A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

I'm fully aware of those that have reached Louisville and Carolina and know about most of the guys in the lower levels, but I'd like to see some opinions on the potential of guys at the lowest levels. Maybe to 20-25.

TiA

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

All right. Bear in mind, these are wildly subjective and patently unscientific. It would no doubt look different if I did it again tomorrow.

I've gone to 40 because, well, I guess I can't help myself. Beyond that, though, this is unquestionably the strongest, deepest and the most critical talent cluster in the system, aside from the Louisville-Cincinnati shuttle.

I haven't attempted to describe or justify the choices because, well, that was a little too much work for this pass. Just ages and positions of players from a pool that includes all four rookie teams. A few guys (Torreyes, for instance) received late-season looks in Dayton, but I still consider them rookie-leaguers in 2010.

1. Yorman Rodriguez, 17, CF
2. Billy Hamilton, 19, SS-2B
3. Ismael Guillon, 18, LHP
4. Jonathan Correa, 19, RHP
5. Yasmani Grandal, 21, C
6. Ronald Torreyes, 17, 2B-3B
7. Tucker Barnhart, 19, C
8. Junior Arias, 18, SS-3B
9. Juan Duran, 18, OF
10. Abel De Los Santos, 18, RHP
11. Carlos Sanchez, 19, 1B
12. David Vidal, 20, 3B
13. Luis Gonzalez, 17, LHP
14. Tanner Robles, 21, LHP
15. John Wes Mugarian, 18, RHP
16. Daniel Tuttle, 19, RHP
17. Drew Cisco, 18, RHP
18. Kyle Waldrop, 18, OF
19. Samuel Diaz, 19, 2B-3B
20. Radhames Quezada, 19, RHP
21. Eliezer Beard, 19, RHP
22. Humberto Valor, 17, SS
23. Theo Bowe, 19, OF
24. El’Hajj Muhammad, 18, RHP
25. Jefry Sierra, 20, 2B-CF
26. Wandy Peralta, 18, LHP
27. Jose Amezcua, 19, RHP
28. Jose Guzman, 18, RHP
29. Jaren Matthews, 21, OF
30. Eury Cantalizo, 18, RHP
31. Nathan Driessen, 19, LHP
32. Robert Maddox, 21, OF
33. Carlos Ramos, 19, RHP
34. Tyler Cline, 20, RHP
35. Porfirio Martinez, 20, RHP
36. Mitchell Clarke, 19, RHP
37. Alejandro Chacin, 17, RHP
38. Dayne Read, 21, OF
39. Stalin Gerson, 21, RHP
40. Donald Lutz, 21, 1B

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

My list would consist of mostly the same names but possibly in a very different order. Either way, I like what you did. It's fun to think that the listed could have actually extended further. One of the bigger surprises for me was Carlos Ramos, who I expected to see a bit higher. Another surprise for me was seeing Carlos Sanchez so high. He reminds me a lot of Humberto Sosa. Also, did you consider Kyle Lotzkar?

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

Ramos: Yeah, he's definitely one of those guys who could go anywhere from about 15 to 35. Had a fabulous year. I guess I dropped him because he flagged a bit in the playoffs, and Cantilizo seemed to overtake him. Plus, Cantalizo's younger.

Sanchez: He was really the only offensive threat for a team that went to the league finals. He led the DSL in hits and was top-five in most of the major categories. Had a tremendous year.

Lotzkar: No, I didn't include him in the mix. I mean, yeah, he's pitching in Billings, but I don't consider him a rookie-leaguer, because of his previous experience in Dayton. Had he been considered, I'd have ranked him very high. Love that guy.

FWIW, my next-man-in was Kurtis Muller.

Looking forward to yours, c'golf.

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

I never actually considered making a list due to the time and effort it would take, but I guess I could write up a rough draft while I'm taking a break from work.

