Originally Posted by mth123
We all have stats we think are important I suppose. If you pick and choose enough you can seemingly make a case for or against anything. Stats are great when applied correctly. You can choose the small sample size of Sept OPS which were accumulated through years of meaningless games with many of his team's primary players sitting out with injury (Griffey, Kearns, Casey, Pena, Boone, etc.) during most of those years.
I choose to see a guy who won't be 27 until November, who has put up 3 years in a row with over 40 Homers, a high OBP and a high OPS. There aren't many players with stats like that in MLB and even fewer that are only 26. I seriously doubt many will become available to build this team around and if they are they will probably cost more than $10 Million. I'd trade Dunn if I could get a serious haul that filled three or four needs long term. Lacking that I would build around the guy. Don't make the mistake of thinking that trading Dunn is payroll relief. It will cost more than he is paid to replace him.
We probably just disagree on this point.
It's not just September, though. I just checked: his lifetime August OPS is .820 -- pretty ordinary for your best hitter. And Sept. has now dropped to .748, which means that for the last two months of the season, his entire career, the OPS is well below .800. That's not a tiny sample size. It's roughly a third of his at-bats, arguably the most important third, with pennant races going on and theoretically playoff games ahead. If the Reds ever make the playoffs, do you want it to be with your "franchise player" in a free fall since July?
I really really do understand the value of Dunn. I love his patience. He does his part to make pitchers work. He's an imposing presence in the lineup. He gets on base and scores a lot. He drives in more runs than anyone else on the team. He's really young and may get way better. He's better defensively than most people give him credit for.
But he's going to get very expensive very soon. The time is coming to decide whether he's your guy to build your offense around or not. If so, bat him third and leave him there. If not, start exploring what you can get for him. This offseason would be a good time for that.