Strategy by Boras; empty verbiage by Walt. Can we imagine Walt saying anything else? Could he say, even if he thought it, "No, we really don't see Choo working out here beyond this year."
I don't see a logjam in the outfield in 2014 if the Reds can work out a deal with Choo.
Ludwick only appeared in 125 regular season games last year. Dusty rests him very frequently. And Hamilton will be a rookie in 2014, the Reds tend to break rookies in slowly.
For 2014, Reds could easily go with all four of them, with maybe Heisey being traded.
After that, they can let Ludwick go or re-sign him to a cheaper contract as a backup.
The issue is how well Choo does this year, how much money the Reds are willing to pay him, how long a deal they are willing to give. But I don't see a major logjam out there.
A) I've maintained Ludwick's effectively on a one-year deal that pays him over the span of two years. If the Reds get a return on investment in 2013, then I don't mind him being a role player in 2014.
B) I wouldn't sign Choo for five years. Three strikes me as the right length of deal for him, maybe with an option for a 4th year.
C) Arroyo's contract comes off the books after this season, so the Reds will have money to play with.
D) Hamilton and Choo hitting 1-2 in the lineup would be kind of awesome.
What's a fair guess/comp for Choo for his next contract? $12 mill a year?
Swisher got 4 at $56. Is that a more reasonable guess?
I know the Reds pulled some rabbits out of their hat in recent years with extensions etc but I just don't see the team having the bank to keep Choo around. Not without trading off a high priced salary somewhere else on the team.
Since the Choo trade, I've also read a lot suggesting he's not the surest thing in RF in terms of speed and routes.
I'm not saying I'd mind seeing him re-signed past 2013, though I'd expect it to be cost-prohibitive.
Actually, I'd probably hate to see Choo go and lose the LH bat. I guess we can hope he stays and the team has an embarrassment of OF options.
I don't think it's likely, but trading for Choo at huge discount and then signing him up long-term would be Walt Jockety 101.
I would say Choo gets at least that. He's a better overall player than Swisher IMO. I suppose a lot depends on his 2013 performance.Quote:
Originally Posted by I(heart)
Sign Choo long term? Yes, please!
This isn't your father's Reds anymore.
Of all outfielders with at least 500 plate appearances last year, he had the 16th highest runs created per 27 outs. As an aside, Drew Stubbs was the worst.
Of all the outfielders with at least 1000 plate appearances over the last 3 years, he is #12 in RC27.
Considering that by my count, there are 90 starting outfielders playing in the major leagues at any given time, that puts him in the 86th offensive percentile, which makes him very good. Conservatively, it makes him just about a top 100 player. But because of his good defense (or perhaps, better stated, the subpar defense of some of many of the guys who hit better than he does), I'd rank him in the top 75 for sure.
Here is the list of the 12 outfielders who have hit better than Choo over the last 3 years (as measured by RC27), followed by the 16 who hit better than him last year. By the way, I agree with the person who said that Swisher was a good comp for the type of contract Choo could have expected if he had hit free agency this offseason. Their RC27 is nearly the same (Swisher a smidge higher) both last year and over the last 3 years. However, Swisher is a couple years older.
Outfielders who have been better offensive players than Choo over last 3 seasons (with at least 1000 total PAs)
Outfielders who were better offensive players than Choo last year (with at least 500 PAs)
Let me put it this way, if Choo isn't "great," then the only "great" non-pitcher on this roster is Joey Votto.
Just noticed too (sorry if this was mentioned already) that MLBTraderumors shows Choo as the #6 free agent going into 2014. Plus, four of the five guys ahead of him could see their stock drop below Choo if their recent injuries flare up again.
If Choo has a good year this year, I see somebody paying him a lot - probably quite a bit more than he's worth - given the expected scarcity of impact free agents.
I think Walt never rules anything out. It would be foolish to.
Honesty, we need a bat like 2012 Ludwick batting cleanup. I don't expect Frasier to be able to do that (although he is a nice player).
While we also need a leadoff hitter, we have Hamilton coming up, which makes it less urgent to sign Choo after this year.
I just find it hard to believe that Ludwick is going to make 7 million to be a 4th OF. He'd have to be traded if the Reds extended Choo. I think Choo is going to get 15 million/year or more from someone this offseason, and it won't be the Reds.
Extending Choo is a longshot, because unless Bruce or Ludwick suffer a career threatening injury, it just doesn't make sense. The money wil likely go to arbitration guys.
Heck, if Bronson has another good year, and is willing to come back on a short term contract after 2013, a case could be made that he adds more bang for the buck than extending Choo in our already full OF.
He's two years younger than Swish; I bet he gets 6 years, which is too much for the Reds IMO. They've got plenty of time to decide, of course, but I'd say if Ludwick performs anywhere close to last season's results, they'll stick with him in left and plan to replace him in 2015.