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 GridironGrace 08-24-2006 03:00 PM

Reds Remaining Schedule

Aight, just got bored started doing a little math :)

Anyways we have 22 Away Games remaining. We are currently 31-28 on the Road. which is .525

If we continue to play .525 ball on the road we will win 11.5 Games on the road.

13 Remaining home games. currently 35-33 for .514. Playing .514 in those 13 and we win 6.6 more games at home.

11.5 + 6.6 = 18.1

So If baseball is mathmatical we will win 18 MORE games based on our current %'s.

66-61 Currently

if we finish 18-17 in the last 35 games we will finish with a record of: 84-78

Now there is much more to factor in here. We are 6-4 against the pirates with 6 more games to play against them.

Pirates 6 more games, 6-4 vs them
Dodgers 3 more games, 0-3 vs them
Giants 7 games, 0-0
Marlins 3 Games, 2-1
Cubs 7 Games, 5-7
Astros 3 Games, 9-3

So based on those %'s We:
Win 4 vs Pirates
Win 0 vs Dodgers
Win ? vs Padres and Giants
Win 2 vs Marlins
Win 3 vs Cubs
Win 2 vs Astros

See the important games? 11 Wins + what we can get vs the Padres and Giants.

Therefore the next 2 weeks are VERY VERY IMPORTANT. All the games are important but these 13 Games against teh padres and Giants could be the diff in a winning season.....or another season below .500

11 wins + .500 ball in those 13 will be 17 wins.. .600 ball is roughly 19 wins

Sorry if this is confusing but it aint to me lol i just bascilly took down notes on here as i did some figuring.

How i think we'll finish Based on What I did here:

Win 4 vs Pirates
Win 1 vs Dodgers
Win 5 vs Giants
Win 2 vs Marlins
Win 3 vs Cubs
Win 2 vs Astros

Thats a 20-15 Record to finish the season.. sitting us at:
86-76.

But hey, ask me again in 10-15 Games.. cause like i said.. after our 13 games against the Padres and Giants, I feel we'll have a firm grasp on where we gonna be.

 GridironGrace 08-24-2006 03:11 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr what i gotta do to get a convo going? :(

 cincrazy 08-24-2006 04:07 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

You make some good points. But also, we have to take into account the schedule of other teams. The West teams all will beat up on each other the rest of the year, while I think I read the other day that the Phillies, as of right now, don't play another team the rest of the season with a winning record. Which can help them or hurt them. They play losing teams, but they don't get the chance to play the teams they're chasing like us. So, hopefully this next month will end up the way we want it to... with a playoff trip.

 cincrazy 08-24-2006 04:09 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

Well, I guess technically we're not playing any teams we're "chasing" the rest of the way. But we do have big games against teams right behind us in the Wild Card and can create some distance. The Phillies play no Western division teams the rest of the year, nor do they play us or the Cards, so they're gonna need some help to get in. While it can be said that the Reds, for the most part, can control their own destiny with a good two weeks out West.

 Joseph 08-24-2006 04:12 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

I'm wagering 85 wins gets us to the playoffs.

 GridironGrace 08-24-2006 04:24 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

im not trying to gauge how many wins its gonna take just yet.

All i know is ive stuck to the "15 wins a month" theory all season, and to tell you the truth if we can finish this month with 5 more wins. then come out with 15 wins next month til the last day we are in folks!!! And even if we fall short of that by 3-4 games i think we are still in.

As for the Phillies they play the mets over the weekend so we could POSSIBLY gain some ground unless they beat up on the mets again.

 BurnYrHouseDown 08-24-2006 07:26 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

I like this mathematical approach to speculation, but only to a point. Pennant race baseball is so emotional that numbers often times skew going into the home stretch. Look at some of Houston's teams from the last couple of years, or some past Oakland teams.

I suspect that we're about to see a couple of teams start winning a lot more than they have all season leaving everyone else in the dust.

I suspect the teams who start winning more than everyone else will be Cincy and Philly. Neither team should really be where they are, but there's just something about them...

The big question mark, in this scenario then becomes, what about St. Louis.

So while I like looking at statistics to get a general idea of what our team is capable of (which you've done an excellent job of providing), the last month of the season is notorious for tossing all sorts of surprises at us.

 GridironGrace 08-24-2006 07:42 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

Thanks.. Im just trying to Gauge something here.. to look harder at what we have left in the season.. and im liking it after i did that..

but your right.. the "Sept, baseball fever" has no laws, and no way of figuring it lol

 Team Clark 08-24-2006 09:33 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GridironGrace Thanks.. Im just trying to Gauge something here.. to look harder at what we have left in the season.. and im liking it after i did that.. but your right.. the "Sept, baseball fever" has no laws, and no way of figuring it lol

Great work. You'll have a good idea of whether or not you have a good formula in two weeks. Pretty good hypothesis.

 GridironGrace 08-24-2006 09:37 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

Hope soo... if all goes well id love to see my predictions fall to a "T" and us win 86 Games lol

 Gizmo 08-24-2006 09:38 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

Nice looking numbers, let's play better than the numbers show, not worse. I still can't forget 1999 and Milwaukee. I'm sure we had some numbers going for us then too. :cry:

 GridironGrace 08-24-2006 09:43 PM

Re: Reds Remaining Schedule!

If i get a chance later.. or tomorrow maybe i'll run this same thing with the Cards schedule.. so we have both :)

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