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Peter Abraham-
Adam Dunn: There is a distinct lack of buzz around Dunn for some reason. The statheads love him because he’s a sure thing every year. You live with the strikeouts but he gets on base and hits home runs. The baseball guys hate him because he has no position and doesn’t seem overly interested. Washington, a dying franchise already, needs a spark. Prediction: Nationals for three years and $36 million.
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Originally Posted by Handofdeath
Comical considering he made $13 million this past season.
I think Dunn's reputation of having a lack of interest in baseball has caused him this problem.
really? maybe it's just that he's not as good as you think he is, and GM's that have to put their careers on the line aren't willing to sign him.Quote:
Originally Posted by ChatterRed
?:eek: Dunn is pretty darn good. He has a Career OPS of .899, not too many hitters in th majors right now can say that.Quote:
Originally Posted by REDblooded
I don't think that anyone on this board is saying that Dunn is not good, in fact nearly all would agree that he is one of the most productive players in the league.Quote:
Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07
But the real argument is how good is he? And that is what REDblooded was saying, that Dunn is not as good as some people think.
This has been beaten to death on this board, but things are slow, so I will bring up the main points again.
1) His defense. He has gotten better, but for most of his career Dunn was a butcher in left. Now he just is not very good, which is about average for left fielders.
It is very difficult to know exactly how many missed plays Dunn is responsible for, but I would say that even now, he is probably worth around one a week, which is about 20-25 a season. Even at 20 missed plays, if they are worth .8 runs each according to Tango
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...worth_08_runs/
then Dunn's defense costs the team around 15 runs a season. That's a big chunk. Even if it is just 10, that knocks him a notch in terms of his overall level of production he provides. He moves from a 4 win player to 3.5 or maybe even a 3 win player.
2) Not all OPS are equal. Dunn's high OPS is due to a large number of walks. While walks are great, they are not as valuable as hits. Most Saberheads agree that a walk is worth around 2/3 of a hit in terms of run production. So compare Dunn to Aramis Ramirez, who had a similar OPS last year, .898, but had 48 less walks and 38 more hits. That is about 12-15 more runs, with an almost identical OPS.
So just between his defense and high walk instead of hit total, Dunn is worth about 20-30 runs less than a player with the same OPS, but with better defense and a better BA.
Now to be honest, I like Dunn a lot, and think that if the Reds could sign him to a two year $25M, that would be great. But I think he will get at least 4 years, and that alone makes him not worth it. The Reds have too many good young hitters coming up. I think most of the people against signing Dunn would like him on the team, just not at his current market value.
Adam Dunn is a very good 6th place hitter on an AL team as a DH or as a left fielder for a team who has the willingness to accept the 3-4 lost games per season his defense generates. If you are a team who already has the horses to win and needs a big bat, he's a good investment. If you are counting on him being the acquisition that carries you to the postseason, he's not that. His "Big Donkey", "aw shucks" reputation doesn't help him, even if its not a fair portrayal.
I could see a Detroit eating Sheffields salary and offering Dunn a 1 year $13M deal and him accepting it.
He is a very good player but not a superstar. Thats the simplest way to sum it up.
I think that is the best way to put it.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayBruce32
Here.....let me try and put it in simpler terms.......Adam Dunn is a.........
Dunn is an elite player who is getting a bad rap by people who do not understand math. He is the kind of player to build championship teams around and the Reds will be cursed for trading him.
ooooooooooo the curse of the Donkey
Dunn is a good player. He is not elite and I think most people know that.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsfanmia
P.S. I understand Math just fine.
1+1= 6 see:)
I'll settle for this.:) I recall hearing for the last couple of years that Dunn was one of the primary reasons the Red's didn't win. If the big slam now is that he's merely very good, I'd say that's a lot of progress.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayBruce32
Well I was very bad at math. Once in 9th grade, my math teacher gave me an F- on math test, since she said it wasn't fair to lump me in with the students who failed normally.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsfanmia
Anyway, I still love stats, love Bill James and Sabermetrics, but I still believe that there is more to understanding baseball than math. I think the opposite of what Law said is true. Dunn is overvalued by those who understand math and nothing else.
i agree with 757.. some rely on the math to tell them things they like.. but simple things like watching the game and seeing how many fly balls he doesn't get to aren't really accounted for.. since range and things like that also rely on a pitcher being a fly ball pitcher..