Re: 2007 Reds Armchair GM
As for Erstad, I think his defense is what makes him an intriguing option. In limited duty this year, I think he proved that he is still an elite defensive centerfielder. And, given that it would take likely nothing more than $1M to sign him, I think the risk/reward balance is fantastic.
Zone rating isn't my favorite defensive metric, but I think it does have its uses. Here's a quick comparison:
2006 Defensive Stats
Career Defensive Stats
In short, if Erstad can hit for his career averages: .286/.341/.416/.757, play top five defense in center, add a new attitude to the ballclub, and do it all for $1M, then I think he's a very interesting option.
And, when you factor in the "fountain of youth" qualities of GABP (see: Aurilia, Hatteberg, etc) and the bump that almost everyone gets when they come to Cincy (see: Phillips, Ross, etc), I think it's a reasonable gamble.
Best case, Erstad provides the fantastic defense in center that we've lacked for years. Worst case, he's a valuable player off the bench who can provide Gold Glove caliber defense at 1b and in the outfield. But, if he can bounce back, then we get Griffey out of center and over to left, where he would be more likely to stay healthy and could concentrate on getting his offense back on track.
Again, I think the risk is minimal and the upside is high. And, if Erstad doesn't get the offensive bump that most players get in Cincy, then we could always eat his paltry contract, as $1M is far from prohibitive.
But, just my $.02.
Last edited by 11BarryLarkin11; 10-14-2006 at 08:44 PM.