Preliminary grades now posted:
one A
three B+
four B-
seven C+
twenty C
Not hard to speculate on the top grades. The B- and C+ will be interesting. All together, a little better than I was expecting.
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Preliminary grades now posted:
one A
three B+
four B-
seven C+
twenty C
Not hard to speculate on the top grades. The B- and C+ will be interesting. All together, a little better than I was expecting.
Preliminary Grade Breakdown is up
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/...rade-breakdown
Edit; ooops missed this page of the thread. I assume the Grade A is Corky or Stephenson. We know BHam is b+ based on sickels comment to one of the postings.Quote:
35 players
One Grade A
Three Grade B+
Zero Grade B
Four Grade B-
Seven Grade C+
20 Grade C
There is some play there but it does strike me as a top-heavy system. Feel free to speculate on the grades of course. That's the point of this!
What Grades Mean:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...at-grades-mean
Quote:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Grade A prospects should develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who have a significant question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
Also note that there is diversity within each category and there are many borderline cases. A player rated as a Grade B+ may every well become a star, but there may be something that gives some doubt at this stage of his career, for example a player with great tools but who lacks refinement, experience, or who we just don't have a lot of data for. A Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Again, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
Holmberg's a safe bet for B-. Sickels had him as a B last year. Corcino had been a B+, so it will be interesting to see how far he drops. Travieso had been a B-, but Sickels likes performance so I'd expect a drop there. Moscot had been a C+ and could bounce up. SMB also had been C+ and possibly could be in for a bump (at the very least he should maintain where he was).
My guess:
Stephenson A
Hamilton, Ervin and Winker B+
Y-Rod, Holmberg, Lorenzen and Lively B-
Corcino, Rogers, Barnhart, Moscot, Contreras, SMB and Travieso C+ (Travieso and Lively could be flipped).
(edited per my prior omission of Travieso; also upgraded Lively. This is my guess on Sickels as well as how I would grade them personally.)
I'd be mildly in shock if Travieso gets above a C+. Holmberg, Lorenzen and Yorman are probably the safe bets for B-. Of those three, I'd say Lorenzen is the one with the biggest chance of dropping to C+ (Sickels often takes a cautious approach to guys who struggle out of the gate), though I expect his raw tools will keep him in the B-.The 4th guy is where the mystery lies. Could be Lively, Moscot, Contreras or SMB. All four have cases to make.
I think an A and 3 B+'s is pretty good. With a little luck you are talking about maybe one of the 4 becoming a superstar, 1 becoming a star and 1 becoming a league average player. All of them should end the year in at least AA, and a few may end in AAA.
So, there does look to be some help close.
That's not a little luck, that's a whole heaping mess of luck.
I'd even say one star + one league average + two washouts is more than a little luck.
One league average + one useful bench/bullpen spare part + two washouts is probably the norm.
Hopefully the Reds beat the norm and get a star out of the deal or two league average guys.
I think ALL 4 are likely to be at least regular major leaguers for a while. The whole thing about A and B+ rankings is exactly that. Their wash rate is low except for injury cases. The washout rate gets much higher as you go down the letter grades. I'd guess maybe 10% of C players make the big leagues for more than a cup of coffee.
I wonder what position has the lowest washout rate for prospects?
Corner OF has got to be up there. Ervin and Winker seem like safe bets to become major leaguer regulars. Stephenson too so long as he stays healthy. Hamilton is the wild card IMO.
I haven't seen a study as far as guys already in the minor leagues, but I have seen studies showing first round draft picks, and the safest was college third basemen, while catchers (high school or college) were the biggest wash outs (they were within 1% of each other).
It would be interesting to see the washout rates over the last say 15 years of BA and Sickels ranked guys.