Re: Ohio ranks 5th in overall state football rankings
I'm a total sociologist nerd, but the correlation between their football ranking and the population of the state is .91. That means that 91% of the football rating can be attributed simply to how many people live in that state. If you account for weather and income, I bet you can get it to about 9%% or higher.
The biggest outlier on the high side is Nebraksa, one of the poorer states with decent, but not great weather. The #2 & #3 outliers on the high side are Mississippi and Alabama, two very poor states with weather condusive to football. The biggest outlier on the low side is Massachusetts, a rich state with crappy weather. #2 on the low side outlier is NY, again rich with bad weather.
I could make a similar list based only on those three variables (population, weather, income) in about 2-3 hours and get a list that would be 95% as good as ESPN's... kinda highlights how all the "value" of scouting is in the finer points of analysis.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-29-2006 at 06:13 PM.