Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
Hard to argue with this opinion from Joe Veno.
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Nothing new to the Sabermetric world…
But Dusty Baker continues to give extra At Bats to players undeserving of receiving them.
His most common lineup, and the one featured of late, has Willy Taveras batting leadoff, with Jerry Hairston in the two-hole.
Taveras has an OPS+ of 76. And that is no fluke. Last season it was 56, and the season before it was 89. His OBP is a league-average .333 (in a hitters park), but the power is abysmal. As I said, his OBP is average, and it sits at .333. Well, his Slugging% is literally 12 percentage points higher than that. Yes, it’s .345. And yes, he it the leadoff hitter.
Hairston is at least closer to decent, with an OPS+ of 96. But his OBP is .314, and just last season it was .384. However, the two previous seasons it fell below the horrible .300 mark. So the power is there, but does one really want someone making outs that often when there has to be a better option?
Generally speaking, black holes come at the bottom of lineups. But not with Dusty Baker. He wants to get those guys out of the way as many times as possible and let better hitters, well, hit.
If Dusty’s philosophy is save the best for last, then maybe this makes a little sense.
The 25-20 record is going to allow Baker to do what he wants with this team, as no one more knowledgeable is going to interfere with winning. But the team’s offense has been atrocious thus far, with two hitters above-average, and the rest below.
The pitching has been very good, and that is why the Reds are virtually a team of .500 quality so far. That rotation is very legit. However, Dusty is screwing with at least part of the equation by insisting that bad hitters bat at the top of the order.
But Willy Taveras IS seeing more pitches this season…
And that still isn’t close to being enough.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
But they're, like, fast, dude. They gotta hit at the top of the order! That's where the fast guys hit!
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
The problem is, who the heck else do you bat leadoff? This guy acts like we have some magical bat there sitting there in wait that Dusty has to bat leadoff. Taveras is still listed as the 4th best starter in OBP, and other ones besides Votto and Hernandez aren't any better.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
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Originally Posted by
LouisvilleCARDS
The problem is, who the heck else do you bat leadoff?
Dickerson is the best OBP guy not named Votto in the lineup.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
You think dickerson should be batting lead off and you sit Taveras. The guy who WHEN HE DOES GET ON BASE> Almost everytime makes something happen.
What reds fan in here doesnt get thrilled when Will T gets on base with no outs. He's a threat. He needs to be at the top of the lineup and get the AB's. Willy T is another guy that is slumping right now. But 30 AB's ago he was doing very well.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
Hes a threat then doesnt steal
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
It is a gross misuse of statistics to talk about a leadoff hitter's OPS+. I guess when you run out of things to say, you can always go back to the Dusty is a dinosaur well.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
I dont agree with the line ups dusty throws out there at times but come on! Willy is the only guy on the roster who should be hitting leadoff. Who could bat 2? Jhj at this point in time is the only guy at this time. You arent going to put Brue, Votto, Nix, Gomes, Hernandez there. Gonzo doesnt fit the bill even at 7 or 8. So who else?
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
Dickerson is probably best option but he isn't quite ready. I have no problem with Hairston right now. Play him until he cools off. No problem in my view.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
Dusty Baker isn't wasting ANY at-bats.
April and May are the time a manager does what he gets paid to do:
...........set up the months of June, July, August, and September by distributing playing time in a manner that benefits everyone on the ballclub both collectively and individually.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
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Originally Posted by
jfar23
Dickerson is probably best option but he isn't quite ready. I have no problem with Hairston right now. Play him until he cools off. No problem in my view.
I would say Dickerson would be one of the worst options. Yeah he has a solid OBP and some speed, but he puts no fear into the pitchers and strikes out a TON. Pitchers have a ton of confidence when facing him because they know he gets himself out a lot. Yeah I said it, Wily T actually puts fear into the pitchers, not from a power perspective but the pitching and defense wants him off base as much as possible. Think back to how many games this year Wily T gets on to lead off the game and turns around to score the first run and we win. Not to mention, how much pitchers change their delivery and pitches due to Wily on first base.
These saber nerds who have quantified baseball should get rid of their pocket protectors and actually try playing the game. They need to learn how to mix numbers and philosophies a bit more.
It seems to me Wily and Hairston have been making it happen at the top of the order just from watching the games. I'll go ahead and give Dusty the benefit of the doubt on this topic.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
I kind of agree with this, but at the same time you play the cards you have with the hand you're dealt. Sure Dusty no doubt has some say in who's on the roster. He made a remark before the season began I believe saying this kind of team is the kind of team he's always wanted to have. Yes, he makes the lineups... but notice this guy doesn't offer any viable alternatives or solutions either. Granted, that's not his job. He is not employed by the Reds and has no real interest either way in their success or failure.
But, the thing is, who else are you going to play there? Someone mentioned Dickerson, who would be a possibility perhaps. But we still don't know if he's anything more than a fourth outfielder and platoon player. Plus, Nix has passed him up for now, and rightfully so based on performance so far.
I don't know that I see any viable alternatives. Dickerson could bat first or second if you want a guy who can generate a good OBP. But again who's he going to play in front of? Not Nix, and not Bruce... Taveras or platoon with Taveras...maybe
For better or worse, Encarnacion will no doubt be the third baseman again once he's back and healthy. Phillips will be back as the second baseman. Which means Hairston goes back to being a super sub and occasional starter again... maybe back to at least a semi-platoon in LF.
It's a fair point, but it totally ignores the fact that Hairston would not even be in the everyday lineup, let alone batting second, if Encarnacion and Phillips were both playing right now.
