Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Travis Wood
6. Drew Stubbs
7. Chris Valaika
8. Sam LeCure
9. Milton Loo

This should be an interesting one.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

I went with Sean Watson. He can bring the heat, and throw 3 other pitches as well. Lots of upside in him.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

I've been gone a little while, but I must say I'm a bit surprised... miffed, if you will.. maybe even a little dissapointed at how this community sees the Reds top 10.

Maybe its just me.. but I just don't see how a guy like Valaika, a guy pegged as an uber utility guy - even with his debut - gets put ahead of Loo. Loo could be an above average player at a premium position. Valaika was a college bat feasting on rookie level pitching. He did exactly what he should have done, and until he does it at higher levels, call me cautiously optimistic.

I am not trying to rag on the forum community here, but its curious to me what posters on here value in terms of grading/judging prospects. It seems to me overall ceiling isn't as big of a factor as it should be IMO - perhaps this community leans more towards performance and results - rather than projection. If thats the case, thats okay - but I'd seriously urge people trying to learn more about the prospect world to reconsider how they evaluate a prospect. I am sorry, but it just baffles me that a guy that most consider to be a utility infielder at best, gets a notch over a guy like Loo, who provides a potential big bat, at a premium position. Someone enlighten me please!

Just my humble opinion, and i'm not targeting anyone specifically - So no one should take this as an attack. I'm just trying to spark some discussion really, understand where people are coming from, why they voted they way they did, etc.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

I agree.. I was tempted to put Obispo in just off hype alone, but I like Watson's upside, his pitching repetiore(sp?), and his ability to move quickly through the system.

I thought about Shafer too, and I like him.. but between Watson and Shafer, I think Watson clearly has the higher upside.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

Personally I was really close with Loo and Valaika, but went with Valaika over Loo because he has more pop in his bat. I am not so sure Valaika is viewed as a utility guy. He has played at a big college, played for Team USA and tore through rookie ball. Sure he should do good in rookie ball, but I liked what I saw in his stats and the few video peices I was able to see of him. He has really good bat speed.

As for how I look at prospects, I would say its about 60% upside, 10% make up, 20% chance of reaching their upside and 10% where they currently are in the system.
With that said, Josh Ravin is my next pick after Watson goes up. I think with his stuff, his upside would put him well ahead of almost anyone else left.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

I went with Shafer in the last poll, and I'm going with Shafer again in this one.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

I will vote Watson this time. His upside is pretty good plus his command of several pitches.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

I'm not as high on Loo because most of his projection comes from speed and batting average. The speed may always be there, but the ability to hit for average at the pro level is tough to project from from someone who's hardly played any pro ball. I'll give decent ratings to unproven guys who have tons of power or amazing stuff, but when you're putting all your chips into lacing the ball around the field, I'd rather see him prove it first.

With that in mind, I'm gonna go with Janish again. I thought about Watson, but his college stats were so inconsistent, I'd rather see what he does next year before I get excited over his stuff.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

You guys really think Valakia has more pop in his bat than Loo? I still think Loo has a lot of projection, and room to grow.

I like Valaika too guys, but most everything I read on the guy says he wont stick at SS, which in my mind, seriously decreases his value. I don't know that he'd hit enough for 3rd base, but he would make a nice 2b prospect. In any case, Loo seems like a pretty sure bet to be a guy who man's the hot corner, with above average offensive potential, and at the very least average defense.

Valaika isn't super big - 6'0 and 195.. about my size. He def. has a good track record with team USA. I defenitely like his makeup, as he came back and worked seriosly hard to get in shape after a bad injury to the knee. He has quick hands, but IMO, just average power. His hands are good on D and Offense, but he lacks range, which IMO limits his value. If he can't stick at SS, then his value decreases considerably in my eyes. He's barely an average runner. And again, most things I read about him point to being a utility infielder - even MLB.com's draft day scouting report states "utility infielder". I personally think he can be better than that, but...

When you look at Milton Loo, on the other hand - although he's not much bigger, he seemingly offers more projection. He is a 5 tool talent, thats for sure.. I think he has a lot more raw or untapped power than he's shown thus far, and I think at the very min. his power will be on par with Valaika. Hitting is def. his best tool, but he's a great athlete, and I think he could play SS if the Reds wanted him too. He's got good range, above average arm, and solid actions. He seems like a team leader to me too, which is a plus for his makeup in my eyes. He's also a plus runner, as was mentioned.

