Re: REDS Chances
For 84-78 to win the wildcard, San Diego will have to go 10-9 the rest of the way to tie, while Florida goes 11-7, Philadelphia and San Francisco go 12-7, and the Reds go 12-6. Chances are pretty good that one of those five teams will achieve at least that, so an estimate of 84 wins is probably pretty accurate.
However, it wouldn't be shocking to see none of those teams do worse than the above stated records, so 83 could be enough to slip into a one-game playoff for the wildcard. Not saying I would bet money that 83 wins will be enough, but just grasping for optimism. And besides, the NL has been a .500 league all season, so it's not wildly unreasonable to hope that the other teams continue their .500 ways while the Reds go 11-7 and force a tie with somebody.
The thing that Reds fans, and the players on this team, will have think about all winter is "What if they had gone just 4-5 or 3-6 in those last nine West Coast games instead of 1-8?" My question is, who will agonize over it more this winter, the fans or the players?
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