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Old 10-14-2006, 07:55 PM   #7
11BarryLarkin11
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Earth
Posts: 244
Re: 2007 Reds Armchair GM

I actually did a bit of forecasting to see how my constructed team would fare.

Anyway, here's my forecast for the team I dreamed up. It's not perfect or professional by any stretch of the imagination, but I think it's actually pretty solid.

Here's a fairly conservative look at the production I would expect:

Starters

Player:_PA_ BA_OBP_HRs
Erstad:_515_.275_.335_9
Phillips:_625_.280_.331_19
Ensberg: 595_.265_.375_31
Griffey Jr.:450_.260_.340_26
Edwin E.:_600_.276_.357_24
J. Werth:_520_.260_.347_18
A.Everett:540_.249_.302_10
J.LaRue:_420_.250_.346_12


Bench

Player:_PA_ BA_OBP_HRs
R.Freel:_495_.274_.368_6
Valentin:_240_.265_.326_9
A.Boone:_200_.265_.329_5
Denorfia:_355_.280_.360_7
Petagine:_160_.230_.349_4

Starting Pitching

Pitcher:__IP_BB/9_K/9_HRs_WHIP
Harang:_215_2.2_8.3_21_1.26
Arroyo:_205_2.4__7.0_27_1.24
Lizard:_140_2.2__5.5_22_1.27
Correia:_178_3.3_7.0_27_1.36
Sanchez:_140_3.5_6.5_14_1.39
H.Bailey:__90_3.3_7.5_10_1.34

Relief Pitching
Pitcher:_IP_BB/9_K/9_HRs_WHIP
Tomko:_70_2.8__6.3_10__1.32
Wheeler:70_2.5__8.2__9__1.16
B.Bray:_66_3.3__6.9__7__1.39
Coffey:_73_2.8__6.2__7__1.35
Bradford:75_2.2_6.2_5__1.17
E.Milton:_55_2.7_5.3_11_1.36
Majewski:_65_3.2_5.7_3_1.38


Given this level of production by the players, by my calculations, the team that I "created" would score 755 Runs and, when you factor in the defense, they'd allow 688 Runs. Which, when you plug it into Bill James's Pythagorean Theorem, gives you winning percentage of .546 and a record of 89-73. So, take it with a grain of salt, but I don't think it would be a bad team by any stretch of the imagination.

Last edited by 11BarryLarkin11; 10-14-2006 at 08:27 PM.
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