Originally Posted by Ltlabner
So guys who rely mostly on hitting prowess/power to get on base slow down around 33 and those who can get on base via other methods along with hitting (and corespondingly have higher IsoD) can continue to be productive longer because basically they are more paitient at the plate (ie. can get more walks, can work the count, wait for "their" pitch, etc) ? That's a grose simplification but is what I am getting out of your post.
I'm assuming that the low IsoD slow down because they start to loose that ability to consitantly use hits to get on base. Basically, their bodies start to slow down and they can't get the hits they did when they were younger.
Very interesting stuff. Thanks for the help.
I think Rick covered it pretty well. Basically, as the bat slows down, hitters need to make adjustments. Those with better IsoD rates tend to have better residual pitch recognition skill sets, which makes the necessary adjustments easier.
And Rick did some good research on the Jeff Kent comp. There are differences, of course- Kent manifested a better minor league IsoD (about 100 points) more consistently and his IsoD was about 40 points ahead of Young's. It took Kent a while to demonstrate that ability in the Show, however, as he didn't produce acceptable BB rates until age 31 (which was immediately after he first broke the 30 HR barrier).
Young didn't have terrible minor league BB rates (1 BB/9.08 AB) so it's possible that he may have the ability to, as his bat slows, do better in that area. However, I'd also suggest that Kent is most likely a bit beyond Young's highest 33+ age ceiling. Maybe more of a Kent/Aurilia hybrid. Not a bad guy to have around, but that's probably also a "best case" scenario.
Considering everything, I'd be looking to move Young for pitching if I were the Rangers. Pretty attractive bat hides some of his fielding deficiencies, a team can slot him at 2B if they like, and he's got a really decent contract (3.5 M in 2007, club option @4 M for 2008 <up to 5 M with incentives>). Offer that up to any number of clubs with SS or 2B holes, and you might just be able to get a pretty sweet return.