Originally Posted by GAC
I said this on the other thread (I'm lazy, so I "cut n pasted" it here)....
You'd rather pitch to the guy who is leading the NL in Hrs and RBIs in that situation with the pitcher due up next? They were already in a pinch with two men on - take the bat out of this guy's hand and if anyone is gonna beat you then it's gonna be the pitcher not a Howard. The pitcher came up with bases loaded and that presents greater possibilities/odds (as slim as they were) to get out of the inning. And he did K.
Yes, the odds were against us in that situation; but I'd sure rather not take those chances vs Howard.
A 70% chance of getting Howard out? You get the pitcher out (which they did) and then induce a groundball, you have the opp for a DP, force out at home, and getting out of the inning. Once you get that first out, then it opens up greater possibilities. But you gotta get that first out.
And also remember - Howard is no speedster at 1B. An INF GB and you have an excellent chance of a DP and to get out of that inning.
Wolf didn't k. He hit a screamer to short that Aurilia nabbed for the first out of the inning.
The thing is, the difference between a runner at 2nd and a runner at 3rd with no outs seems to be vast to me. I don't know the numbers statistically, but the lead runner was the only guy that mattered in that situation. By advancing him to third with no outs, no matter who was at the plate, was basically suicide.