Back on January 8th, I made the following predictions for the upcoming season:
I don't think I'll be changing any of my American League predictions, but do have a few to make in the NL..
Astros over Phillies
Giants over Cards
Giants over Astros
Giants over A's
So what did the Pirates do to sneak by the Reds in your predictions? :thumbdn:
Also, I like their starting rotation better then the Reds. Suppan in PNC Park should be a big boost to them.
(By the way, yes I know that Pokey's injury is minor, but with Pokey you never know when OPERATION SHUTDOWN v2.0 might go into effect)
Good enough! Although of course, I do not agree! :bash:
A few comments.
I think the Buccos did improve, but no way do I see them jumping by the Reds. Cubs...they have to prove it to me that they have improved that much. I like their rotation but don't really like their offense all that much. Reds second place behind the Astros. Cards third in my mind.
Anaheim in fourth. Ouch. No way do they make the playoffs but I think, falling behind Texas is a bit of a stretch.
Bosox ahead of the Yankees? I would love that to happen but don't see that either. Look at their roster. They have all stars at every position and starters coming out the rear to trade. No way do they not win the East.
Atlanta falls to fourth? Don't believe that either. 2nd maybe, fourth no way.
Pads ahead of Dbacks? Could happen but I can't see it.
The rest I can see happening.
Cincy (wild card)
2. New York
5. Tampa Bay
4. Kansas City
2. New York
5. St Louis
2. San Diego
3. San Fransisco
5. Los Angeles
1)New York Yankees
2)Boston Red Sox
3)Toronto Blue Jays
5)Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2)Chicago White Sox
5)Kansas City Royals
5)New York Mets
4)St. Louis Cardinals
1)Los Angeles Dodgers
2)San Francisco Giants
4)San Diego Padres
AL CHAMPS:Oakland A's
NL CHAMPS:Los Angeles Dodgers
WORLD CHAMPS:Oakland A's
AL MVP:Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP:Shawn Green
AL CY:Pedro Martinez
NL CY:Odalis Perez
AL ROY:Jason Arnold
NL ROY:Marlon Byrd
I've got Atlanta in 2nd now and the Pads in 4th
(this division would seem to be the easiest to predict)
(Oakland's offense is a question mark. Anaheim's pitching could suffer a setback)
AL Wildcard - Boston
New York over Boston
Minnesota over Seattle
New York over Minnesota
(This is going to be a tight race. Florida will be involved in quite a few low-scoring and 1-run games. I think their pitching puts them over .500. Philly will win the division, but the spread from 1st to 4th will be less than 10 games.)
(THE toughest division to handicap considering all of the question marks for each team. Cincy is due for an upswing; St.Louis is looking at another tough year. This race will come down to the final week of the season).
(San Francisco in a runaway. Arizona is just getting older and this is the year they really start to show it. LA improves some with Colorado and San Diego hovering around .500).
NL Wildcard - Cincinnati
San Francisco over Cincinnati
Houston over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Philadelphia
New York over San Francisco
Now which is it, Redsfaithful. 2003 MVP - Shawn Green or Ken Griffey Jr.?;)
That was cut and pasted from a contest entry Randy.
I may be the eternal optimist but if there's prizes involved I gotta come back down to earth. :thumbup:
REDS over phillies
D-backs over astros
d-backs over reds
Twins over Yankees
Red sox over A's
Sox over Yankees
And finally the Sox bring the championship back to boston
MVP KEN GRIFFEY JR.
Baseball Prospectus is running a prediction contest.
I figure Boss is going to archive this thread soon. And since it's getting close to opening day, and since I'll be traveling to Cincinnati over the weekend for opening day :), I thought I'd better call my shot early.
One thing that really struck me this year is that the National League is extremely wide open. There is really only one team that I would consider "hopeless" this year, and that's the Brewers. Of course some teams are major longshots, such as the Padres, Pirates, and Marlins. But I wouldn't call them "hopeless." The American League is a different story, where the Devil Rays, Orioles, Royals, and Tigers are totally screwed as usual.
Since it's so wide open in the NL, I decided to rank the teams the same way that Diamond Mind Baseball does it - with odds of winning. I usually sneak a peak at their predictions, but 1) they don't come out until the 30th and 2) they didn't really help last year (the Angels were predicted to go .500). So this is all done UN-scientifically. The only math I did was to make sure that the odds of each division added up to 100%.
Anyway, here goes...
American League East
Yankees – Win Division 53%, Reach Postseason 75%
Red Sox – Win Division 45%, Reach Postseason 66%
Toronto – Win Division 2%, Reach Postseason 10%
Baltimore – Less Than 1% chance of postseason
Tampa – Less Than 1% chance of postseason
American League Central
Minnesota - Win Division 60%, Reach Postseason 65%
Chicago - Win Division 35%, Reach Postseason 40%
Cleveland - Win Division 5%, Reach Postseason 5%
Kansas City – Less than 1% chance of postseason
Detroit – Less Than 1% chance of postseason
American League West
Oakland - Win Division 50%, Reach Postseason 66%
Seattle - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 33%
Anaheim - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 33%
Texas - Win Division 10%, Reach Postseason 15%
National League East
Atlanta - Win Division 40%, Reach Postseason 50%
Philadelphia - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 40%
New York - Win Division 20%, Reach Postseason 33%
Montreal - Win Division 8%, Reach Postseason 15%
Florida - Win Division 7%, Reach Postseason 15%
National League Central
Houston - Win Division 40%, Reach Postseason 50%
St. Louis - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 40%
Chicago - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 30%
Cincinnati - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 25%
Pittsburgh - Win Division 5%, Reach Postseason 6%
Milwaukee - Less Than 1% chance of postseason
National League West
San Francisco - Win Division 38%, Reach Postseason 45%
Arizona - Win Division 35%, Reach Postseason 45%
Colorado - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 25%
Los Angeles - Win Division 10%, Reach Postseason 25%
San Diego - Win Division 2%, Reach Postseason 5%
NL MVP Runner Up (since Bonds is going to win): Jeff Kent
NL Cy Young Runner Up (since RJ is going to win): Mark Prior
NY Rookie of the Year: Kurt Ainsworth (if he still qualifies)
AL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
AL Rookie of the Year Runner Up (Since Mastui is going to win): Travis Hafner
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