Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Why?
1. His numbers at a glance ( 21 homers & 23 SB ) look better than his true numbers ( OPS+ of 88, 105 & 93 the last 3 seasons and inability to hit RHP )
He is really a guy who should hit 6th or 7th and we have a lot of these guys already.
2. He could be attractive to teams. I could envision him being part of a Matt Holliday trade.
3. We have oodles of players whose best position is 2B - Kep, Richar, Valaika.
Rosales could play here. Heck we could even bring back Hairston.
4. He was not on Walt's untouchable list.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
I wouldn't trade BP unless the return was too much to pass up. He's signed at a reasonable value and he's the best defender the Reds have. Trading the plus players who are signed to reasonable contrace isn't the way to get better.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
I am definitely of the opinion that Brandon is overvalued given his counting stats. He is a good defender, but should be dealt if the Reds can get a good return. The fact that he is cheap right now should actually help them to do that. I suppose though that they'd then have to find a replacement MI with a good glove--not something there is a surplus of in the system right now.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MWM
I wouldn't trade BP unless the return was too much to pass up. He's signed at a reasonable value and he's the best defender the Reds have. Trading the plus players who are signed to reasonable contrace isn't the way to get better.
Theres the rub. Is he really a 'plus player'? Yes he can pick it at 2B but his bat isn't that great. Since we have oodles of other options for 2B I think he will get shopped this offseason to fill the holes we have. Now if the Reds moved him to SS that would be another issue but the Reds have shown no signs of wanting him to play SS.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MWM
I wouldn't trade BP unless the return was too much to pass up. He's signed at a reasonable value and he's the best defender the Reds have. Trading the plus players who are signed to reasonable contrace isn't the way to get better.
Agreed. It would take a huge return for me to deal Phillips.
Phillips is a good player but he's not a cleanup hitter. Jerry Narron and now Dusty Baker are handling him wrong by continuing to bat him cleanup on a nightly basis. IMO he would be better suited for either lead off where maybe he would learn to lay off more pitches and take a walk, or sixth where his solid power and low OBP would be more effective. When he's hitting cleanup it seems like he tries to hit everything out of the park, and he's just not that type of hitter.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Will M
Theres the rub. Is he really a 'plus player'? Yes he can pick it at 2B but his bat isn't that great. Since we have oodles of other options for 2B I think he will get shopped this offseason to fill the holes we have. Now if the Reds moved him to SS that would be another issue but the Reds have shown no signs of wanting him to play SS.
I'm all for shopping him, but it would take a lot for me to pat with him. I think he's definitely a plus player. He does just about everthing well but take walks. He's fast, has some pop, and plays superb defense. I wouldn't undersell his defense. I would feel differently if he had a huge contract, but he doesn't. He's set to make $11.5MM over the next two seasons. He's the type of guy you keep.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Will M
Is he really a 'plus player'?
yes
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Phillips is owed the following:
2009: $4,75 mm
2010 $6,75 mm
2011: $11 mm
2012: $11 mm w $ 1mm buyout.
The "near" years look reasonable, but thereafter, not so much. Since you can't take only "part" of the contract, BP is only really tradeable now. If doesn't put up a stellar 2009 or 2010...he becomes a liability.
Walt Jocketty has had a revolving door of cheap 2B in Stlouis over the last decade. It worked.
I say trade him. 2B is hole that's not hard to fill.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Trading Phillips is the kind of move that would infuriate the average fan, but personally I'd be all for it if the return is right. His offensive game is significantly overrated thanks to his low OBP, massive platoon split, and risky base-running. Obviously he's an asset to the team, but I think we could get even more value in return and we have significant organization depth at 2B.
The other piece of this equation:
08:$2.75M
09:$4.75M
10:$6.75M
11:$11M
12:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
Plus incentives. BP is no longer "cheap". He's still a bargain for 2 years, is becoming an increasing part of the payroll base.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Quote:
Walt Jocketty has had a revolving door of cheap 2B in Stlouis over the last decade.
Very true. To me, it was a distinguishing trait of his roster building.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Yeah, I'd be for shopping him for good equivalent value.
I think the worst thing that happened to BP was his 30/30 season last year. It caused him to consistently swing from the heels and to take unnecessary chances on the basepaths.
Gaudy stats, but he'd be better off being more patient at the plate, making better contact, get more doubles but less HRs, and pick his spots for SBs and baserunning.
But I think the BP we see is the player he always will be.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Being that I don't fall in either the "Love Brandon" or the "Hate Brandon" camp...this is what strikes me.
Next 2 years...very reasonable contract.
Following 2 years...unreasonable contract.
So what is one to do. I'd put his name out there this year, looking to be overwhelmed. If there are no takers, shop him hard next year after the season, allowing the buyer to get him for a cheap 2010, but making his 2011/12 years their problem contract-wise.
Unfortunately...in my opinon this is the info we have now. Brandon Phillips was given the chance to show he could be a good 4 hitter this year, but he just isn't one. I don't knock him for that, its just what he is. GG defense. A fun player to watch. Not worth over 10 million a year though.
Backloaded contracts in MLB are rarely fun to watch play out.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Quote:
Originally Posted by
oneupper
Walt Jocketty has had a revolving door of cheap 2B in Stlouis over the last decade. It worked.
I say trade him. 2B is hole that's not hard to fill.
Walt also values defense more than the average GM. I say BP stays
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
This team plays awful defense. Phillips is one of the few guys who actually plays very good defense. He's not the guy to move right now (barring a whopping offer of course). As far as the other options, I've really grown weary of guys who "could" play at positions. There's a whole roster full of guys who "could" play 2B, or "could" play SS, or "could" play in the OF. The problem is they can't play them well. Just because someone can stand between second and third it doesn't make them a SS. I want players who can actually play the position, instead of settling for guys who "could", that's what's led to the awful defense they have now.
Re: Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MWM
I'm all for shopping him, but it would take a lot for me to pat with him. I think he's definitely a plus player. He does just about everthing well but take walks. He's fast, has some pop, and plays superb defense. I wouldn't undersell his defense. I would feel differently if he had a huge contract, but he doesn't. He's set to make $11.5MM over the next two seasons. He's the type of guy you keep.
If that's the way you feel then you ought to be for getting rid of him right now. As several have stated, he is due big money in future years. So if money is a concern (and with this team it should be) then the time to move him is now.
I don't sense the front office wanting to move him but if they did I'd understand why
