Originally Posted by SandyD
Steel, how do you apply these measures to college players?
Different levels of competition in different conferences.
College baseball is about winning, while the minor leagues focus on development. So, a college coach isn't concerned about how his player projects. He wants his players to contribute here and now.
It's tough because of the aluminum bat variable. That being said, if we're looking at advanced college hitters who're playing at the same level of competition we know that they're closer to their physical peaks so we can assume a bit more about their power potential than younger kids even though we'll most likely also see a power degradation for many.
Aluminum bats don't really impact IsoD that much, but I'd much rather see an IsoD well above .100 (see: Swisher, Nick) in a big conference than see something below. Even at .100, it's not a guarantee that the hitter will be able to manifest an above average IsoD over time- especially over the short range future as there's generally some IsoD degradation that we need to account for.
A guy like Stubbs is right on the fence. If his IsoD is for real, that bodes well for his Isolated Power numbers long-term because it means a goodly portion of his college power numbers representative of his plate discipline/pitch recognition skill sets. Personally, I think he can keep his IsoD above 80 points and that means he's got a real shot of being a productive hitter even losing the aluminum bat. He's got the size to do so and the potential to grow a bit more into his 6'4" frame. Problem is that I'm not sure we're looking at a Center Fielder for too long if he puts on any more muscle mass- and he may have to if rumors of wood bat power issues are true.
A comparable guy (already noted) to take a look at is Nick Swisher out of Ohio State. Similar BA for Swisher and Stubbs in big NCAA Division 1 conferences. Similar power numbers. But take a look at Swisher's IsoD numbers his last two seasons. Ridiculously good. Also important, IMHO, was that Swisher was immediately placed into an environment that consistently nurtures and rewards his innate discipline and recognition skill set. In my mind, it's important that the Reds do the same with Stubbs to max out his potential because he's shown that he kinda' "gets it".