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Thanks for the research Redman. As I have stated before, if you are in the Dayton area and have the opportunity to see Todd Frazier bat, it is quite a treat. He is going to be one good ballplayer.
Code:Ranks Level Name Avg (min 30 AB's) Ranks Level Name HR
1 AAA Hairston JR .429 T1 A- Waring 5
2 A- Jones .412 T1 A- Frazier 5
3 AA Szymanski .386 T2 AAA Bruce 3
4 A+ Turner .375 T2 A+ Valaika 3
5 A- Waring .373 T2 A+ Francisco 3
Ranks Level Name Hits Ranks Level Name OBP
1 A+ Valaika 20 1 A- Jones .487
2 A+ Francisco 19 2 AAA Hairston JR .467
3 A- Waring 19 3 A- Frazier .464
4 AAA Bruce 18 T4 AA Gutierrez .429
5 AAA Hairston JR 18 T4 A+ Stubbs .424
Ranks Level Name Runs Ranks Level Name SLG
1 A- Fraizer 16 1 AAA Hairston JR .786
2 A- Waring 14 2 A- Frazier .778
3 A+ Stubbs 12 3 AA Szymanski .705
4 AA Bolivar 11 4 A- Waring .686
T5 A+ Heisey 10 5 A- Jones .647
T5 A- Jones 10
Ranks Level Name RBI's Ranks Level Name OPS
1 A- Waring 15 1 AAA Hairston JR 1.252
2 A+ Valaika 13 2 A- Frazier 1.242
3 AA Szymanski 13 3 A- Jones 1.134
4 A- Phipps 12 4 AA Szymanski 1.130
5 A+ Francisco 11 5 A- Waring 1.067
Ranks Level Name BB Ranks Level Name K's
1 A- Frazier 11 1 A- Reed 18
2 AA Gutierrez 10 2 A- Waring 17
3 A+ Stubbs 8 T3 AA Szymanski 16
4 A- Bolivar 7 T3 A+ Stubbs 16
5 AA Tatum 6 5 A- Menchaca 15
Code:Ranks Level Name Avg (min 60 AB's) Ranks Level Name HR
1 A+ Turner .395 1 A- Frazier 6
2 A- Jones .377 T2 A- Waring 5
3 A+ Valaika .359 T2 AAA Bruce 5
4 A+ Stubbs .333 T2 AA Szymanski 5
5 AAA Bruce .326 T5 A+ Francisco 4
T5 A+ Valaika 4
Ranks Level Name Hits Ranks Level Name OBP
1 A+ Valaika 37 1 A+ Turner .449
2 A+ Turner 32 2 A- Jones .441
T3 A+ Stubbs 29 3 AA Cumberland .424
T3 AAA Bruce 29 4 A+ Stubbs .416
5 A+ Francisco 28 5 A- Frazier .415
Ranks Level Name Runs Ranks Level Name SLG
1 A- Fraizer 20 1 A- Jones .639
2 A+ Stubbs 18 2 A- Frazier .638
T3 A+ Heisey 17 3 AAA Bruce .573
T4 A- Jones 17 4 A+ Valaika .544
T5 A- Waring 16 5 A- Waring .526
T5 AA Cumberland 16
Ranks Level Name RBI's Ranks Level Name OPS
1 A+ Valaika 25 1 A- Jones 1.081
2 A+ Francisco 20 2 A- Frazier 1.052
3 A- Phipps 18 3 A+ Turner .956
T4 A- Fraizer 17 4 AA Cumberland .952
T4 AAA Bruce 17 5 AAA Bruce .924
Ranks Level Name BB Ranks Level Name K's
T1 A- Frazier 14 1 A- Waring 30
T2 AA Gutierrez 14 2 AA Szymanski 27
T3 A+ Stubbs 11 T3 A Reed 26
T3 AA Cumberland 11 T3 A+ Stubbs 26
T3 AA Anderson 11 5 A+ Francisco 25
Great to see "Stubbs" pop up on that list several times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Redman15
Shouldnt be much longer til Waring and Frazier move up to A+. Those boys are lighting it up.
I would say the impressiveness of Stubbs showing up on the charts is somewhat overvalued. The part moreso impressive is has yet to show up in the Homerun category. The way i see it one of the various reasons he struggled so much from the get-go was the fact he was drafted as a future '5' tool guy. The thing is his power was only consistent when he approached the plate as a power hitter, which in turn drastically affected his K rate, lower his walks as he swung at everything, and killed his average. Having been in the minors long enough i think he's either grown more careless as the the reds expectations of him and grown into his own player, or the reds in fact have lowered there expectations on him easing of some of his pressure to achieve that 30/30 player type status. Im sure i drastically overexlained a quite simple explanation but im really thinking of thim as that Corey Patterson type player. not even close. but regardless lets just hope he keeps it up.
