86 0.293 0.340 0.459 0.799 0.343
Medium Lvrge 135 1583 1433 142 375 63 11 45 120 307 2.56 0.262 0.324 0.415 0.739 0.304
Low Lvrge 135 1265 1154 58 290 55 4 32 95 234 2.46 0.251 0.314 0.389 0.703 0.290
2 outs, RISP 128 372 330 115 83 17 3 10 40 82 2.05 0.252 0.336 0.412 0.748 0.307
Ahead 95 1392 1259 149 335 64 7 36 110 274 2.49 0.266 0.326 0.414 0.740 0.311
Behind 79 879 773 121 222 38 2 28 79 140 1.77 0.287 0.360 0.450 0.810 0.319
Late & Close 39 155 137 14 40 11 0 5 14 34 2.43 0.292 0.355 0.482 0.837 0.354
Hannigan 59 1501 1374 142 318 57 8 36 100 326 3.26 0.231 0.288 0.363 0.652 0.277
Mesoraco 29 758 688 89 199 33 8 23 53 135 2.55 0.289 0.343 0.461 0.803 0.328
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
I think number 3 starter is fair for a solid pitching team.
#1 Starter stuff, #3 pitcher results.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
If you look above, Homer is great when things go well (2 no hitters)...
but is much worse when things don't go well (high leverage situations and pitching when behind)
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
How many #1s and #2s do you believe are out there? It's relevant when you claim Bailey is a 3.
I agree with the TALENTED 3.
Underlying stats of a 1 - WHIP,FIP,WAR
Results of a 3 - Wins (Tied for 32nd in the NL), ERA (29th in the NL)
Those who think his ERA is random think of him as a 1, those who think the difference between ERA and FIP is controllable - whether clutch or inconsistencies in his game think of him as a 3.
I personally think he presses when things don't go well, and becomes a worse pitcher than he should be.
Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me
I deliberately chose Bailey and Latos for the similarity of their numbers this year. Now swap Latos with Leake and you really see what I meant with this thread.
I'm a discussion ninja.