Has Stubbs ever put up one month of stats that live up to his pedigree?
Then again, if you consider that his pedigree coming out in the draft was something like "super fast and athletic outfielder with great power potential and serious contact issues" (obviously I'm paraphrasing) then I suppose he fits it to a tee.
Stubbs line against righties last year was .186/.259/.282/.541.
It's worth noting that despite hitting more groundballs than ever in 2012 (GB have the highest natural BABIP), Stubbs BABIP dropped 50 points last year, 40 points below his prior career average. Because he still had a .290 BABIP, that's easy to overlook. We might just say that he was getting lucky before last year. But elite speed is one of those things that correlates with a reliably higher than average BABIP. So what happened?
In 2012, he had a .241 BABIP on GB. In 2011 that was .328. In 2010 that was .360. In 2009 that was .315.
One of a few things happened.
- He start hitting a lot more weak grounders
- Teams started defending him very differently
- He stopped being really freaking fast
If that overall BABIP went back up to .330, that's going to be about 25 points of AVG/OBP and 30 to 40 points of slugging. Then he's looking at a line of .240/.310/.370. That's certainly nobody's idea of a star, particularly against RHP, but it's easily playable.
I think we've attributed too much of Stubbs' decline to his contact issues and not accounted enough for what looks to be a a nice helping of bad luck. That's not to say we shouldn't be worried about his contact issues or trying to improve in CF, just more even handed in our narrative.
While I admire much about Chris Heisey, my own opinion is that Stubbs is preferable to keep around. Love his defense, he's an adequate hitter against lefties. Just needs a LHH partner out there.
Downing came up as a sort of pudgy, non-remarkable part-time catcher. After five seasons with the White Sox, he was thrown in to a multiplayer trade to the Angels. After one lackluster season with the Angels, he put up a 142 OPS in 1979 at age 28. He then got hurt and played in 30 games the next season.
At age 30 he came back from injury as a big, slow, injury-hobbled leftfielder. It seemed like a desperate move to salvage his career. But he could always pick up walks, he now added power and by the end of the season he was the Angels lead-off hitter. Over the next 11 full seasons (up to age 41) his OB never fell below .350, usually hitting lead-off.
As James points out he morphed from a pudgy-faced guy with sandy blond hair to a dark-haired Christopher Reeves clone. He stopped wearing glasses. He didn't get contacts, he just stopped wearing glasses.
In retrospect he might've been a PED candidate, but he would've been a very early adopter. And his numbers weren't eye-popping.
So who picked Shin Soo-Choo in the poll? for 2013 CF :devil:
A legitimate improvement like a Choo is more than welcome...but it'll cost a fortune. And unless an extension is figured out, a 1 year rental that costs us future wins with the prospect cost, is a net loss in my eyes.
Me. I just didn't think we'd be able to afford him. I underestimated the wheeling-and-dealing abilities of Mr. Jocketty. Well...IF this gets done. :O) And as for CF...I didn't care where they played him. He's capable defensively (as is Bruce). My concern was getting his bat in the lineup as it fits flawlessly.