Actually Stubbs hit a HR last night. As for Stubbs lowering his walk rate by swinging for the fences.... he has one of the better walk rates in the system, so I don't think thats it at all. Brandon Waring, sure.... Drew Stubbs, not at all. I don't think the Reds ever expected him to be a 30/30 type guy. 20/30 type guy, yeah probably but never 30/30. As for him showing up being overvalued by showing up on the list.... I find it hard to believe any great defensive centerfielder that is hitting .348/.425/.543 with 13 steals in 13 attempts is in any way overvalued.Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetsport06
where should i begin. first off starting in 2006 up to 2008 minor league seasons stubbs K/BB ratio was 2:1, 2.1:1, and 2.5:1. basically his strikeout rate has been on the rise the past three seasons while his walks have dropped, not at any drastic rate; but they've dropped. in 2006 stubbs averaged 1 HR every 35 AB in '07 1HR every 41.5 AB and in '08 1HR every 92 AB's. so while his homerun rate has significantly dropped his strikeouts have risen and his walks dropped. this isnt anything made up. its facts. you cant rebuke the facts. now i completely agree with you that waring is far worse in that aspect as his K/BB rate was 4/1 in '07 and 6.1/1 in '08. but you could go off on a rather large list of players with a considerably better walk rate in the reds system than stubbs. for instance take a look at chris heisey. not only has his career .982 FP% beat stubbs .981 FP% while both have played in the exact same amount of games, but his stolen base percentage is 78% also beating stubbs rate of 74%. both players are very similar in regards to there minor league stats aside from heisey walking just as much as he K's. basically the only reason i say that stubbs is overvalued is because he truly is. heisey has just as much power. K's less, steals more bases, boasts just as good defense, just wasnt picked in the first round as stubbs was. that is just one of the various reasons stubbs is overvalued. really come on, must i continue?
In 2006 Stubbs strikeout % was 25.4, in 2007 it was 24.7 and this year its 25.5. His strikeout rate is essentially the exact same at the three levels he has played at. His walk rate over the same time has been 12.7%, 12% and 10.4%. His wak rate has slowed down just ever so slightly.Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetsport06
Yeah, and if he hits a HR tonight his HR rate in 2008 goes to roughly 1 per 48 AB's. Its way to early to be making HR per AB rates. Lets also take into account the leagues. So while I "can't rebuke facts" I will argue that they certainly aren't enough data available to make much of it. On the flip side, his XBH rate has gone up every year. He had an XBH% of 30.1%, 34.3% and 40.6% at each stop.Quote:
in 2006 stubbs averaged 1 HR every 35 AB in '07 1HR every 41.5 AB and in '08 1HR every 92 AB's. so while his homerun rate has significantly dropped his strikeouts have risen and his walks dropped. this isnt anything made up. its facts. you cant rebuke the facts.
Well aside from the fact that fielding % if a horrible stat that tells me next to nothing about a players actual defensive ability. As for stolen base %, do I need to remind you that Stubbs was playing with turf toe last year and hamstring issues in 2006? Dudes healthy this year and we are seeing it on the basepaths as he is 13 for 13 early on and on pace for 65-70 steals this year.Quote:
now i completely agree with you that waring is far worse in that aspect as his K/BB rate was 4/1 in '07 and 6.1/1 in '08. but you could go off on a rather large list of players with a considerably better walk rate in the reds system than stubbs. for instance take a look at chris heisey. not only has his career .982 FP% beat stubbs .981 FP% while both have played in the exact same amount of games, but his stolen base percentage is 78% also beating stubbs rate of 74%. both players are very similar in regards to there minor league stats aside from heisey walking just as much as he K's.
Except thats not close to true. Heisey doesn't have as much power. His isolated power numbers last year in Dayton were lower than Stubbs and his isolated power numbers this year in Sarasota are much lower than Stubbs. He does strikeout less. He may have better SB success in the past when Stubbs was hurt, but he isn't the stolen base threat that a healthy Drew Stubbs is. Heisey is 3 for 4 this year. Stubbs is 13 for 13 and has the most steals in the minors without being caught. Its not really close. As for the defense, Stubbs is in a different class than Heisey is out in CF.Quote:
basically the only reason i say that stubbs is overvalued is because he truly is. heisey has just as much power. K's less, steals more bases, boasts just as good defense, just wasnt picked in the first round as stubbs was. that is just one of the various reasons stubbs is overvalued. really come on, must i continue?
Feel free to continue if you want, but the only thing you were right on was that Heisey strikes out less.
on the contrary your just a sophistical arguer. going on about some facts or statistics completely inane to my original points doesnt make you any smarter. ive proven my point so theres nothing else to say. 9,526 posts dont make you any more perspicacious to the reds than myself.
i dont know why you can just 'assume' drew stubbs could hit a homer tonight. took him long enough to get his first one. id say 92 ABs gives a pretty good idea of there performance for that season. but you argued me wrong. so okay it doesnt. but that further proves what i believe in his .348 average an 13-13SB all being flaws. your right it'll even itself out soon enough.
I strayed from the point of your post? You said Stubbs was overvalued then tried to use Chris Heisey as a similar player to Stubbs to validate your point. I argued that the two aren't really close to being similar players and backed it up with some stats to prove my point.Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetsport06
Now if you want to continue to say that Stubbs is overvalued, feel free to do so. However you need to show what his value is, then show why its not accurate. At least to me, you haven't done that at all.
So where in his .348 and 13 steals is there a flaw? If you want to say his strikeouts, I will give you that. But where is a flaw in 13 for 13 in steals?Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetsport06
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougdirt