Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
Doug, last year the Reds had 6 pitchers with ERAs better than 4.9 -- who pitched a total of 626 innings.
You project that this year the Reds will have 10 pitchers with ERAs better than 4.9 -- and you project them to pitch 1242 innings, just about double.
That would be a remarkable improvement.
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Originally Posted by
Kc61
Doug, last year the Reds had 6 pitchers with ERAs better than 4.9 -- who pitched a total of 626 innings.
You project that this year the Reds will have 10 pitchers with ERAs better than 4.9 -- and you project them to pitch 1242 innings, just about double.
That would be a remarkable improvement.
Its going to come from the starting pitching mostly, who I feel (and others) are going to break out so to say.
The amount of pitching talent that we are going into the year with compared to previous years, well.... its not even close.
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
Its going to come from the starting pitching mostly, who I feel (and others) are going to break out so to say.
The amount of pitching talent that we are going into the year with compared to previous years, well.... its not even close.
And do I understand that, with 210 hits, you are projecting Belisle's WHIP to be 1.39 rather than 1.45?
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Originally Posted by
Kc61
And do I understand that, with 210 hits, you are projecting Belisle's WHIP to be 1.39 rather than 1.45?
Yes, I fixed that and the new numbers are up with Belisles being fixed.
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Originally Posted by
dougdirt
Yes, I fixed that and the new numbers are up with Belisles being fixed.
My rule of thumb is that a starter shouldn't have a WHIP above 1.40. And a reliever shouldn't have a WHIP above 1.30. To me these ratios roughly tend to correspond with success.
If Belisle can achieve a 1.39 WHIP pitching 185 innings, he will have shown significant improvement, whether by increased skill or by luck and his ERA should come down well below 5. Hopefully you are right.
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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I have a little formula that I use to gauge future projections of my own that I will tweak every now and again when the numbers don't really match up with what my brain thinks they will bare out to be.
There's just so many things wrong with this statement.
I understand trial and error, and testing a hypothesis (in this case, projections), but tweaking a formula/equation to yield the results you want/think should happen is just bad statistics/gathering of information.
Sometimes we don't like the results we get from a formula/equation, but the results are accurate or realistic. We just have to accept that, and move on. Modifying the formula/equation to favor your desired results is... well.... wow.
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
Doug, did you run these projections last year? If you have, would you mind sharing them?
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Modifying the formula/equation to favor your desired results is... well.... wow.
Dare I say .... It's MAGIC!!!
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Originally Posted by
Highlifeman21
There's just so many things wrong with this statement.
I understand trial and error, and testing a hypothesis (in this case, projections), but tweaking a formula/equation to yield the results you want/think should happen is just bad statistics/gathering of information.
Sometimes we don't like the results we get from a formula/equation, but the results are accurate or realistic. We just have to accept that, and move on. Modifying the formula/equation to favor your desired results is... well.... wow.
Well when you run statistical formula's they don't take into account things such as injuries, new playing time, new ballparks (sometimes although you can correct that to a point) or even someone having a poor first half and coming on very strong in the second half to only yield a 'meh' type season. There are always tweaks that need to be made based on those types of situations.
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
Doug, did you run these projections last year? If you have, would you mind sharing them?
I did, but I had them on my old hard drive that went kapoot and I can't track them down online anywhere....
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Originally Posted by
dougdirt
Well when you run statistical formula's they don't take into account things such as injuries, new playing time, new ballparks (sometimes although you can correct that to a point) or even someone having a poor first half and coming on very strong in the second half to only yield a 'meh' type season. There are always tweaks that need to be made based on those types of situations.
I'm curious about how you derived your projections. What assumptions/methodology did ya use?
I'll take my answer over the air. :beerme:
BTW, your minor league site seems to be down.
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
My server is not too happy with me right now... so here is the text version.
