I don't buy Houston at all. Their line up is quickly becoming the D'Backs of the Nl Central WITHOUT the depth as backups that the D'Backs have had.
Houston line up is getting long in the tooth, and I can see several serious break downs as the season goes along. Biggio, Bagwell, Kent abd even Ausmus (who has a history of injury) are all on the other side of the peak of their careers. I know they are all still very good players, but at some point, age may make the wear and tear of a long schedule an issue.
I might be wrong about this, I just think it is not a good aspect of a team you want to crown "the team to beat."
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