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

My Top 25

1) Lotzkar - Yes he has pitched in Dayton before, but only for 37 IP. Not much more than Corcino who we consider on this same list. Has a legit TOR arm that could be in Cincy by 2012. Shaky at first recovering from arm issues but has just let it loose his last few starts 15 IP 7 H 2 BB 26 K. No one in the system has more of a ML stamp on him than this guy if he can stay healthy.

1a) Hamilton - Has done everything you could ask a prospect to do. Good BA? (.320) Take a BB? (28 in 275 AB) Under 20% K rate? (19%) Steal a base? (48 in 57 Tries) Play D? (.978 FLD% at 2B) Flash some power? (.458 SLG%) Turns 20 in 2 days.

2) Yorman - Struggled with some injuries but showed all the flashes of potential he could be some day. Didn't hit LHP at all (.422 OPS) which is scary since he had such solid #'s anyways.

3) Correa - 66 IP - 19 BB - 83 K - Turns 20 in 6 days.

3a) Gullion - 53 IP - 24 BB - 81 K

4) Torreyes - This years recipient of the Redus award. .434/.565/.999 Played flawless D at 2B (26 Games - 0 E's - 5.38 Chances per) 24 BB - 19 K - 25 SB

5) Arias - Has power (.482 SLG%) Has a big frame (6'2" 180) Had 25 E's in 43 Games. Candidate for 3B or OF?

6) Clarke - LHP from Canada. Excellent control 8 BB in 39 IP. Misses bats (41 K) GB pitcher (1.58) Never given up a HR. Big 6'2" 220LB frame.

7) Duran - If and when his contact rate becomes consistent he could be the next Mike Stanton. Like Yorman cannot hit LHP yet... (.476 OPS)

8) Corcino - OBM loves this guy. I think he might be better served in the bullpen due to high walk rates (4.1) and a OK K rate (7.6)

9 Vidal - Plays 3B and C and hits with power and has patience. If he converts to C full time in the offseason, his value could increase quite a bit.

10) Robles - LHP - Comes from a top Pac 10 Pitching school and after some bad starts to begin the year, he just ate alive the competition in Billings. Last 10 - 49 IP 26 H 14 BB 54 K 1.47 ERA

11) Lutz - Has been under the radar all year in Billings due to all the star power but has the highest OPS there (.850) Leads the team in SLG% (.490) HR (7) 2nd in 2B and 3rd RBI (28)

12) Matthews - Had all kinds of red flags all over him but really carried the AZL team on his back at times. Hit for power, AVG, played 1B and RF took a walk but K's way way to much. 38 in 100 AB's. OPS'd over 1.000 against both LH and RH Pitching. Drafted in the 32nd RD. Reds have history at or around that pick of success.

13) Mungarian - One of 3 HS RHP taken in a row. Had a solid debut. 22 IP 11 BB 31 K Numbers were even better as a starter 19 IP 7 BB 26 K 2.29 ERA

14) Cisco - 2nd of the HS 3. Never pitched due to late signing, but supposedly has command and refinement of 4 pitches of at least 2 could be plus.

15) Amezcua - 3rd of the HS 3. Pitched very little but supposedly throws the hardest. (93-95 MPH) Might be the longest project of the 3 but had some success when he did pitch.

16) Barnhart - Walks a ton, hits for average, 2B's power, switch hitter. Up until the SH part you'd think we were talking about Hanigan. Smallish at 5'9" but might make a switch to 2B eventually.

17) Waldrop - Signed late due to MLB holding up the contract but has a big frame, and plus speed. He could go all Mike Trout on us next year.

18) Silva - Had a awful year. It could be from pouting he wasn't promoted or something mechanically wrong. Still showed great patience at the plate 23 BB in 178 AB's and still only 19. OPS'd .693 through it all.

19) Muhammad - How often do you see a 49th round pick on a top prospect list? The way he was used as a long man makes me think the Reds are considering him as a starter going into next year. 14 Games 32 IP 24 H 44 K

20) Tuttle - Had a down year vs what was expected. Was wild as all get out this year (11 HB 29 BB in 58 IP) But still profiles as someone who'll be in Dayton next year and still has TOR/MOR type stuff.


