Also, I'd move him in a second in the right deal.
Absolutely he does have a lot of value to the Reds.
This rotation was a strength in 2012 and to a lesser degree in 2013, but in 2014, for all the reasons mentioned, it could be a question mark.
Who knows what a new pitching coach might try to do, an attempt to tweak a mechanical flaw [real or perceived] could throw any one of our guys back a few steps.
I won't say I'm worried about the rotation, but I'm not as confident as I was coming into 2013.
Now he did have ten no-decisions, so those games need to be explored, but they couldn't be that bad given his ERA.
I know that it's more fashionable to rely on WAR or xFIP or to focus on peripherals, but I think most teams would view Leake as a successful pitcher in 2013.
Take along with that his relative youth, his health, his athleticism, his good hitting and fielding, and I think Leake is quite valuable. His big downside is he isn't a huge bat misser. Many teams prefer guys who strike out more hitters.
But Leake is valuable and I would only trade him for very good value. Particularly with the injuries to so many others on the Reds last season.
Leake at age 25 had fewer K's and IP than Arroyo at age 36.
Leake's K rate is trending down.
His value is high, but his peripherals state he's walking a tightrope. He doesn't limit hits, doesn't limit walks. I'll give him this though, he's pretty good at limiting the HR. But it ain't like he's Cueto-esque at it. If his HR's for a season rise to the mid to upper 20's, with the rest of his peripherals he's a mid 4 ERA guy.
So get something for him now, while his value is high. I'd much rather see Cingrani in his spot.
When did the trade rumor thread become the bickering about Mike Leake thread?
Pitching depth is an underrated asset, and whether you like him or not, he has proven his value on a pitching staff. It's foolish to think you only need 5 quality starting pitchers in a 162 game season.
I've always felt that Leake will be as effective as his home run rate.
He's a ground ball pitcher who too often has been burned by the long ball. Just not a good combination.
In 2012 he had a 1.31 HR rate. Not good. In 2013 he was much more effective. .98 HR rate.
In 2012 Leake had a HR/FB rate of 16.7%
In 2013 Leake had a HR/FB rate of 11.5%.
Leake allows too many baserunners to give up home runs. If he can throw ground balls with consistency, he's very good. If he allows a bunch of homers in any particular year, he's toast.
Still young, a lot of positive attributes, a valuable pitcher. But he needs to perfect the art of keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding long balls.
MLBTR Offseason Outlook on the Brewers. Author suggests the Brewers might be more prone to moving Aoki. They have Khris Davis who can only play left and Gomez solidified in Center. Braun will likely have to move to right which leaves Aoki in limbo. Author suggests they use him as a trade chip.
Could be a potential Choo-like trade where we can get an OF for a year rental. He is only owed $1.5M in 2014, he has a low strikeout rate, great contact and leadoff hitter, looks to be nearly the same against both LHP and RHP, and he has experience (limited in left and center) in every outfield position. His defense isn't spectacular, but he posted a positive dWar in both seasons in the MLB. Also, he not does have the power than Choo does.
I would hate to see Choo go, but Aoki might be an answer to the void left by Choo. Billy might not be ready and Aoki could be the next stop gap player until he is ready. Also, would hate to trade in the division, but we have done it in the past (Marshall trade). Also, I would think that if Choo does resign with us, then we can still explore Aoki for a LF. Would help with the top of the lineup too. However, we would have 4 lefties in the lineup (Votto, Aoki, Choo, and Bruce), but given Aoki's success against lefties, it might not be as bad to bat them back to back to back....
Something like this: