Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
The season isn't over. If Drew Stubbs raises his OPS .032 to .800, does that mean you reverse your position?
I am well aware that Stubbs' performance in Billings is not indicative of a top 10 draft pick, especially one of a college junior. As it does with you, it reduces my expectations of his future success. But I still wish to know what Rookie league performances mean (some baseball people say they are meaningless, so there is always that option). Does the success of the college seniors (Turner, Dorn) mean they are legitimate prospects? For every Chris Denorfia, who surprised people with his performance, there is a Steve Smitherman, who couldn't duplicate his success at AAA and Cincinnati.
In the last few years, #1 picks have surprised us. in 2003, Ryan Wagner showed great stuff in his debut (2003) and went all the way to Cincinnati. Many people proclaimed him the next closer and the 2003 draft to be a great one, based on early performances. Three years later, Wagner is struggling to make it back to the majors and our 2003 draftees best prospect is arguable Chris Dickerson.
Then in 2004, Homer Bailey and his fellow draftees contributed average or worse performances in their debut. Many people said this draft was awful, we should have selected a completely different set of players. Two years later, Bailey is one of the best prospects in baseball and he 2004 draft, while not looking as good as the 1998 draft, still holds promise for a handful of prospects.
I am curious as to why Stubbs isn't hitting better. If he displays weaknesses in his abilities that seem to be unresolvable, and those weaknesses are the cause for his poor performance, then my expectations for his future success will be dropped significantly but at this time, I simply don't know enough about him and his abilities to fully form an opinion about him.