I didn't consider Grandal just because he was in the AZL due to a long layoff.

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

This is a really tough list to make at this point without having information on enough guys from this season. The top 4 is easy for me. After that, I don't have the information I would like to on the guys.
1. Yorman Rodriguez
2. Billy Hamilton (I reserve the right to switch these two at any given point in time, they are incredibly close).
3. Yasmani Grandal
4. Jonathan Correa

After that, I have questions that I don't have answers for yet on guys like Junior Arias, Ismael Guillon, Kyle Lotzkar and Ronald Torreyes. Hopefully within a week or so, I will have a much better report on each of those guys.

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

Actually, I didn't consider Corcino for this list because I felt he was pretty well settled into Dayton, where he spent roughly half his time this year.

The main difference in our lists appears to be that I rated a lot more DSL/VSL (mostly DSL) guys--which I acknowledge is a crapshoot.

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

Agreed. But putting both Lotzkar and Corcino on your list, where do you rank them?

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

Okay, here's mine. I didn't put a whole lot of thought into it, but it at least gives you an idea. To qualify for the list, the player must not have played in A-ball or higher so far in his career.

1. Yorman Rodriguez
2. Billy Hamilton
3. Yasmani Grandal
4. Jonathan Correa
5. Drew Cisco
6. Ismael Guillon
7. Devin Lohman
8. Luis Gonzalez
9. Juan Duran
10. Tanner Robles
11. Dan Tuttle
12. Tucker Barnhart
13. Wes Mugarian
14. Mitch Clarke
15. Tony Amezcua
16. Junior Arias
17. Eliezer Beard
18. Porfirio Martinez
19. Carlos Ramos
20. Abel De Los Santos
21. Cesar Caceres
22. Humberto Valor
23. Dan Wolford
24. Pat Doyle
25. Drew Hayes
26. Josh Smith
27. Wandy Peralta
28. Oswaldo Mieres
29. Radhames Quezada
30. Lucas O'Rear
31. Kyle Waldrop
32. Alejandro Chacin
33. Juan Silva
34. Kurtis Muller
35. Nate Driessen
36. Carlos Sanchez
37. Jaren Matthews
38. Stephen Hunt
39. Julio Morillo
40. Ronald Bueno

Just missed:
Donald Lutz
Carter Morrison
Dayne Read
Chris Berset
El'Hajj Muhammad
Theo Bowe
Luca Panerati
Matt Leonard

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

Hmm. I guess I'd place Lotzkar #3, between Guillon and Correa. Before he was hurt, I believe that Lotzkar was my top-rated pitcher in the organization. It appears that his stuff his back. My only reservation would be his health history.

I'd put Corcino between Duran and De Los Santos. With Lotzkar in the group, that would put him #11.

If we're going to include those two, we should probably also include Jacob Johnson, who would be right up there. I'd put Johnson between Barnhart and Arias, which would be #9 (and drop Corcino back to #12).

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

Very interesting list. You're obviously heavy--extremely heavy--on young relievers, which offers something to ponder. That stretch from 23-30 is particularly provocative.

I see you have Lohman very high, which makes me think I should maybe have regarded him a little differently. I love your gutsy call on Luis Gonzalez. Good stuff.

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

That's a good point. Although I'm often reluctant to rank relievers as top prospects due to the limited value they can bring to a team, it is fairly common for a reliever to come up and have a few successful seasons before fading into obscurity, whereas a position player is a lot more likely to be a complete hit-or-miss. I guess what I'm saying is that I probably put less emphasis on ceiling than a lot of other people do, which might explain why I have Juan Duran at #9 and Devin Lohman at #7.

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

Hey, golf -- no Torreyes? Did you mean that?

And to a lesser extent, Vidal?

Re: A ball/Rookie Top 20
 

They've both played in Dayton, so I left them off to be consistent.