Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedlegJake
I think ALL 4 are likely to be at least regular major leaguers for a while. The whole thing about A and B+ rankings is exactly that. Their wash rate is low except for injury cases.
Daniel Corcino was a B+ last year.
Do you think he is a good bet to be a major league starter?
Go back and look at some of the rankings for the last decade. There are tons of A and B+ prospects who never pan out. Sure, they don't wash out as often as C prospects (almost all of whom wash out), but they still wash out at high rate. I'd guess that only half of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball for any given year ever amount to anything. A 50% washout rate beats the heck out of a 95% washout rate, but it's still a darn high hurdle for a prospect to clear.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Benihana
I wonder what position has the lowest washout rate for prospects?
Corner OF has got to be up there. Ervin and Winker seem like safe bets to become major leaguer regulars. Stephenson too so long as he stays healthy. Hamilton is the wild card IMO.
I'd argue corner OF and 1B have some of the highest washout rates, because their ability to stick hinges entirely on their bats. Defense oriented guys who play up the middle positions can hang around in the majors for a very long time even if they can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag.
A good defensive shortstop always has value. A good defensive LF? Not so much.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
I do think Corcino is a good bet to be a major league reliever. I get your point but prospect ranking is fluid, too. Few guys who rate an A washout from that perch - they get injured or reach a level they no longer continue to advance so part of it is also what level a prospect is at. An A grade at A ball is not a good bet, I'd agree with your 50% at that level. An A at AAA is much more sure - not perfect (ala Brandon Larson) but much higher odds.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Steve4192
Daniel Corcino was a B+ last year.
Do you think he is a good bet to be a major league starter?
Go back and look at some of the rankings for the last decade. There are tons of A and B+ prospects who never pan out. Sure, they don't wash out as often as C prospects (almost all of whom wash out), but they still wash out at high rate. I'd guess that only half of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball for any given year ever amount to anything. A 50% washout rate beats the heck out of a 95% washout rate, but it's still a darn high hurdle for a prospect to clear.
I think Corcino projects as a #3 guy on the Reds.
Including Stephenson and Cingrani I believe the Reds have the best young pitchers in the Central and I don't think it's particularly close.
Cingrani > Miller
Stephenson >> Wacha
Corcino > Martinez.
Coupled with the Reds superior development for hitters(Bham is the best non-pitching prospect in the Central, for example) I suspect that the Reds farm system will be the driving force behind the continuation of the current Reds dynasty.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Steve4192
I'd even say one star + one league average + two washouts is more than a little luck.
Again, I'm reminded that the Reds have just been the recipients of more than a little luck in this department. I really did not expect all four of their blue chippers from awhile back (Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto) to be major leaguers, let alone the players they are. Depending how you define it, you've got one superstar, one repeat all-star and two borderline all-stars from the same group. And certainly no washouts... and really not any average major leaguers at this point (Bailey is the only one who has floated around that level, but he looks to be on the uptick now).
(I think at the time Sickels had them as two A's and two A-'s, but still, the Reds were very fortunate).
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
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Originally Posted by
RealitySetsIn
Cingrani > Miller
Stephenson >> Wacha
Corcino > Martinez.
I want to believe you, but this strikes me as a lot of homerism. Miller and Cingrani are comparable, but I don't think that's a clear advantage to the Reds. Wacha has already pitched in the majors and Stephenson hasn't. Corcino isn't really better than many pitchers right now after last year's slide.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RealitySetsIn
I think Corcino projects as a #3 guy on the Reds.
Including Stephenson and Cingrani I believe the Reds have the best young pitchers in the Central and I don't think it's particularly close.
Cingrani > Miller
Stephenson >> Wacha
Corcino > Martinez.
Coupled with the Reds superior development for hitters(Bham is the best non-pitching prospect in the Central, for example) I suspect that the Reds farm system will be the driving force behind the continuation of the current Reds dynasty.
Cingrani = Miller
Wacha = Stephenson (but Stephenson is higher risk)
Rosenthal >> Martinez >>>>> Corcino
Oscar Taveras, Javier Baez, Gregory Polanco, Kris Bryant and Albert Almora are all higher-rated NL Central prospects than Billy Hamilton in my opinion. Jorge Soler is equal to Billy Hamilton.
The Brewers are the only minor league system in the NL Central that is not better than the Reds' system right now.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedEye
I want to believe you, but this strikes me as a lot of homerism. Miller and Cingrani are comparable, but I don't think that's a clear advantage to the Reds. Wacha has already pitched in the majors and Stephenson hasn't. Corcino isn't really better than many pitchers right now after last year's slide.
Miller strikes me as a flash in the pan. He hasn't had the sustained success in the majors that Cingrani has.
Wacha isn't nearly as good as everyone thinks he is, and his performance all last year and the year prior was a fluke. I expect him to regress to a 4.50 ERA career pitcher with a K rate under 7 per 9 innings. Stephenson will be a Cy Young contender in 2 years.
Martinez' has weak stuff; he basically lacks any plus pitches. Corcino is younger, and has better pitches across the board.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedlegJake
I do think Corcino is a good bet to be a major league reliever. I get your point but prospect ranking is fluid, too. Few guys who rate an A washout from that perch - they get injured or reach a level they no longer continue to advance so part of it is also what level a prospect is at. An A grade at A ball is not a good bet, I'd agree with your 50% at that level. An A at AAA is much more sure - not perfect (ala Brandon Larson) but much higher odds.
Three of the four Reds guys mentioned are at A ball. That's why I am skeptical.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
AtomicDumpling
Wacha = Stephenson (but Stephenson is higher risk)
I really believe that a guy that put up a 4.86 ERA and a 4.94 FIP and in AA is significantly better than a guy that a 2.73 ERA and a 3.15 FIP across 20 major league starts last season, including the postseason.
Stephenson has simply shown himself to be better.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
AtomicDumpling
I'm sensing a troll.
Good call. I was crafting a response, but I think you nailed it.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
AtomicDumpling
I'm sensing a troll.
No more or less than those in last year's prediction thread where the following things were claimed:
Bruce and Votto would each hit 40+ HRs
Cueto, Latos, and Bailey would finish in the top 5 for Cy Young.
The cardinals wouldn't win 70 games.
The reds would win a playoff series.
Historically, nothing I claimed is any more egregious than those claims.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
Top twenty is now posted.
Re: Sickels 2014 rankings
For the most part similar to RZ. Surprises were no Franklin and no Ortiz. Also, Rahier is back and Rosa is gone. Crabbe was added. Besides Rosa, Duran was removed from the preliminary list.
I think his summary nailed it. He evaluates the organization as being around the middle and notes that there are a number of C's at low levels that could make the system look much better in a year.