Depending on the $, I am fine with two years.
The numbers are pretty bad for Logan. I'm not sure why the Reds would do anything more than they had to. Apparently they must have thought this was better than they'd get in arbitration or they value him differently than they should.
Stats below. I picked WAR, as it seems to roll up things like K rate and other SABER stats. Also looked at WHIP and ERA. I like WHIP because I thiknk the reliever's primary job is to keep runners off base.
So, of your list, only Felicino had a higher WAR than Logan last year
I'm guessing Logan is going to make around 1 to 1.5 million next year.
All the FA pitchers made at least 3.3 million last year. Sure, there's a chance we could talk them into taking less, but we are now asking them to take a minimum 50% paycut. We are also asking former closers/setup guys to be the 3rd or 4th guy out of the pen (depends on Chapman).
I'm not really excited about the injured guys, but I guess if there was good reason to believe they could bounce back, I would listen.
I'm not trading anything for Parra, I think he's worse than Logan.
I guess I am saying, I don't see any of these guys being a big enough upgrade to jettison Logan. Felicino and Rauch might be better, and at the right price, might work, but I imagine it would be a hard sell to get the at Logan money.
Perez being a lefty is interesting, I Don't know why he only pitched 7 innings last year though.
Logan last year:
3.46 ERA, 54 IP, 1.5 WHIP, made 492k last year, no details on 2013, WAR 0.6
Players under contract by other teams (would have to give up someone in trade)
Manny Parra 1.65 WHIP, 5.06 ERA 3rd year arb guy, WAR = -0.9 made 1.2 million last year, arb case pending. (Maybe he was granted FA?)
Rafael Perez: made 2 million last year, 7IP
Rauch: 57 ip, .98 WHIP, 3.59 ERA, WAR 0, made 3.5 million last year.
Farnsworth: 36 years old, 4.00 ERA, only 27 IP last year (don't know why), 1.33 WHIP, WAR = 0, made 3.3 million last year.
Juan Carlos Oviedo: 29 years old, 64 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, made 6 million last year. WAR = 0.5
KRod: 30 years old, WHIP 1.33, ERA 4.38, WAR = 0 made 8 million last year.
Brian Wilson: Coming off injury, made 8.5 million last year
Capps: only 29 IP last year, WHIP 1.09, made 4.5 milllion last year. I think the Twins declined his 6 million option so he's a FA.
Brandon Lyon: 2.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, WAR 0.5, 25 IP, made 5.5 million last year.
Pedro Feliciano: 62 ip, 3.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, WAR 0.8, made 2.9 million last year
Matt Lindstrom: 10 IP, 3.6 million. 3.6 million last year
If the NL Central ends up being a tight race, or if Marshall gets DLed, I sacrifice Cingrani's development time. Right now, I don't see the delta between Cingranni and Logan being even one win over the course of the season.
Jocketty has done this quite a lot over the last several years, giving guys like this two year deals. The common thread, IMO, is that should they bust (and we know some do), the hit financially is not that great. MLBTradeRumors projected LO to get about $900K. And it means he probably would get around $1.5M or so next year, maybe a bit more. So if this is a two year $2M deal, that's some savings. Plus, if they have to cut him loose next year, the hit is lessened because the minimum at this point is so high ($490K this year, $500K next) and whoever picks him up pays that amount regardless. It gives that cost certainty that is important. And it possibly makes him a more valuable trade chip since he's locked up for another year. Just some added thoughts.
My only point, other than stating that your's was your opinion, was that such two year deals, which the club has had a penchant for in recent years, aren't that threatening financially. Ondrusek isn't going to receive the ML minimum in arbitration. My guess is that when we see the numbers, this will be much ado about nothing.
I could care less what Ondrusek's numbers have been, or what his salary is for the next two years. My problem with this deal is that relievers, especially middle relievers, rarely have more than two good years in them.
The reason is that most have average stuff, but can get by on being unknown. It takes a season or two before the whole league sees a middle reliever enough to learn enough to hit him, but once they do, he's usually easy to hit. I think we have already started to see that happen with Ondrusek, and I think he will only become more and more hittable the longer he pitches.
That's why a think a good team keeps rebuilding their middle releif every year or two, and doesn't sign guys who have been there for a few years.
I also think the Reds, or any team, could find guys as good as Ondrusek off the waiver wire after spring training, ala Simon last year. There are always plenty available at that time every year.
Sheldon's take on the signing where he has the same feeling of those not thrilled with the deal, but acknowledges the club's recent propensity for this type of signing.
Also I looked at Ondrusek's game log from last year and noticed his excellant ratio regarding inherited runners scoring (only 4 out of 42). I wonder too how his numbers look eliminating a couple games - certainly the 5 run fiasco in May - interesting looking at the boxscore and PBP there; that baby just got away from him, and perhaps the 3 walk outing in July, I believe. Again looking game by game, overall I think he had a decent season. There were bumps and he likely needs to build stamina, I think. But 2012 was not a bad season overall.