Originally Posted by Cyclone792
*Stolen base percentages in 2005 are higher when the batters are behind in the count: 72.4 percent when behind vs. 68.8 percent when ahead. This suggests that poorer basestealers may be taking some highly unnecessary risks attempting to swipe bags.
Great thread! I hope I don't screw it up by posting something that's been covered elsewhere, but I've been scarce of late, and I'm having a tough time keeping up (I miss DanO
Anyway, the stat you noted above, rather than being surprising, is exactly what I'd expect from a conservative, by-the-books running philosophy.
When the batter is behind in the count, the pitcher is more likely to waste a breaking pitch. All things being equal, that's a good time to go. (Pitchouts and strong-armed catchers notwithstanding.) When the batter is ahead, OTOH, you have to look for him to bring the gas, making a CS easier to obtain.
Again, outstanding work, and I'm sorry if I've gone and Tim McCarver'ed everything.