What went wrong with Todd Coffey?
 

We have had a huge drop off in productivity this year from Todd Coffey:
2006
MLB Innings: 78.0
ERA- 3.58
Whip- 1.44
K/9- 6.92
BB/K- 3.12
HR/9- .81

2007
MLB Innings: 44.2
ERA- 6.04
Whip- 1.75
K/9- 7.25
BB/K- 3.43
HR/9- 2.22

Home/Road ERA
2006: 3.63/3.52
2007: 7.30/4.50

Home/Road HRs allowed:
2006: 3/4
2007: 8/3

Month by month ERA:
2006
April .60
May 1.80
June 5.84
July 5.59
August 5.79
September 2.46
2007
April 6.57
May 3.18
June 3.12
July 8.74
August 27.00(Only 2 MLB games)
September ??

After carefully analyzing his stats, I have one theory that should be pursued. It looks to me like he has gotten too predictable on throwing his first pitch, either by type of pitch or location. Opposing batters are teeing off on his first pitch. They are putting it in play more often, and are hitting .514 this year when they put that first pitch in play. It seems to me that Todd needs to pitch on the corners or miss more on the first pitch, to keep batters off balance.

1st pitches (1st pitch Abs/Balls In Play/Hits/Strikes/Balls)
2005: 181/40/11/114/27
2006: 225/41/8/144/40
2007: 142/35/18/99/19

2005: 22.1% of first pitches put in play(.275 BAA), 63% strikes, and 14.9% balls.
2006: 18.2% of first pitches put in play(.195 BAA), 64% strikes, and 17.8% balls.
2007: 24.6% of first pitches put in play(.514 BAA), 69.7% strikes, and 13.4% balls.

Todd’s weight:
Coffey was interviewed on Reds Reporter back in 2005. He was asked this question: " I read recently in the Dayton Daily News that you've lost something like 80 pounds since being drafted. What was your motivation to lose that weight? Did the Reds encourage you to slim down?"
Coffey: "Yes, I was 305 and I came in the next spring at 212, and now I'm at 230. It was a lot of hard work but worth it. The reds were like "lose the weight or go play football".

2005 Reds Media Guide: 230
2006 Reds Media Guide: 230
2007 Reds Media Guide: 255
Are these still accurate weights? There is this photo floating around.

So there are these three things I notice: first pitches too predictable, too many HRs, and his weight.

Any other ideas? I thik his velocity is still mid 90s, but I don't have any good data on that.

Re: What went wrong with Todd Coffey?
 

Coffey has lost some movement on his pitches, and he was doing fine early in the season. That says either injury or fatigue to me.

Re: What went wrong with Todd Coffey?
 

2 things I have noticed:

1. .357 BAPIP
2. HR/FB going from 10.4% to 27.5%

When dealing with small samples, luck can play a major factor. I'm not suggesting that all of Coffey's struggles have arisen from poor luck, but I think it's a major factor. Those 2 things are unsustainable and not due entirely from poor pitching. With more innings, I would bet that both those rates would come storming down towards league average rates like it basically always does, and Coffey returned closer to his 2006 numbers.

Now there is some thought that players who get plenty of groundballs (like Coffey) should have higher HR/FB rates, but even then his current rate is still completely out of whack. There should only be a more minor disadvantage for Coffey in that area.

Re: What went wrong with Todd Coffey?
 

This is only my opinion and it could be way wrong, but I've noticed that Coffey, even last year, did better with regular work. Pitch a couple days skip a day or two, pitch a couple more. Narron would pitch him 4 or 5 days in a row and then leave him sit for a week and I think both the overwork and the periods of idleness had a negative impact on his performance. After some repeated poundings brought on by poor usage patterns, it got in his head IMO.

Re: What went wrong with Todd Coffey?
 

0 days rest: 14 IPs, 4.50 ERA, 4 HRs
1 day rest: 18.2 IPs, 6.75 ERA, 5 HRs
2 days rest: 7.2 IPs, 5.87 ERA, 1 HR
3-5 days rest: .2 IP, 40.50 ERA, 1 HR
6+ days rest: 3.2 IPs, 2.46 ERA, 0 HR


BTW, all of these stats are from the ESPN player cards. For Todd Coffey, his stats are located HERE.

Re: What went wrong with Todd Coffey?
 

Interesting. This probably means my observation was wrong, but there came a point where it didn't matter (the it got in his head portion of my theory) and he got pounded no matter what.

Any way to see what these looked like at the end of May?

Re: What went wrong with Todd Coffey?
 

I'm not a pitching coach, or a major league pitcher, and I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I have noticed two things about Todd Coffey during his struggles:

1. Every pitch seems to be the same speed. He throws very hard, still(94-95 sometimes), but when they know what's coming... Coffey needs a pitch to keep hitters off balance. I also agree it seems as if he's lost some movement.

2. He's wild, in the zone. He's been missing this year, right over the heart of the plate. When you put 1 and 2 together, it might explain why guys were teeing off on the first pitch he threw, very often. Now, it could very well be that he's throwing it where he always did in the zone, and the lack of movement is killing him.

IMO, Gary Majewski was suffering form very similar symptoms (after he had rehabbed from his injury). Maj seems like he's showing signs of his old self.

I have high hopes that Coffey will be back to his old 2006 self next year. He's got a fine arm, and it seems like he's a great guy- an easy fellow for me to root for. Having him back to his 2006 form would make this a much deeper bullpen.