[westofyou]

First-order winning percentage is computed using actual runs scored and allowed. Second-order winning percentage uses equivalent runs scored and allowed, based on run elements (hits, walks, total bases, etc.) and the scoring environment (park and league adjustments). Third-order winning percentage adjusts for the quality of the opponent's hitting and pitching via EqA allowed and opponents' EqA.

Of the 204 teams to advance to the World Series, this year's Cardinals go right to the top--or bottom--of this list, the Fall Classic participants with the worst third-order winning percentage:

2006 St. Louis Cardinals: 	.471
1987 Minnesota Twins: 		.488
1973 New York Mets: 		.511
1959 Los Angeles Dodgers:  	.522
1997 Cleveland Indians: 	.525
1984 San Diego Padres: 		.528
1985 Kansas City Royals: 	.528
2000 New York Yankees: 		.530
1961 Cincinnati Reds: 		.532
2000 New York Mets 		.535
1964 St. Louis Cardinals 	.535

Only one of these teams was unfortunate to turn up on the larger mismatchup list we're discussing today, the 1961 Reds. Half of these clubs became World Champions. Technically, it's more than half, since only one winner was going to come out of the 2000 World Series. (It is no wonder that nobody paid much attention to the first Subway Series in over four decades--it wasn't just that it was New York-centric, it was also arguably the worst World Series matchup in history.)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...925c0de1297802