According to his own twitter:
Live BP felt amazing today! Looking forward to my first start Sunday! #Reds #FF #DD #GOE
https://twitter.com/NTravieso21
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According to his own twitter:
Live BP felt amazing today! Looking forward to my first start Sunday! #Reds #FF #DD #GOE
https://twitter.com/NTravieso21
I love how the starting pitching depth is spaced in the Red farm system.
They have Corcino, Suluran, Lotzkar, and Cingrani nearly ready now. At least one of them should make the jump successfully to AAA and would replace Arroyo after the 2013 season.
Over the next couple seasons, as Leake, Bailey, and Latos become more expensive, at least one of the others would likely replace the most expensive/ least productive of the major league trio. Quezada and Rogers provide intriguing but low ceiling depth should there be struggles or injuries over the next couple seasons. (An added bonus-- Red brass will likely be patient with high upside young arms, allowing them to show their true major league colors.) Then, as free agency/ big raises in arbitration loom, Stephenson and Tavieso are scheduled to be ready.
Assuming health, it's the perfect storm for keeping costs down and still having an effective rotation.
If you can't have blue chip hurlers at every level every year, this is a nice fall-back option.
Lotzkar isn't close to being ready and Sulbaran should move to the pen. The main 2 Reds pitching prospects are Cingrani and Corcino who both have questions and may end up as pen arms. Lotzkar is the only guy that has the complete tools to be a starter right now. But with his past injury history and struggles in AA, he is a 2 years off at least.
The next best pitching prospect who profiles as a starter is Mr.Stephenson down in rookie ball. Explains why the Reds drafted another arm.
Lotzkar, Corcino, Sulburan, and Cingrani will have been either exposed as pretenders or learned enough to continue to dominate opposing minor leaguers by the end of 2013. (And that's conservative with at least two of them.)
Arroyo will be a free agent at the end of the 2013 season. Bailey, Leake, and Latos will be free agents in 2016 and arbitration eligible in 2013.
That's six possible starting prospects/ candidates (with Chapman and Hoover, if they wish) to fill somewhere between one and four spots in the major league rotation in 2014.
That's an enviable situation to be in.
After that shakes out, you've got a couple guys with stuff and production enough to be considered for depth-- sixth or seventh starters, if you will. They should be ready a year or two after the aforementioned battle royale works out.
Then, at the end of 2015, you've got Stephenson and perhaps Travieso as free agent insurance.
Agree on all fronts, except I think you may be a little harsh on Corcino and Cingrani:Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage
Lotzkar still needs at least 2 more years in minor league development (during which he needs to stay healthy).
Sulbaran should probably move to the 'pen.
Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson, and Travieso are likely the Reds best pitching prospects in that order (although Lotzkar currently sits at #5 and could vault up the charts if/when he finds his control).
Stephenson and Travieso are both probably 3-4 years away from big league consideration.
Corcino and especially Cingrani could wind up in the 'pen, but at this point they both look like two pretty good starting pitching prospects that could be ready as soon as late next season or definitely OD 2014.
Yeah, don't get me wrong, I am not saying Corcino or Cingrani are pen bound for sure, but they do have the questions. Stephenson is the only guy that doesn't have those questions. We just hope he can stay healthy. Getting another good arm in there to increase talent was necessary. Hopefully by this time next year, the Reds can load up on bats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benihana
I'd like to see them move Hoover back to starting at Louisville. It would increase his value, either for the future with the Reds or in trade for need.
Hoover may be needed in the second half of the season.
I would stretch him out next season if he doesn't make the team out of Spring Training (though I'm guessing he will).
Nobody thinks Villareal could be a back end of the rotation guy? I get kind of an Elizardo vibe about him, but I think he at least should get a look and be in the conversation.
Hoover is a reliever. Its where his value lies and probably would be better out of Cincy. He'd be a guy I'd be offering around to try to get a bat.
I think Villarreal is a back end guy and I would say he is more than Elizardo was. Better stuff. Control isn't quite as good, but it is still pretty good. Villarreal has two above average pitches to his name.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
Hoover's minor league starting numbers are more than solid. His last season as a full-time starter, as a 22-year-old in A+ and AA, he went 14-7 with a 3.29 ERA with more IP than hits allowed (153.1 - 141). He also had an 8.9 K/9 that season. The only reason he was moved to the pen was because Atlanta had a ton of young starters.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
While he's not an ace, he'd be more than adequate as a MOR guy for a few years.
As a bullpen arm, he's a shut-down back-end guy. He's toying with AAA hitters so far this season.
There's absolutely no reason to deal a cheap, effective reliever with above average stuff unless you're receiving a guy that's well above average. Far better to deal the more expensive Arredondo.
What would you get for Arredondo? A rebuilding team wants more years of control. A contender isn't giving a bat. A team with a bat to offer is after a piece for the future. I'd rather deal Hoover than Cingrani, Corcino, H-Rod, Didi or Hamilton. They don't want Ondrusek or Arredondo. A contender might take those guys, but would only offer fringe prospects IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrap Irony
Hoover is a fly ball machine. He looks an awful lot like Sam Lecure to me. Lecure as a 22 Y/O in A+ 3.43 ERA, with 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. The Braves knew what they were doing when they moved him to the pen. He went from a fringe AAAA starting prospect to a pretty good back of the bullpen prospect. I doubt he'd draw much interest as a starter.
A fly ball machine? You're judging Hoover on the 18 IP in the majors?
Really?
Wow.
To be fair, Hoover has been a rather big fly ball pitcher in the minors too. His GB rate from 2010-2012 is 35.6%. Translate that to the Majors and he would rank him 20th in the Majors this season in terms of highest non-groundball rate among the 211 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrap Irony
Where does it rank in minor league baseball? In the Southern League? In AAA/ International League?
(I'd look but can't find where you're getting ground ball rates from.)