I'll never be a huge Dusty fan by any means. Heck, we know Taveras will always bat leadoff in all likelihood, and we know that there's a good chance whenever he's in there Hairston will bat second. But completely loading the bottom of the lineup with outs isn't a great strategy either. Would this really scare many pitchers?
6. Hairston
7. Gonzalez
8. Taveras
9. Pitcher (who is not Owings)
There's just several guys on this team who aren't great or disciplined hitters. That's just the way it is right now. But the offense doesn't have to be a juggernaut. If it can hover somewhere around average, maybe on the plus side of average, they'll be alright as long as the pitching holds up.
Playoff team alright? Maybe, maybe not. World Series team alright would be pretty danged remarkable. But I'd be relatively happy with say 86-87 wins and an "almost playoff appearance"... disappointed sure, but it's a step in the right direction that hopefully could be built upon.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
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Originally Posted by
Redeye fly
I kind of agree with this, but at the same time you play the cards you have with the hand you're dealt. Sure Dusty no doubt has some say in who's on the roster. He made a remark before the season began I believe saying this kind of team is the kind of team he's always wanted to have. Yes, he makes the lineups... but notice this guy doesn't offer any viable alternatives or solutions either. Granted, that's not his job. He is not employed by the Reds and has no real interest either way in their success or failure.
But, the thing is, who else are you going to play there? Someone mentioned Dickerson, who would be a possibility perhaps. But we still don't know if he's anything more than a fourth outfielder and platoon player. Plus, Nix has passed him up for now, and rightfully so based on performance so far.
I don't know that I see any viable alternatives. Dickerson could bat first or second if you want a guy who can generate a good OBP. But again who's he going to play in front of? Not Nix, and not Bruce... Taveras or platoon with Taveras...maybe
For better or worse, Encarnacion will no doubt be the third baseman again once he's back and healthy. Phillips will be back as the second baseman. Which means Hairston goes back to being a super sub and occasional starter again... maybe back to at least a semi-platoon in LF.
It's a fair point, but it totally ignores the fact that Hairston would not even be in the everyday lineup, let alone batting second, if Encarnacion and Phillips were both playing right now.
I'll never be a huge Dusty fan by any means. Heck, we know Taveras will always bat leadoff in all likelihood, and we know that there's a good chance whenever he's in there Hairston will bat second. But completely loading the bottom of the lineup with outs isn't a great strategy either. Would this really scare many pitchers?
6. Hairston
7. Gonzalez
8. Taveras
9. Pitcher (who is not Owings)
There's just several guys on this team who aren't great or disciplined hitters. That's just the way it is right now. But the offense doesn't have to be a juggernaut. If it can hover somewhere around average, maybe on the plus side of average, they'll be alright as long as the pitching holds up.
Playoff team alright? Maybe, maybe not. World Series team alright would be pretty danged remarkable. But I'd be relatively happy with say 86-87 wins and an "almost playoff appearance"... disappointed sure, but it's a step in the right direction that hopefully could be built upon.
Great Post. Taveras has value as a leadoff hitter doing what he does, but place him anywhere else in the order and he has basically no value. Hairston has done a great job in the 2 hole thus far when it comes to laying down bunts getting hits and getting on when Taveras doesn't. All in all, I would say this lineup is clicking for now. And the old saying says "If it ain't broke don't fix it."
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
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Originally Posted by
Griffey012
[PHP]I would say Dickerson would be one of the worst options. Yeah he has a solid OBP and some speed, but he puts no fear into the pitchers and strikes out a TON. Pitchers have a ton of confidence when facing him because they know he gets himself out a lot. Yeah I said it, Wily T actually puts fear into the pitchers, not from a power perspective but the pitching and defense wants him off base as much as possible.[/PHP] Think back to how many games this year Wily T gets on to lead off the game and turns around to score the first run and we win. Not to mention, how much pitchers change their delivery and pitches due to Wily on first base.
These saber nerds who have quantified baseball should get rid of their pocket protectors and actually try playing the game. They need to learn how to mix numbers and philosophies a bit more.
It seems to me Wily and Hairston have been making it happen at the top of the order just from watching the games. I'll go ahead and give Dusty the benefit of the doubt on this topic.
Dickerson is no option. He's a marginal MLB player.
Re: Dusty Baker wasting AB’s on below-average hitters.
That's true. Maybe the only other place Taveras could serve a purpose is 8th. If he gets on base, the pitcher bunts him to second, and then maybe he steals third. But that's really all conditional on the pitcher getting the bunt down and Taveras constantly trying to create havoc on the basepaths, which he's actually been reluctant to do at times. But if you're going to play him you pretty much have to bat him first or 8th, because he doesn't have the power to serve any purpose anywhere else. Plus, if he bats eighth, you're automatically giving up an out to advance him on the base paths, which you don't necessarily have to do if you have an actual hitter behind him.
Plus, a week or two ago Willy was on fire and OBP'ing over .350. I think most everyone saw it as a temporary hot streak. But nonetheless it's rather convenient to make the point now that he's hit a cold streak.
The bottom line is why I see plenty of intriguing value in some sabremetric concepts, it's going to take another generation or two of managers probably to ever see it take hold all over baseball.
Until then, most teams and managers will probably bat their fastest guy at the top of the order, regardless of OBP.
If Taveras gets on base enough, it's not that bad. Hairston is a fairly competent bunter, with a complete notable exceptions. Beyond that, if he's going to show a little bit more power this year, that's a bit of plus, as a double will almost certainly score Taveras from first a good bit of the time.
Again, if the offense can score 4 or 5 runs in a game you've got to think they're going to be there with a very real chance to win a lot of those games.