Code:
Player AB H HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
Adam Dunn 570 145 38 0.254 .370 .504 .874
Ken Griffey Jr 440 121 26 0.275 .359 .498 .857
Jay Bruce 450 122 23 0.271 .330 .491 .821
Norris Hopper 250 78 0 0.312 .355 .352 .707
Ryan Freel 230 61 3 0.265 .340 .387 .727
Joey Votto 475 140 26 0.295 .360 .512 .872
B Phillips 595 164 24 0.276 .335 .451 .786
Alex Gonzalez 515 140 19 0.272 .325 .446 .771
Ed Encarnacion 540 157 26 0.291 .365 .498 .863
Jeff Keppinger 380 120 9 0.316 .360 .455 .815
Scott Hatteberg 120 33 3 0.275 .345 .417 .762
David Ross 350 86 19 0.246 .322 .460 .782
Javier Valentin 265 71 9 0.268 .330 .423 .753
Player IP H BB K HR ERA WHIP
Aaron Harang 230 215 52 210 27 3.64 1.16
Bronson Arroyo 210 228 55 145 30 4.20 1.35
Matt Belisle 185 210 48 132 27 4.57 1.39
Edinson Volquez 180 178 75 162 24 4.45 1.40
Homer Bailey 140 124 53 120 17 4.31 1.26
Johnny Cueto 35 34 10 27 6 4.63 1.25
Jeremy Affeldt 85 90 37 68 11 4.55 1.49
Jared Burton 68 57 30 63 5 3.70 1.28
David Weathers 75 69 30 50 9 4.08 1.32
Fra Cordero 75 65 27 84 7 3.24 1.23
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Originally Posted by
jojo
I'm curious about how you derived your projections. What assumptions/methodology did ya use?
I'll take my answer over the air. :beerme:
BTW, your minor league site seems to be down.
Its based around past performance, age, trends, upside, first half versus second half performances as well as special tweaking by me in cases like Bailey with the injuries, Edwin with Narron jerking him around big time, Gonzo and his family situations.
As for my site.... its causing me a headache today... 'they are working on it and appreciate my patience'. So far in my three weeks with the company, I am not to thrilled with their reliability.
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
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Originally Posted by
dougdirt
As for Bailey's numbers as if they are some crazy historical outlier or something.
Here are some similar numbers that I happened to find:
Code:
Player IP H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP
Homer Bailey 140 7.97 3.41 7.71 1.09 4.31 1.26
Jerermy Affeldt 126 9 2.71 6.79 0.86 3.93 1.30
Josh Beckett 142 8.37 3.55 9.63 0.57 3.04 1.32
Roy Halladay 133 9.47 2.64 6.43 0.88 4.20 1.35
Jerome Williams 131 7.97 3.37 6.04 0.69 3.30 1.26
Brad Penny 143 8.18 2.83 6.98 0.76 3.15 1.22
Kerry Wood 140.1 8.14 3.27 9.24 1.03 3.72 1.27
Those were just in a sampling between 2003 and 2004. Are those guys numbers out of whack too?
Well, first you have to exclude the two guys with K rates above 9.00 (Beckett and Wood) as at that level, it's more reasonable to expect H/9 rates below 8.00 or 9.00. I already noted that so I'm not sure why you'd include them.
Then we've got one guy (Halladay) who doesn't fit the sample at all with a H/9 rate of 9.47. He's gone too. So is Affeldt because we're need to be looking at a sample of 8.00 H/9 or less. Only Jerome Williams actually fits that profile (albeit with a lower K rate), but for fun let's take a look at Brad Penny as well:
2004 Jerome Williams: .279 BABIP
2004 Brad Penny (FLA): .296 BABIP
The low Hit/9 rates for both pitchers are a combination of BABIP luck and HR rates below 1.00. You don't expect Bailey's HR rate to be below 1.00, so the only way he can produce the Hit rate you expect with those peripherals is BABIP luck with a sub-par defense behind him.
So yeah, when you see a guy with a Hit/9 rate at or under 8.00 who also boast a HR/9 rate above 1.00 and a K/9 rate below 8.00, you can pretty much guarantee he's an outlier driven by a lower than average BABIP.
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Bailey has far and away the higher ERA of the bunch, his HR rate is the highest as well, but his k rate is third highest and walk rate is pretty in line with the others while his hit rate it pretty close with most of the group.
Nope. I'm sure you didn't mean to do it, but the only way Bailey is likely to produce the ERA you expect with those peripherals is if he's BABIP-lucky.
There's a better way to do this, doug. And it means starting with the "trifecta" comps (HR/9, K/9, BB/9) and then reverse-engineering the projections to fit by normalizing for league, park, and defense. You also have to exclude Hits/9 and WHIP as starting points as they'd only be a result of such an endeavor rather than a driver of anything.
Oh, and much as it may pain you to hear this, if a pitcher has a history of high BB/9 rates, an analysis will suffer unless you're actually pessimistic about that- especially for young pitchers with a history of high BB rates during their first long-term exposure in the Show. Considering Bailey's 2007 BB rate issues and a career MiLB 4.23 BB/9 rate, a projection of 4.50 BB/9 for 2008 would be a lot more acceptable from a realism standpoint than your expectation of an evolutionary leap forward.