Drew Stubbs
 

Personally, I have full confidence in him to put it all together. At this point, he's played 54 games, a third of a full major league season. If he were to play 162 games at the same rate, here is how his stats would be in Dayton:

Of course, the strikeouts are insane, but I think in the end, he will be a little better than Mike Cameron. Anyway, what do all of you think? Will he be a bust or not?

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

If he comes to the majors and gets caught stealing 24 times for the sake of 33 SB, he should be shot on sight. I'd say a .773 OPS in A- looks like a defensive replacement/pinch runner at the big league level.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

I agree with you on the stolen bases thing. He had more success last year, so I'm not too concerned about it.

I don't have any evidence to back this up, but for players who have similar abilities, it seems like it takes them longer to develop. However, I might just be making that up.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

I think he will be a worse version of Mike Cameron, like a lesser version of Steve Finley. In my mind he projects to a 4th OF at the major league level, or a starter in a weaker team's outfield. He will never be in the same league as Bruce or Hamilton.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

You are starting with his bat, tell me about his defense, that is where it starts with Drew Stubbs;)

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

I have a bad feeling about this guy.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

I've seen Stubbs play...4-5 times now and I see Szymanski. Stubbs makes contact, but it's not contact with authority. Stubbs is fast, but then everybody playing centerfield is fast at the A level.

I've never seen him drive the ball.
I've never seen him show any kind of arm.
I don't think I've ever seen him take a walk.
Doesn't mean he can't, I just haven't seen it.

Yes, it's a small sample, but it's what I've seen. There are 3 position players at Dayton I think are going to be better than Stubbs.

(Valaika, Turner and Francisco. I think if Francisco can figure out left handed pitching he has a chance to be a valuable property. Other than those three, I'll be surprised if any of the other position players on the roster get past AA.)

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

I think Stubbs will be a very good defensive player in the major leagues. I think his bat will come around just enough to make him an average - above average player. Not an annual All-Star by any means, but he will be a useful major league player. Having said all of that, if someone offers me something useful for him in a trade, I make the deal.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

I agree--people are hunting around in the dark with their hands to find something, ANYTHING for which to praise this guy.

If a guy's going to make it, he's going to need to do better than "speed and defense."

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

I voted but I should have asked for a definition of "a bust" first. The answer to the poll, in my mind, would be different depending on what is meant by someone being a bust. If you're talking about a allstar caliber player (which is what it seems many folks expect from first round draft picks) that's one thing but if you talking about a guy who can put up reasonable numbers and just have a good career as a journeyman MLB player that's a different answer.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

He's playing with turf toe guys come on...geez.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

Well, sure and staying healthy is a skill.

I just haven't seen anything on the field that makes this guy stand out. If you asked me to pick out who the reds big draft pick was after watching these guys on the field, Stubbs wouldn't be very high on my list. That's not what I want out of my top draft pick.

Fwiw, I was VERY impressed with the athleticism of WMP at Dayton. He showed arm and speed and mismanaged routes at Dayton. If I had to choose between the two, WMP was better in center. Stubbs will make fewer mistakes, but he doesn't flash anything like the range or arm the Pena showed. Now, of course Pena never got the chance to correct his mistakes in the minors. I just don't see the same kind of potential in Stubbs.

Look, I hope I'm wrong. I hope the guy turns into and improved version of Eric Davis, but based on what I see on the field, I just don't see that happening.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

Yes he is playing with turf toe and no one outside of the organization has any idea what Stubbs instructions are. This kid will always be looked down upon no matter what he does with his career. If he doesn't make it the bigs hes going to be a bust, if he makes it and is an average player he will be a bust, if he has some up and down season he will be a bust because he was never able to put all his skills to use. I think the only way people will be happy is if he puts up all star numbers year in year out.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

No...the guy is playing in Low A and came from a major college program. He was a top 10 pick. Add that up and he should be tearing the league apart.

Re: Drew Stubbs
 

Actually that's one of his good stats this season. 28 BB so far. Valaika is hitting .047 points higher yet Stubbs has the better OBP.