Originally Posted by flyer85
BABIP is what allowed people to predict that what the Reds were getting in Majewski and Cormier were not the pitchers their ERA suggested the Reds were getting. That was because they both had been BABIP lucky up to the point of their trades.
Could their luck have continued? Sure but the odds very heavily against and much more in favor of a coming correction.
First of all, thank you for your constructive reply. I was worried that this thread may become a bit intractable.
It just seems to me that BABIP is statistically insignificant. It can be argued that a high BABIP can forgive a bad ERA or be the nexus of it. It appears that people who pay a lot of attention to the stat are using it to defend positions both ways. My take is that bad stuff gets hit hard and good stuff doesn't. BABIP does not explain away the bad seasons for Schilling and Johnson you referenced. You can have good stuff and still pitch poorly. Conversely, you can have bad stuff and still put together a nice season (see: Haynes, Jimmy).
To sum, BABIP is the result, not the cause and, therefore an insignificant statistic.