Originally Posted by CaptainHook
That is one of the reason I am AGAINST promoting Bailey.
Most uber-young pitchers take their lumps for two or three years before they turn the corner and become above-average pitchers. Take your earlier example of Jeremy Bonderman. The Tigers basically let Bonderman develop for three years while in the majors and only now are they seeing any return on that investment. Bonderman's results from 2003-2005 ranged from atrocious to below-average, and now that he is finally starting to produce he is already in his arbitration years. Bonderman is about to get very expensive for the Tigers and only has two more years until he hits free agency.
I would much rather see the Reds let Bailey develop until he is a fininshed product and has nothing left to prove in the minors. Then, rather than getting nothing out of him while he is cheap, the Reds might be able to get some solid years out of him BEFORE he hits arbitration. If the Reds really want to get four or five good years out of Homer before he hits free agency, it would be in their best interest to wait until he has rounded out his skill-set.
That's the debate: Start the arbitration clock vs. matching him up with the window of a younger and cheaper core.
Year #1 in 2007 of an average #3 type of pitcher in Bailey might be enough to get you over the top and into the playoffs. Then #2 type stuff in 2008, #1/#2 stuff in 2009. Maybe you compete each season for the postseason, drive up attendance and keep Harang/Arroyo/Dunn in place a few more years.
2007 at .500 with no Bailey, then add him in 2008 or 2009 with #2 type stuff and risk having some of your young core gone due to payroll and lower attendance in 2007 (Arroyo's contract is up after 2008, Lopez, Kearns, Dunn all super expensive). Maybe that gets you to finish .500 in 2009??
Bonderman lost 19 and had bad numbers on an awful team but Sabathia came out with #2 type stuff, won 17 games and had a 4.3ish ERA in his first season and led the Tribe to a division title on a team with three aging gas cans in the rotation (Burba/Finley and a going fast downhill Charles Nagy). Dontrelle put his team over the top and into the WS in 2003.
All depends if you believe the Reds will be better positioned in 2007 vs. 2009. The FO has a lot of work to do regardless.