2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Never too early in the offseason to start looking at these right?
These are over on RedReporter.com
Code:
Hitter Age G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI RC RC27 BB SO SB CS Avg OBP Slg OPS
Bruce,Jay 22 159 587 174 30 4 35 94 90 109 6.75 46 145 12 7 .296 .351 .540 .891
Dickerson,Chris 27 150 564 151 28 7 21 93 74 94 5.74 80 176 37 13 .268 .360 .454 .814
Encarnacion,Edwin 26 148 539 150 37 1 25 83 85 91 6.05 56 95 4 2 .278 .356 .490 .846
Freel,Ryan 33 100 327 87 17 2 3 48 21 40 4.19 33 56 19 8 .266 .342 .358 .700
Hairston,Jerry 33 93 220 58 14 1 4 31 22 27 4.23 18 32 8 4 .264 .333 .391 .724
Hanigan,Ryan 28 33 102 28 5 0 2 12 10 14 4.92 12 14 0 0 .275 .357 .382 .739
Keppinger,Jeff 29 117 439 134 24 2 5 53 43 63 5.34 35 23 3 2 .305 .359 .403 .762
Phillips,Brandon 28 154 601 158 30 4 21 84 76 80 4.60 39 101 22 9 .263 .313 .431 .744
Votto,Joey 25 157 586 180 40 2 30 87 102 120 7.55 74 111 13 7 .307 .386 .536 .922
Pitcher Age G GS IP H HR BB SO HB W L Pct Sv BR/9 ERA
Affeldt,Jeremy 30 65 0 77 79 8 34 59 3 4 5 .444 0 13.6 4.39
Arroyo,Bronson 32 32 32 212 222 27 64 152 10 11 12 .478 0 12.6 4.25
Bray,Bill 26 61 0 42 43 4 17 46 1 2 2 .500 0 13.1 4.26
Burton,Jared 28 42 0 45 44 4 20 40 2 2 3 .400 0 13.2 4.11
Cordero,Francisco 34 67 0 68 60 5 29 77 2 4 3 .571 34 12.0 3.53
Cueto,Johnny 23 28 28 154 155 24 52 151 14 8 10 .444 0 12.9 4.56
Harang,Aaron 31 29 29 184 192 25 50 155 5 10 10 .500 0 12.1 4.11
Lincoln,Mike 34 64 0 63 63 8 22 48 2 3 4 .429 0 12.4 4.13
Majewski,Gary 29 44 0 45 55 4 17 28 3 2 3 .400 0 15.0 5.28
Masset,Nick 27 35 0 57 71 6 25 40 3 2 4 .333 0 15.6 5.82
Owings,Micah 26 25 21 118 124 13 43 91 11 6 7 .462 0 13.6 4.52
Volquez,Edinson 25 30 30 192 176 20 95 191 10 11 11 .500 0 13.2 4.08
Weathers,David 39 70 0 71 68 7 30 50 3 4 4 .500 0 12.8 4.00
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Wow. James thinks Dickerson is going to go wild! If that's true, the Reds definitely have their CF situation solved. Not a bad sophomore season for Bruce and Votto either.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
I'd take those lines from Dickerson in a heartbeat. 21 HR's and a .360 OBP? Give me that. I liked Hanigan's rate stats until I saw just 102 at-bats.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Doesn't look like he is too fond of the Reds pitching.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.
The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Johnny Footstool
Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.
The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.
Or come from pitchers not yet on the team.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Johnny Footstool
Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.
The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.
Dirigible!:laugh::laugh:
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
I'm surprised by the optimism of the offense, but like bucksfan2 said, he doesn't seem to optimistic about the pitching. Mike Lincoln with the third-best WHIP on the staff? Yikes.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
If Joey Votto puts up those numbers he better get some MVP consideration.
sorry, I meant "When".
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Wow, he's projection huge seasons from the young hitters. A .891 OPS for Bruce, .814 from Dickerson with 21 homers and 37 stolen bases, and a .922 OPS from Votto.
But I also think he sells the pitching short. I think he's right on with Arroyo but off on the others. That's a solid season from Harang but I expect him to return to his 2005-2007 form. While I don't expect Cueto to develop into an ace just yet, I do think he'll take a step forward next season with at least a league average or better ERA and a strikeout per inning. He's also got Volquez taking a step back. I don't see that happening. Volquez's curveball seemed to improve throughout the season, plus he's now got a full season under his belt...I think he'll be as good, if not better than he was in 2008. As for the bullpen projections, I don't see Majewski and Lincoln on the 2009 team, especially Majewski. Burton has a 2.92 ERA in 101.2 career IP, there's no reason he can't repeat that. Affeldt should be better too.
I like the hitting projections but I think he's far off on the pitching projections.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
I think it's obvious that he's putting a lot of weight on the ballpark.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Quote:
Originally Posted by
wheels
Dirigible!:laugh::laugh:
Better be careful they are making a comeback.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/05/bu...dirigible.html
Not much love for the pitchers. If Dickerson puts up those numbers it should silence those who are calling for the return of C Patt for CF and leadoff. :)
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
If those pitching projects are on, the Reds should fully expect to finish last, maybe 2nd to last at best in the division.
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Quote:
Originally Posted by
klw
Not much love for the pitchers. If Dickerson puts up those numbers it should silence those who are calling for the return of C Patt for CF and leadoff. :)
Who
in their
right
mind...
Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds
Bronson Arroyo - 205 IP, 4.20-4.35 ERA, 160 K
Johnny Cueto - 180 IP, 4.40 ERA, 175 K
Aaron Harang - 210 IP, 3.85 ERA, 180 K
Edinson Volquez -200 IP, 2.75-3.20 ERA, 215 K
That's along the lines of what I expect from our four rotation locks. That's assuming the Reds improve their defense. I went with a safe projection on Cueto, I think he could do much better than that but he's still young and inexperienced and will battle some ups and downs.