I dont know, he just seems to have more of the total package to me.

In regards to how I evaluate prospects - I focus a lot on projectability, ceiling, tools, etc. Actual performance is secondary IMO, when talking about prospects. They need to perform eventually, but I wont sour on a guy simply becuase he had a rough debut(cough.. stubbs... cough) or a year spent learning/growing(see homer bailey in 2005 when everyone wrote him off.... man i can remember doug and I getting into some intense discussions defending him as a prospect around here..).

I also look at makeup of a prospect, as I think this is a highly undervalued and underrated - or overlooked - "tool" of a prospect. I tend to think less of prospects like Delmon Young or Elijah Dukes due to their makeup issues, and I think a guys work ethic and desire is a serious attribute that needs to be weighed when evaluating a prospect. This is one factor I like a lot about Valaika.

I think Valaika deserves to be in the top 10 of this list.. I just dont agree that he should be before Loo. He didn't do anything spectacular IMO, just what he should have done as a college player facing rookie level pitching. If he does it at High A, my hopes will raise. If he does it at AA, then I'll truely be impressed. Until then, I temper my enthusiasm for him, and don't put a lot of weight in his stats, as nice as they are. Anyone remember how big the hype was surrounding Adam Rosales around here? I fear Valakia could be getting the same type of hype. Rosales simply did what he was supposed to do when he was "the next big thing" - some on here rated him above homer bailey on their charts...

I dunno.. its interesting discussion, and thanks for the insight on how you guys judge the talent.. I appreciate it, brings a new perspective to how I look at things.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

I picked Watson. Granted, I think he's deserving, but the bigger issue with me was that I didn't want to see Hamilton as a "top 10" prospect.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

Went with Medlock. Plus stuff, performed at every level, not his fault he got moved to the bullpen. Shafer is next.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

Loo has a few dozen ABs in the GCL, playing against younger competition. His elbow has been problematic for over a year -- he may have played a game or two in the field. Otherwise, he DHd. Valaika was a 3rd round pick who missed a lot of time 2 years ago because of a serious knee injury, so, like Loo, he comes with about 2 years of post high school experience -- and he goes out and wins the Pioneed League MYP playing SS. Just because a guy is pegged by Baseball America uts as a utility guy doesn't mean he can't end up a starter. Someone, I don't remember who, posted some stats showing line drive % for several of the Billings hitters -- Valaika's LD% was so much higher than others that I was shocked, and it went a long way to solidyifying for me his staus as a bona fide prospect. I like that they signed Loo, but he's going to have to show something playing against his age group, including sustained health, before I put him in Valaika's neighborhood.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

Same here. I don't get the Watson picks. He'll spend the next three years trying to catch up to where Shafer is today.

And, once again, Hamilton is not a prospect.

I'm surprised Wirfin Obispo isn't more popular at this moment. Seems to me he's the top "upside" guy on the board.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

Valiaka's D, for what it's worth, graded out well above average at the SS position, if memory serves.

If he plays SS, he's a Top Ten player. If not, he's maybe Top 20.

Re: Who Is RedsZone's #10 Prospect?
 

We normally see eye to eye on things LPC, but I'm not sure how you can give a huge exception to Valaika.

And I dont base my opinion soley on baseball america.. nor do I believe that just becuase thats what he's pegged as, thats what he's destined to be - i.e.. a utility infielder. Scouts get it wrong all the time, often overestimate a players prospects(greg jeffries), and often underestimate a players prospects(albert pujols). But there seems to be a pretty general consensus that Valaika wont stick at SS.

And perhaps I'm just conservative when discussing Reds prospects, as I hate to let homerism get in the way of how i evaluate - so I often try to be more harsh on our own farm - but I still contend Valaika only did what he should have done against inferior competition.

Loo has only played at the JuCo level before, not near the competition Valaika had faced, and therefore I think its apples and oranges when comparing their ability to adjust to their level of play. Again, Valaika did what he should of done - which is good. I just want to see him do it again, before I am completely sold. Loo, on the other hand, while relegated to DH duties, stung the ball to the tune of .372/.413/.581 - even with elbow trouble. Thats pretty impressive to me, and I could argue that Loo perhaps hadn't faced that level of competition regularly before and did better than expected, where as Valaika had.

I don't know, I've made my point... Again, I appreciate everyone's insight, and different perspective - its nice to have some good prospect talk about Reds prospects. I respectfully disagree, but thats what makes the game of following the kids on up the ladder fun.