If you've read Grantland's baseball coverage long enough, you probably know that I'm completely in the tank for Todd Frazier. A relatively unheralded prospect compared to the Trouts and Harpers of the world, Frazier still put up shiny numbers in his rookie season, hitting .273/.331/.498 with 19 homers in 128 games. I'll show my non-stathead side and say the guy played with some serious verve too, like the time he hit a home run zero-handed. Still, this being an objective exercise, we have to look at the facts: Frazier turns 27 in February, struck out just under three times as often as he walked in 2012, plays so-so defense, and put up decent but unspectacular numbers in the minors. As Grantland colleague Rany Jazayerli (one of my three consiglieres/sounding boards for this project, along with Baseball Prospectus's R.J. Anderson and FanGraphs' Dave Cameron, who writes an excellent trade value series of his own) put it, Frazier "could easily go full Marty Cordova next season" — meaning he could turn out to be another late bloomer who fares well in his rookie year, then never plays that well again.