RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion
Page 1 of 3 1 23
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion (http://www.redszone.com/forums/index.php)
-   Minor League Talk (http://www.redszone.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=26)
-   -   John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=85402)

OnBaseMachine 09-03-2010 06:42 PM
John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
I meant to post this earlier today but forgot.

Quote:
Based on what I currently know, I think his improvement is genuine. That's not to say that his development will continue in a linear way. Catchers often have strange development paths, and he could regress next year. But I don't think '10 is a fluke, and his stock has obviously shot up again. I rate him as a Grade B+ prospect currently.
Full piece:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/...devin-mesoraco

GIDP 09-03-2010 06:54 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
I was reading that earlier. While he kinda admits he wrote off Mes too early and says the year is realistic numbers, he still finds ways to allow himself to back track. Ends up saying hes a B+ prospect.

The pride of these guys is really comical to me. I like Sickels, but he seems to be saying 1 thing then finding something else to make it seem like he honestly wasnt that wrong and builds a case for him to recover when hes wrong again.

SeeinRed 09-03-2010 07:26 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
I agree with GIDP. Sound like to me that Sickels' main agenda was to defend his previous analysis. Kind of like saying yeah I was wrong, but it wasn't my fault. Granted, Devin had a pretty bad year last year, but a player doesn't turn from a terrible prospect to a good one in one season. There had to be signs there and scouts that saw them. I also find it unlikely that a player just completely revamps his swing in one season and suddenly becomes a very good hitter.

My gut feeling is there was not a lot of legwork that went into his original analysis and he is now seeing it blow up in his face. Just my opinion, and probably a very wrong one.

bubbachunk 09-03-2010 07:33 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
I didnt think he really had any real defensive issues or am I missing something?

IslandRed 09-03-2010 11:33 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
On Sickels' scale, a B+ is a pretty strong grade. An A is reserved for those he considers virtual can't-miss successes. In his organizational Top 20s from last winter, there were a number of farm systems -- including some we'd consider pretty decent -- that didn't have anyone above a B+.

Griffey012 09-03-2010 11:54 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
I feel like a B+ is a pretty fair assessment. He has been awesome this year, but Sickels mentions the historically unpredictable track record of catching prospects. If he would have taken that 1 step further and mentioned the bad record of 1st round picks he would have been spot on.

marcshoe 09-04-2010 12:10 AM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
I'd written Mes off before the season started. I mean, failed first rounders haven't exactly been rare in the past. He surprised me this season. I still can't help but wonder if he won't eventually be packaged in a trade, but at least if this is the case he now has value.

REDblooded 09-04-2010 02:28 AM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bubbachunk (Post 2241904)
I didnt think he really had any real defensive issues or am I missing something?
Passed balls...

mbgrayson 09-07-2010 09:59 AM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by IslandRed (Post 2242984)
On Sickels' scale, a B+ is a pretty strong grade. An A is reserved for those he considers virtual can't-miss successes. In his organizational Top 20s from last winter, there were a number of farm systems -- including some we'd consider pretty decent -- that didn't have anyone above a B+.
In Sickels 2010 Prospect book, there were a total of 10 position players/hitters rated higher than a B+ (either A- or A).

RedEye 09-07-2010 10:43 AM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbgrayson (Post 2246993)
In Sickels 2010 Prospect book, there were a total of 10 position players/hitters rated higher than a B+ (either A- or A).
For perspective, in 2008, Bruce was an "A" and both Votto and Cueto were "A-". That same year, Mesoraco got a "B"--but I think it was pretty much only based on his high draft status and a very small sample in the minors.

Here is the original thread. (hat tip to RedLegSuperstar).

And here is Sickels' 2008 take on Mes:

Quote:
7) Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
.280/.329/.436 for Dayton in the Midwest League. Plate discipline has been shaky, but overall this is good for the pitching-dominated Midwest League.

camisadelgolf 09-27-2010 02:57 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ts-chat-92710/
John Sickels isn't the only one to think 2010 wasn't a fluke for Mesoraco. Bryan Smith of fangraphs said:
Quote:
I think [Mesoraco] can stick behind the plate, and I think he can legitimately hit a fastball a long way. I don't think he's ever hitting .302/.377/.587 in the Majors, but then again, he's probably the MVP if he does. He's probably like a .270/.340/.470 hitter in the bigs, which at catcher, is awfully valuable.
There were multiple mentions of Aroldis Chapman and also a quick mention of Zach Stewart if you're interested in reading the entire chat.

