2011 Louisville Bats
 

Even if you're pessimistic about the Bats in 2011--and I don't know why you would be--it still looks like a club that should be approximately as good as they are this year. It's a very talented crop of talent, and I'm sure they'll win the division title.

Projected starting lineup:
CF Dave Sappelt
SS Kris Negron
1B Yonder Alonso
3B Todd Frazier
RF Danny Dorn
C Devin Mesoraco
LF Juan Francisco
2B Jake Kahaulelio

Bench:
C Chris Denove/Corky Miller
OF Denis Phipps/Sean Henry
UT Mike Griffin
UT Wilkin Castillo

Starting rotation:
Aroldis Chapman
Mike Leake
Matt Maloney
Sam LeCure
Matt Klinker

Bullpen:
Phil Valiquette
Ben Jukich
Enerio Del Rosario
Daniel Ray Herrera
Jeremy Horst
Lee Tabor
Joe Krebs
Ben Jukich

Catcher: If the Reds re-sign Ramon Hernandez, Devin Mesoraco will start in Louisville. It could be interesting to see if the Reds keep Corky Miller around with the worse performer starting for the Bats.

First base: This is a no-brainer; Joey Votto is blocking Yonder Alonso. If Alonso is traded in the off-season, look for Danny Dorn to become the primary first baseman.

Second base: Will Chris Valaika start 2011 in Cincinnati? If so, it paves the way for Jake Kahaulelio.

Third base: Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco will likely split time at third base and left field. However, I could see Juan Francisco taking the role of a left-handed bat off the bench for the Reds. If that happens, Todd Frazier might be the third baseman with a free agent (or Sean Henry) replacing him in the outfield

Shortstop: I'd be surprised if Zack Cozart is given the job in Cincinnati, but he doesn't have much left to prove in the minors. Where he ends up will probably determine where Kris Negron ends up.

Outfield: Whoever isn't playing third between Francisco and Frazier, the other will probably take over left field. One of them making the Reds out of spring training would likely result in a Luis Terrero-type free agent (possibly Wladimir Balentien or Sean Henry?) being the replacement. If Dave Sappelt is called up, that could mean Felix Perez gets the call from Carolina. Danny Dorn may get a lot of playing time in the outfield as long as Yonder Alonso is in the organization. To back up the outfielders, there are plenty of free-agents-to-be in the organization who could be retained, but I think there's a good shot they'll look outside the organization.

Starting rotation: It may be odd to see me list Leake in the minor leagues, but with Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez not having options, you know they'll be with the big club. Johnny Cueto is arguably the Reds' best starter when he's on. How do you not pick up Bronson Arroyo's option? And I think Travis Wood, who is conveniently left-handed, has passed up Mike Leake on the depth chart. Maybe we'll see Leake become a long reliever with some combination of Enerio Del Rosario, Daniel Ray Herrera, Carlos Fisher, Jordan Smith, and Jose Arredondo being optioned.

Bullpen: There are TONS of left-handers that belong here. Some of them may need to go to AA or another organization. Otherwise, you'd be stuck with Phil Valiquette, Ben Jukich, Joe Krebs, Lee Tabor, Daniel Ray Herrera, and Jeremy Horst all in the same bullpen. To fill the other roles, I'm sure the Reds will go after a free agent or two.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

I don't think we'll see several of those names next year. I see trades in the off-season for younger guys. Hopefully, pitching

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

That looks pretty accurate. I think Francisco should be 3B and Frazier LF, not the other way around, though. I would guess Griffin and Denove are free agents after the season - possibly Sean Henry also. I doubt that both Negron and Jake Kahaulelio will begin the year starting at AAA - I doubt Valaika and Cozart will both start in Cincinnati, though they are trade candidates - as is Alonso. I also doubt that Phipps will start at AAA - I think a free agent outfielder will be signed before they let that happen, and a free agent middle infielder also seems likely if Griffin leaves, and either Valaika or Cozart starts with the Reds. Hopefully they will resign Corky. It seems unlikely that both Chapman and Leake will start in AAA so a free agent start may also be signed. I do think the Bats will be a contending team next year, but I do not feel nearly as optimistic about next season as I felt about this season before it started. My main concern is organizational depth - if prospects are traded or called up midseason, who replaces them? I don't know if the players in AA next year will be able to help the Bats during the second half.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

I don't see Alonso back. He's simply too good.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

Henry and Phipps are both free agents. I really don't see either signing back.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

I think Alonso and one of the younger pitchers goes this offseason, maybe Wood, Bailey, Volquez.....and a 'big bat' comes in return.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

You have to think one of the Francisco/Alonso/Frazier group is gone this off season.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

Bullpen:
Phil Valiquette

You must be referring to Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette;)

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

why would leake start in aaa?

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

Given how often he's been called up and how well he's hit this year in AAA, I'd be surprised to see Francisco back in Louisville next year. I know he's young, but it doesn't look like he's going to develop much plate discipline until he has to and that's not going to happen in AAA.

I'd say Valiaka will likely take Cairo's spot in Cincy and Frazier/Francisco will battle it out for the 3B/OF role. If Fransisco wins, Frazier plays 3B in AAA. If Frazier wins, Francisco is trade bait.

Regarding Leake in AAA, I understand viewing him as the 7th starter if you count Harang and Arroyo (and move him up accordingly if either or both aren't retained). But I think they'd use him in the bullpen in Cincy before sending him to AAA. As they said earlier this year, "what's he going to work on?" I think you'll see Fisher traded or optioned. He'll be 28 next year and hasn't shown the ability to throw strikes in the major leagues.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

I for one hopes that Arredondo's got something to prove and shows up healthy. With his stuff, I'd say he could be an option for the ML bullpen later on.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

Unless Dorn is protected before the rule 5 draft I expect to see him gone also. I mean everyone cant pass on him again can they?

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

Question for you guys...

Based on Chapman's performances recently and his out of this world heat, do you think he may be considered a closer? Is he already locked in as a starter in the organizations plans? Thanks for feedback.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

I think its a growing possibility. With the rotation potentially already full, a clear path would be for Chapman to replace Rhodes as the power lefty in 2011 and then slide into closer in place of Cordero in 2012. I hate the thought of burning a potential TOR starter in the pen, but Mariano Rivera made a similar transition under similar circumstances. I'd say that worked out.

We probably won't see any 105s if he's a starter and throwing that hard may take a toll that holding him to 1 inning stints will keep at bay. It will be interesting to see what they do. I'm geared up to see him as a TOR arm, but I wouldn't be surprised or in much disagreement if the Reds took the relief path with Chapman.

A 2012 back-end of Joseph, Masset and Chapman may bring us a new version of the nasty boys. If Valiquette can get his high 90's LH heat under control and Ondrusek can keep progressing with Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Wood and Leake as the starting staff, it could be a dominant staff with no real weak links.

That's a lot of ifs though.

Re: 2011 Louisville Bats
 

Chapman should be a starter until he proves he cant be.