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Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

So I wrote this little peice for my website and basically it compares Jay Bruce with Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns in their first time around the midwest league. Take it all for what its worth, which is pretty much just a little bit of fun to look at. But I thought I would share it with you guys incase you dont check my site.

I just wrote up a little piece for my website on Jay Bruce and his comparison to both Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns as 19 year old outfielders in the Midwest League. Anyways, here you go.

Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

You know, it is really hard to project players in the minor leagues as far as what they will do in the Major Leagues. It is even tougher to do with a player who is still in Single A baseball. So far this season I have been extremely impressed with Jay Bruce, who is currently playing for Dayton in the Midwest League. He is just a month in, as the minor league season started April 6th and today is now May 6th. Bruce has played in 26 games and has put up some impressive stats at the plate. Throw in the fact that he has been through slumps of 0-18 and 1-15 this season and it really jumps out at you.

Like I stated before, there isn’t exactly an easy way to project how someone will be as a major league when you are talking about a player who is still in the mow minor leagues like Bruce is. On the other hand, it sure is fun to compare what a player does in the same league as other guys at the same age. Two of the Reds current stud outfielder, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns both have played in the Midwest league where Jay is currently playing. Lets take a look at their stats for their season in the Midwest League at the age of 19.

Code:

Adam Dunn - 1999 Midwest League Season - Age 19

Year         AB         R         H         2B         3B         HR         RBI         BB         SO         Avg         Obp         Slg

1999         313     62         96         16         2         11         44         46         64         .307         .399         .476



Austin Kearns - 1999 Midwest League Season - Age 19

Year         AB         R         H         2B         3B         HR         RBI         BB         SO         Avg         Obp         Slg

1999         426     72         110         36         5         13         48         50         120         .258         .340         .458



Jay Bruce - 2006 Midwest League Season - Age 19

Year         AB         R         H         2B         3B         HR         RBI         BB         SO         Avg         Obp         Slg

2006         104         18         29         9         2         5         18         8         20         .279         .322         ..548

Now lets say Bruce as man at bats as Austin Kearns did in 1999, that would put him on pace for 37 doubles, 21 home runs and 74 RBI. Will he stay on that current pace? No one really knows, but at least early this season, Bruce is showing some good power in his bat and he is producing runs. Not to bad for a kid who some scouts have said that his bat won't come around for a few years.

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

I think he's a lot like Kearns, at least his arm is... he has a rifle arm.

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye? Seems that he's on a pace to have similiar numbers to Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns for every category besides walks.

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Bruce seems like a good candidate to either see Sarasota this year or skip it altogether and start next year in Chatty.

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

Originally Posted by edabbs44

It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

Major leauge pitching happened.

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

Originally Posted by edabbs44

It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

His BA upsets you in spite of the fact that he has an OBP of .385 during his time in the majors? You get upset very easily.

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

Originally Posted by edabbs44

It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

You think that's bad, look at how far Dunn's OBP has dropped! :eek:

Trade him now! :D

Code:

Year        Team Name        League        Age        Org.        Level        G        AB        R        H        2B        3B        HR        RBI        SB        CS        BB        SO        HBP        IBB        SH        SF        DP         Avg        Obp        Slg        Ops

1998         Billings        Pio        18        Cin        Rk        34        125        26        36        3        1        4        13        4        2        22        23        3        1        0        1        3         .288        .404        .424        828

1999         Rockford        Midw        19        Cin        A        93        313        62        96        16        2        11        44        21        9        46        64                                                 .307        *.399        .476        *875

2000         Dayton                Midw        20        Cin        A        122        420        101        118        29        1        16        79        24        5        100        101        12        4        0        6        10         .281        .428        .469        897

2001         Chattanooga        Sou        21        Cin        AA        39        140        30        48        9        0        12        31        6        3        24        31                3        1        0        1         .343        *.441        .664        *1105

2001         Louisville        IL        21        Cin        AAA        55        210        44        69        13        0        20        53        5        1        38        51                3        0        1        1         .329        *.434        .676        *1110

2001         Cincinnati Reds        MLB        21        Cin        MLB        66        244        54        64        18        1        19        43        4        2        38        74        4        2        0        0        4         .262        .371        .578        949

2002         Cincinnati Reds        MLB        22        Cin        MLB        158        535        84        133        28        2        26        71        19        9        128        170        9        13        1        3        8         .249        .400        .454        854

2003         Cincinnati Reds        MLB        23        Cin        MLB        116        381        70        82        12        1        27        57        8        2        74        126        10        8        0        4        4         .215        .354        .465        819

2004         Cincinnati Reds        MLB        24        Cin        MLB        161        568        105        151        34        0        46        102        6        1        108        195        5        11        0        0        8         .266        .388        .569        957

2005         Cincinnati Reds        MLB        25        Cin        MLB        160        543        107        134        35        2        40        101        4        2        114        168        12        14        0        2        6         .247        .387        .540        927

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Avg has dropped Homers have gone up.

Good trade off if you ask me.

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye?

Everyone said he had good patience when we drafted him, so I wouldn't be too worried yet over 100AB's

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

Originally Posted by KronoRed

Avg has dropped Homers have gone up.

Good trade off if you ask me.

Strikeouts have went up as well. More K's, more production.

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BRM

Strikeouts have went up as well. More K's, more production.

I love strike outs

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

Originally Posted by KronoRed

I love strike outs

Doesn't everyone?

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

Originally Posted by KronoRed

I love strike outs

strikouts are sKrappy

Re: Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oxilon

What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye? Seems that he's on a pace to have similiar numbers to Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns for every category besides walks.

IIRC, Bruce was rated as having the second best plate discipline among high school hitters in the 2005 draft. I think Bruce will take the path of Marlins prospect Jeremy Hermida. He was rated as having great plate discipline coming out of the draft - his walk rates his first year was OK, but it wasn't until year two when he started showing that great eye.

I am very high on Jay Bruce. The power he is showing at 19 years old is very encouraging. I believe he now has 16(9 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs) extra-base hits in just over 100 atbats. I hope to see him protecting Adam Dunn in the Reds lineup in a few years.