Brutus 09-27-2010 03:14 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by camisadelgolf (Post 2269400)
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ts-chat-92710/
John Sickels isn't the only one to think 2010 was a fluke for Mesoraco. Bryan Smith of fangraphs said:


There were multiple mentions of Aroldis Chapman and also a quick mention of Zach Stewart if you're interested in reading the entire chat.
I didn't read that as thinking Mesoraco is a fluke at all. All he really said was he doesn't see Mez being a .950 hitter in the majors. Does anyone really disagree with that? I sure don't. Very few hitters are able to do that. But that doesn't mean I think he's a fluke.

I think this is a case where he's just being realistic about the translation to major league success. I don't think that's saying he's been a fluke this year. He basically added he would not be surprised if he's an .800 catcher. That's pretty complimentary IMHO.

dougdirt 09-27-2010 03:23 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp (Post 2269415)
I didn't read that as thinking Mesoraco is a fluke at all. All he really said was he doesn't see Mez being a .950 hitter in the majors. Does anyone really disagree with that? I sure don't. Very few hitters are able to do that. But that doesn't mean I think he's a fluke.

I think this is a case where he's just being realistic about the translation to major league success. I don't think that's saying he's been a fluke this year. He basically added he would not be surprised if he's an .800 catcher. That's pretty complimentary IMHO.
This.

He has Mesoraco as an .810 OPS catcher.... That is pretty elite company. Three catchers were able to top that in 2009 with at least 450 at bats. Only 4 guys over 400 at bats were able to do that.

RedsManRick 09-27-2010 03:25 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
I read both of those as simply that they don't think Mesoraco will perform at a HOF level. For what it's worth, here are the catcher seasons of OPS >.900 w/ minimum of 350 PA.
Code:
Rk        Player                Year        Age        PA        BA        OBP        SLG        OPS        HR        RBI
1        Joe Mauer        2009        26        606        .365        .444        .587        1.031        28        96
2        Jorge Posada        2007        35        589        .338        .426        .543        .970        20        90
3        Joe Mauer        2006        23        608        .347        .429        .507        .936        13        84
4        Brian McCann        2006        22        492        .333        .388        .572        .961        24        93
5        Javy Lopez        2003        32        495        .328        .378        .687        1.065        43        109
6        Jorge Posada        2003        31        588        .281        .405        .518        .922        30        101
7        Mike Piazza        2002        33        541        .280        .359        .544        .903        33        98
8        Paul Lo Duca        2001        29        519        .320        .374        .543        .917        25        90
9        Mike Piazza        2001        32        573        .300        .384        .573        .957        36        94
10        Jorge Posada        2000        28        624        .287        .417        .527        .943        28        86
11        Mike Piazza        2000        31        545        .324        .398        .614        1.012        38        113
12        Charles Johnson        2000        28        478        .304        .379        .582        .961        31        91
That's 12 seasons from 6 guys in the last decade, about 1 per year. Two of those 6 guys are likely future HOFers (Mauer & Piazza) and I certainly wouldn't rule Posada or McCann.

There have been 65 catcher seasons of .800+ OPS since 2000. If Mesoraco plays in 120 games and hits .270/.350/.450, that would make him one of the best catchers in baseball. We shouldn't get worried that people don't think he'll sustain a .950+ OPS.

camisadelgolf 09-27-2010 03:34 PM
Re: John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp (Post 2269415)
I didn't read that as thinking Mesoraco is a fluke at all. All he really said was he doesn't see Mez being a .950 hitter in the majors. Does anyone really disagree with that? I sure don't. Very few hitters are able to do that. But that doesn't mean I think he's a fluke.

I think this is a case where he's just being realistic about the translation to major league success. I don't think that's saying he's been a fluke this year. He basically added he would not be surprised if he's an .800 catcher. That's pretty complimentary IMHO.
It was a typo. Whoops. :redface:


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:22 PM.
Page 1 of 3 1 23
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.